Key Points
- Today’s betting tip returned to form last time out
- She remains in Class 4 company but only faces fillies here
- Hector Crouch has been booked to ride and he has a strong record for the stable
I had an antepost selection for you on Tuesday, a day off yesterday and I am back with a betting tip for you today. This one looks to have a great chance with conditions to suit and I’m confident she will run a big race!
If you’re new to my content here, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing tipster here at Betting.co.uk. As already touched upon, I produce both daily betting tips and antepost selections. In addition to this, I produce other types of content such as big race trends and educational guides.
If you liked the antepost article on Tuesday and want more of that type of content, be sure to check out the other antepost articles that I already have live. These include
the King George VI Chase, Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and the Grand National.
Betting advice
- 18:15 Chelmsford –
Aramis Grey
@ 15/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Hector Crouch can sweep late with Aramis Grey!
This race looks perfect for Aramis Grey for a multitude of different reasons and in this article, I’ll break them all down for you. Therefore, make sure you continue to read on through the article, in order to fully understand my logic.
Aramis Grey has largely been running well in defeat all campaign and I do feel she really deserves to have got her head in front. It hasn’t happened for her as yet but hopefully that can change today and she can break the evergrowing losing run!
It worried me that after the two runs at Kempton prior to her last that she didn’t seem to fire at all, sparking concerns that she may be going the wrong way and we might not get her back. However, she returned to form in great style last time finishing third and only being beaten 1.75 lengths, just tiring late on at a stiff track in Newcastle.
Aramis Grey remains in Class 4 company but only faces other fillies today
Despite a strong run the last day up at Newcastle, where she produced a RPR of 90 off her mark of 84, the handicapper has kindly decided to leave her on an unaltered mark of 84. Her latest win came off a mark of 92 and this campaign she has produced RPRs of 99, 98 and 96 in defeat, so she is certainly capable of winning off this mark.
Interestingly, that latest run came in Class 4 (0-85) company and whilst that is the case again here today, this race is limited to her own sex and that should make life much easier than competing against the boys. If you limit her form to races against her own sex, the last three efforts have produced form figures of 432 and RPRs of 101, 98 and 96. Hopefully she can produce a similar level of performance here, in which case she could blow this opposition away.
Hector Crouch has been booked to ride Aramis Grey and he has a strong record for the stable
I do also find it eye-catching that Hector Crouch has been booked to ride by the trainer, Jack Jones. Hector has a strong record aboard Jack’s horse with seven wins from thirty six starts (19%) and twenty two from thirty six (61%) finishing in the first four home. If we limit it to the current year only, it is four wins from twenty three rides (17%) with thirteen out of twenty three (57%) finishing in the first four. For some context here, Jack Jones is operating at an 11% strike rate this year.
The good statistics don’t stop there either as Aramis Grey has two wins (22%) and three places (56%) from nine runs here at Chelmsford, so she clearly enjoys it here. She also has three wins (27%) and five places (73%) from eleven runs in Class 4 company. Finally Hector has only ridden her once and he finished second that day, so the pair seem to get on well from the limited evidence we have.
Can Aramis Grey end her losing run?
Aramis Grey has clocked up a losing run of twenty six races now but I really do not feel that it does her justice. She is far from finished and has run some fantastic races in defeat. For the many reasons outlined above, I feel she has an excellent chance of breaking her losing streak here. In addition to that, I think the race could play out perfectly for her. She is a horse that gets held up in rear, with a view to delivering a strong late challenge.
On paper, this race looks perfect for that with Gaiety Musical, French Sad, Cognisance and Stellenbosch all likely to go forward and make this a ferocious gallop. Should that happen, they could cut one another’s throats and set this up for Aramis Grey to swoop past them all at tthe finish.
On the negative side, there is the possibility she has found a way not to win, which is a concern. In addition, she is drawn widest of all in stall ten, but as she's a hold up type anyway, she will be dropped in regardless, making it less of a concern than for a front runner. Here, all that Hector Crouch has to do is drop to the rear and tack across behind them.
I’d be lying if I said Aramis Grey's list of losing runs isn’t concerning, but at the same time, she is long overdue a win. Likewise, whilst her draw is bad on paper, it’s less of an inconvenience than it would be for some other runners in that field. But with all facts considered, I am going to trim the stake down to 0.75pt each way to reflect the risks.
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