Key Points
- Today’s betting tip drops to 0-80 company
- It’s a drop back in trip for him, but the strong pace could set it up
- This horse has landed a lovely draw in stall two and Luke Morris is on board
It’s Tuesday and it’s time for my first betting tip of the week. I have selected one from the action at Lingfield today, who is a very interesting horse at a fantastic price. I think 7/1 completely underestimates his chance in a race that could set up for him, and I feel he’s better than the level of opposition he’ll face today!
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Betting advice
- 19:20 Lingfield -
Metallo
@ 7/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
As I write this article, the
best horse racing odds
for Metallo are currently available at bet365. The rest of the market are pricing him up shorter, so the value is clearly at bet365 for this one! If you don’t already have an account, you can claim a great bonus too. If you sign up and
bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets. Well worth exploring if you don’t already have an account.
I’m shocked that 7/1 is available for Metallo and I cannot see that price lasting. In the remainder of this article, I’ll break down my case for Metallo, so keep reading to understand the logic behind picking him today
There are many positives for Metallo today, but the biggest is the drop to 0-80 company. After three qualifying runs over 6.5f, 7f, and 7f, Metallo was given an opening mark of 87 which looked harsh. That said, he went on to place fourth in Listed company, which pushed him up a bit further to 89.
Whilst he has run some excellent races in defeat, producing RPRs as high as 95, 93, and 92, he hasn’t recorded a win since his Maiden at Salisbury back in June 2023. However, he has placed in four of his races, including a neck defeat earlier this year here at Lingfield.
In the meantime, the handicapper has gradually relented and Metallo has dropped to a mark of 80. Which means he now qualifies for 0-80 Handicaps, and I think he could simply have too much class for this level of opposition. Based on his best efforts throughout his career, he is clearly handicapped to strike today.
Metallo has been tried over trips varying from 6.5f to 1m 4f, but his best three efforts have come over trips of 1m, 1m 1.5f, and 1m 2f. Whilse he is clearly versatile, I’d say his ideal is 1m to 1m 2f. Over 1m, he needs a strong pace to aim at, then he can outstay them at the finish, which looks to be what he’ll get here.
Let’s look at how this is likely to play out. Frostmagic and Special Ghaiyyath both like to lead. Frostmagic is drawn in stall one, and should bounce out and go straight into the lead. Whereas Rose Dawes and Special Ghaiyyath go from stall nine, and Rose will need to work hard to get on the pace from there. However, I can see them both hitting the front and taking each other on.
In terms of the other runners, Signcastle City, Dontspoilasale, Studios, and Buy The Dip are all horses who like to race prominently. With them all fighting for position behind the leaders, it should keep the front pair honest if they try to slow the pace down. All of this should ensure a pretty ferocious gallop from the stalls to the line, which will be perfect for Metallo. He doesn’t need to be dropped out last but tends to race towards the rear of the field. At this level, he should have the pace to travel behind them and then power past them all as they turn for home.
As a general rule, the lower the draw the better at Lingfield and Metallo has stall two. Whilst the draw isn’t so important for horses that are usually held up or sat deep in midfield, it's still better to be drawn low than high. If nothing else, it gives the jockey more options. Ideally, he will jump out from stall two and sit midfield, exerting as little energy as possible, which would be perfect.
I also find it interesting that Luke Morris is back on board today. He’s extremely experienced, and very strong, both of which could be huge factors here. Plus, Metallo seems to respond well to him. In his five runs this season, he has produced RPRs of 88, 73, 88, 83 and 79. For all three runs in the 80’s Luke Morris was riding.
Some horses just go better for certain jockeys and that could be the case here. It could also be that Metallo is a touch on the lazy side, and Luke’s no-nonsense style and strong riding brings out the best in him. Whichever it is, it works, so I’m very happy to see Luke back in the saddle here. If Metallo is beaten, it won’t be for a lack of effort on his part, I can assure you of that!
Metallo won his second race, but has since run another 15 times without winning. I think today, he can make that right by landing his second career win. The reduced mark certainly gives him every chance, as it means he can drop to 0-80 company. Although some may be concerned about the drop back to 1m here, I think it could be perfect for him given the strength of pace expected today. He has landed a lovely draw in stall two and Luke Morris is back in the saddle, both of which strengthen my confidence.
In terms of negatives, the glaringly obvious one is his record of 1 from 17. However, he hasn't been running dreadfully. He has placed in Class 2 and Class 3 Handicaps, and was beaten by just a neck in a Class 4 (0-85) Handicap. In that 0-85 race, he was beaten by Wyld Bill, who is a smart horse and beat Metallo in a sprint finish. The only other semi-negative is that he will carry 9st 9lb here, but that's because he is the best horse in the field.
Overall, I think he has a fantastic chance of winning today, and certainly a far stronger one than his 7/1 odds suggest. At this level, I don’t think Metallo would look out of place at a much smaller price, and with so much value I think he’s worth a strong 1pt each way bet.
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