Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is handicapped to strike at 1lb below his last winning mark
- He was an eye-catcher last time and this trip should suit even better
- Today’s jockey booking has a fantastic strike rate for the stable
Whenever there is a valuable Handicap, I always take note when this trainer has a runner. He routinely scoops up these nice pots with fantastic target training performances and really showcased his ability during the Racing League. Coincidentally, today’s selection was one of his Racing League winners and this one is handicapped to strike again!
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Betting advice
- 19:30 Chelmsford -
Parlando
@ 10/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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Third time can be the charm for Parlando
Parlando was on the sidelines from December 2024 until mid-October this year; a total of 313 days. Following Parlando’s return, his first run was weak, but he was much improved the second time out, and I think he’ll win this time. In this article, I’ll go through my reasons.
Parlando is handicapped to strike at 1lb below his last winning mark
As already touched upon, Ian Williams performs extremely well when it comes to valuable Handicaps, and today’s race carries a pot of £30,000. He took home tons of prize money from the Racing League this year, and my longer term readers will be used to me harping on about the man, and the way he manages to go under the radar. He did even better this year, by scooping the Cesarewitch with Beylerbeyi.
Parlando was one of Ian’s Racing League raiders. He won comfortably off a mark of 81, despite being short of room and having to switch, so he had plenty in hand off that mark, and produced an RPR of 90. Arguably he put in an even stronger performance when half a length second at Newcastle next time out. That came off a 4lb higher mark of 85, producing a RPR of 93. Now back down to a rating of 80, he looks dangerously handicapped and ready to strike.
Parlando was an eye-catcher last time and this trip should suit even better
After a 313 day absence, Parlando ran no race at all at Nottingham in October, beaten by 52 lengths. However, dropped back to an inadequate trip of 1m 0.5f at Wolverhampton, he put in a much improved performance. He was asked minimal questions early doors and found himself a long way back in the race. Everywhere he went, he then ran into trouble. It was so notable that the stewards held an inquiry into the running and riding.
With that run showing Parlando is clearly back in form, and with the step back up in trip to his favoured 1m 2f, Parlando must have a huge chance today. Interestingly the race in which he was asked minimal questions, and ran into tons of trouble, was worth around £8,000 to the winner, and now he rocks up in a race worth nearly double that. As I keep saying, when decent prize money is put up, you can count on Ian Williams turning up!
Today’s jockey booking has a fantastic strike rate for the stable
What I also find interesting about Parlando today is the booking of Edward Greatrex. Whenever I look at jockey bookings I always want to see how that jockey performs for the trainer, and it can be a telling story. Edward Greatrex certainly has a noteworthy record for Ian Williams and for all the right reasons.
If you look at Edward Greatrex’s record for Ian this season, he is 5 from 17 (29%) which is a very strong strike rate. If you had backed all of those 17 runners to a £1 level stake, you would have produced a profit of +£28.75. Furthermore, from those 17 rides, he amassed £106,937 in prize money for Ian. So if Ian wants to book a jockey that will deliver for him, you can see why he would be calling Edward Greatrex.
Can Parlando make it third time lucky?
As I routinely say, when deciding on a bet, you need to weigh up the positives, the negatives and the price. For me, there is an abundance of positives here. We know Parlando is more than capable of winning a Handicap of this nature and off his current mark. We know he’s in good form from his last run and that this trip suits him better. We also know that the jockey booked is performing very strongly for the trainer, which is fantastic as well. He’s even landed a nice draw in stall three!
In terms of the negatives, I’m struggling to find one in all honesty. He hasn’t run at Chelmsford before, so you could say that is a negative, but I see no reason that he won’t perform here at the same time. I guess there is always a risk that there is a bigger pot in mind, and this is just a further stepping stone but a £30,000 race is well worth winning. In all honesty, I’d be clutching at straws to try and find a negative here.
As you can see, we have lots of positives for Parlando and not much in the way of negatives. I do appreciate it is a competitive field that lines up for this race but you would expect that for a £30,000 Handicap. Would I be backing him if he was the 7/2 favourite, no. However, at a double figure price of 10/1 with four places on offer, I think he’s a fantastic each way bet. Stake wise, I see no reason not to have a solid 1pt each way play here.
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