Key Points
- Today’s betting tip won this race in 2023 and 2025
- He is now 1lb below his last winning mark
- He may have needed the first two runs of this campaign
We had a great start to the week with Show Biz Kid bolting up at Bath on Tuesday, then South Shore hitting the frame yesterday at Beverley. We were a little unfortunate with South Shore. Money came in for him and he went off as short as 6/4. However, he reared as the stalls opened and was denied a clear run, but once he saw daylight he stayed on well to place third.
This may be the first time you’re reading one of my articles, so allow me to introduce myself. My name is Gavin Smith, although I’m better known as RacingGav both here at Betting.co.uk and over on X (@RacingGav). I have been the resident horse racing expert here since March 2025, but I was punting and tipping for many years prior to that. The core of my work here is providing
free horse racing tips
and you’ll find a mix of daily tips and antepost picks most weeks, plus a fun Lucky 15 every Saturday.
Alongside betting tips I sometimes publish big race trends and educational guides. More recently, I have introduced trainers and horses to follow each month.
The horse I put up for May
won on his very next start. He was given a 10lb rise for that win, but there could still be more to come, especially when the ground gets a bit softer, and he is definitely worth adding to your tracker!
Betting advice
- 16:10 Ripon -
Hurstwood
@ 5/1 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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It isn’t broken, so we won’t fix it!
I
tipped Hurstwood
to win this race last year and he obliged at 11/2 (6/1 SP). I think he can repeat the feat again this year. Let me tell you why.
Hurstwood won this race in 2023 and 2025
Hurstwood loves this track and also this particular race! He is a four-time C&D winner and has placed in the top four on another four occasions. He has already won this race twice, in 2023 and 2025. He also ran in the 2024 renewal and finished second, beaten by less than two lengths.
It’s no fluke that the last three renewals of this race have seen him produce form figures of 121. Coming here has likely been the plan for him once again, and hopefully he can oblige again by landing a third win today.
Hurstwood is now 1lb below his last winning mark
His four C&D wins were off marks of 59, 58, 55 and 50, with the latter two being his wins in this race. From that, we know he is competitively handicapped off today’s mark of 53.
I appreciate that his last win in this race was off 3lb lower, but at the same time, he went on to win in October off a 1lb higher mark of 54, which largely negates that concern. The bigger concern I’d have is that the two latest wins were on Good to Soft going and it’s currently rated Good. However, he has managed to win twice on Good to Firm, and his overall record suggests he is versatile.
Hurstwood may have needed the first two runs of this campaign
Hurstwood is nine years old with 82 runs under his belt, and he isn’t suddenly going to find improvement. In his prime he was rated 90, and he’s now running off marks in the 50’s. So we know he isn’t the force of old.
Another interesting thing is that Hurstwood has never won fresh. He tends to improve for racing. In 2023, he won this race on his third start of the season. In 2024, he was second, which was also on his third start. In 2025, he won this race on his second start of the campaign, but he had a strong first run, suggesting he was further forward.
Given that he was off for 165 days from November to April, he will have needed the first two runs of this season. He took a big step forward from his first run to the second, and similar progression will see him running a huge race today. It may have been intentional, as those first two runs have resulted in his mark dropping from 55 to 53, and every little helps.
Can Hurstwood win this race for a third time?
There are certainly plenty of positives for Hurstwood today. Firstly, he won this race in 2023 and 2025, and came second in 2024. Those three runs were off marks of 55, 56 and 50, and today he returns off a mark of 53, so he certainly looks handicapped to strike. Claimer Ethan Tindall rides, which takes 5lb off Hurstwood’s weight and effectively sees him racing off a mark of 48.
In terms of negatives, he is a nine-year-old, and with 82 runs under his belt he is exposed. As a result, he is vulnerable to younger legs and more importantly, a less exposed and/or better handicapped rival. His last two wins were on Good to Soft and he may prefer it softer. There is also a risk that he is regressing, and his latest run may be as good as it gets.
All facts considered, I think he is worth a play at an each way price but, I have decided to trim the stake down to 0.75pt each way. Arguably it should be half stakes, but given his record in this race I think what I’ve decided on is fair.
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3 hours ago
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