Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip has had excuses to date
- This horse is a dual C&D winner and he drops in grade today
- He is 7lb below his last winning mark and handicapped to strike
We head up to Ayr for today’s selection who runs in the 2m 0.5f Handicap Chase for Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore. I think he has had excuses so far this season, and with conditions to suit, down in grade and handicapped to strike, I think he will run a huge race here at a double figure price!
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Betting advice
- 15:43 Ayr -
Netywell
@ 11/1 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
Back Netywell with Betfred @ 11/1
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Netywell can show his class today with conditions to suit!
I believe that Netywell is better than a 0-120 Handicap, and I think he’ll prove that today. Considering there are other factors that will suit him too, he will take a fair bit of beating up at Ayr today. With a generous double figure price on offer, I think we should take advantage.
Netywell has had excuses to date
Netywell is definitely seen at his best when the ground is testing, as is often the case with French-bred horses. Based on RPRs, four of his best five performances came when the going was Soft or Heavy. The same applies to his career wins, with four on Heavy ground, and the fifth on Soft ground.
For six of Netywell’s last seven races, the ground was either Good, or Good to Soft, which is too quick for him. Last time out at Haydock the official going was Soft but the official winning time of 5.93s suggests the ground was closer to Good to Soft, and leaning towards Good. I believe the official going was somewhat misleading there.
At the time of writing, the official going at Ayr is Soft, with light rain forecast. Soft ground should be testing enough for him, but the more rain that falls, the better it will be for Netywell. It can never get too testing for this horse.
This horse is a dual C&D winner and he drops in grade today
It’s also worth noting that since February 2024, Netywell has been running in Class 2 and Class 3 races. Prior to that, he had two runs in Class 4 company and won both. In addition, he won the race prior to those two wins which was a Class 3. However, with a generous 4lb drop from 121 to 117, Netywell can now run in this 0-120 Class 4 Handicap.
As well as having a great record in Class 4 company, with four wins and two places from 12 runs, he also loves the 2m 0.5f trip around Ayr. His three C&D runs over fences have resulted in form figures of 141. With a drop in grade and returning to C&D where he always performs well, it’s hard not to get excited about his chances today.
Netywell is 7lb below his last winning mark and handicapped to strike
In addition to having his ideal conditions today, dropping in grade and being a dual C&D winner, Netywell has also fallen 7lb below his last winning mark. His latest win at Newcastle was off a mark of 124. The win prior to that was over this C&D off a mark of 117. With a generous 4lb drop from the handicapper, Netywell looks handicapped to strike.
I also think it is worth looking at his form this season, as it has worked out extremely well. On his seasonal reappearance he came in behind Thistle Ask, who has won three times since, and also finished second to Jonbon in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Netywell’s second start at Aintree has been well-franked too, with the winner, and the horses in second, third and fifth place having won six races between them since.
Even the horse who came in last that day, Alcedo, has won since. Netywell fell on his next start but the first, second, and fourth placed horses have all won since that race too. Last, but certainly not least, we have Netywell’s run at Haydock, where the form has been strongly franked again, with the second and fourth placed horses both winning on their next start.
Can Netywell return to winning ways today?
In my opinion, there are a ton of positives for Netywell here. He has excuses for his runs so far this season, he has his ideal conditions, and he is down in grade. In addition to that, he is a dual C&D winner who is now 7lb below his last winning mark, and his latest C&D win came off this mark.
In terms of negatives, he has been in poor form this season with form figures of 38F8. Last season wasn’t that great either, with form figures of 3P72P. Also, dropping down to a 0-120 Handicap, he is towards the top of the weights and is set to carry 11st 13lb, which is quite a hefty burden. The stable form also has to be considered, as they have only recorded one winner from their last 24 runners, which is a strike rate of just 4%.
All facts considered, I think Netywell looks a fantastic bet at 11/1. But given the recent form of the stable and the horse, I have trimmed this bet down to 0.75pt each way.
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