Key Points
- Today’s betting tip had a luckless run last time
- Her penultimate effort was full of promise
- The forecast rainfall will benefit her
The last two days, I have provided you with antepost picks for the
Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock
and the
Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. If you missed those the first time around, be sure to check the articles out! Today, we revert back to the usual daily betting tips and my Thursday selection runs at Ffos Las.
If you’re new here, I usually publish
free horse racing tips
on a daily basis, but on occasion I put up antepost betting tips instead. On Saturdays, I also provide a Lucky 15 covering the ITV Racing action. There is also non-tipping content such as horses and trainers to follow each month, big race trends and educational guides, so there should be something for everybody!
Betting advice
- 15:37 Ffos Las -
Mayflower Rock
@ 15/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt Each Way
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Time and time again, the
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Mayflower Rock can get her head in front here!
After a couple of hard luck stories, I feel like today could be Mayflower Rock’s day. In the rest of this article, I’ll be breaking down why I’m advising a bet on her at 15/2 today. Therefore, make sure that you read on in order to understand my logic on this one.
Mayflower Rock had a luckless run last time
Last time out, Mayflower Rock raced at Yarmouth over 6f. She was bumped coming out of the stalls and subsequently flashed her tail. It was then a painful watch for her connections and punters, as Stevie Donohoe couldn’t have found more trouble during the race if he had tried.
Combining that with the rattling quick ground, which I don’t think shows her at her best, I think she had plenty of excuses for a below par effort. I’d be happy enough to draw a line through that performance and quietly confident she can bounce back today.
Mayflower Rock’s penultimate effort was full of promise
Her penultimate effort also came at Yarmouth but over the minimum 5f trip rather than 6f. Judging from the times, there was a little more juice in the ground that day than last time, despite the same official going description of “Good to Firm”. Although the trip was on the short side, she stayed in touch with the leaders and finished with a flourish to come home third, beaten by just a length.
If you look at the sectional times, Mayflower Rock actually produced a faster final furlong than the winner, Pure Passion. Interestingly, that rival has also finished second and then won again in her two runs since.
The forecast rainfall will benefit Mayflower Rock
At the time of writing, the official going description at Ffos Las is Good, Good to Firm in places, which is already more suitable for her than Yarmouth. They also have rain forecast for tomorrow with the potential for thunderstorms. As I think Mayflower Rock would benefit from some juice in the ground, the more rain that falls the better in my opinion.
It is also a long and rather horrid journey from Newmarket to Ffos Las, so I don’t think Dylan Cunha will be making it with Mayflower Rock for a day out. As far as I can see, he has never had a runner at this track and I’d say the 560 mile round trip would have something to do with it! From Newmarket in the East of England to Ffos Las in the West of Wales, let’s hope she makes the journey worthwhile for all involved!
Can Mayflower Rock justify the trip to Ffos Las?
I think Mayflower Rock has a lot going for her at Ffos Las. She had a luckless run last time, which you can draw a line through. If you look back to her penultimate effort instead, she ran a cracker over an inadequate 5f trip and she should be much happier with today’s track, trip and ground. She should also be even more pleased if the forecast rain arrives!
In terms of negatives, she remains a maiden after six runs. The latest run was also very poor, albeit I believe she has excuses for it. I believe she’ll love this track, trip and ground but she has to prove it along with bouncing back from that latest run. So there are risks attached with Mayflower Rock here.
When considering the positives and the negatives, along with the odds on offer of 15/2, I feel she is worth taking a chance on here. Given the risks attached and the low level of racing, I’m not willing to play a full 1pt each way bet. However, as I feel she has mitigating circumstances for her poor run the last day, I’m not going as low as half stakes. Therefore, we go down the middle with a stake of 0.75pt each way here.
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