Key Points
- My Tuesday betting tip loves it here at Newcastle
- The drop back to a 0-60 Handicap could be the key for him
- On paper it looks like the pace will be weak which will suit
There are four meetings today: two over the Jumps at Catterick and Leicester, plus two on the AW at Newcastle and Southwell. I’ve selected a horse at Newcastle for today’s betting tip who I think is underestimated at a double figure price.
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Betting advice
- 16:12 Newcastle -
Pallas Lord
@ 11/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
The best odds by far come from bet365!
At the time of writing there is a clear stand out when it comes to the
best horse racing odds
for Pallas Lord All of the other bookmakers have him priced between 15/2 and 9/1, but bet365 offers 11/1. As well as the value betting odds, bet365 has a superb sign up offer for new customers too. If you
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This Newcastle regular can produce another win here!
Pallas Lord frequents Newcastle racecourse so often, that he likely knows it as well as his own stable at Donald Whillans’ yard. In this article, I’ll explain why I think this particular race can see him return to the winner’s enclosure.
Pallas Lord loves it here at Newcastle
Pallas Lord has run at Newcastle 53 times to date, with today’s run being number 54. From those runs, he has produced nine victories, 11 seconds and four thirds. He certainly knows his way around this track, and most crucially of all, we have seen that he knows how to win here!
Four of his nine wins were over this 7f trip, with the other five over 1m, so he is clearly versatile in that respect. His four C&D wins were off marks of 60, 59, 61 and 61, so he’s handicapped to strike again today off mark of 58.
The drop back into a 0-60 Handicap could be the key for Pallas Lord
What I find interesting today is that Pallas Lord drops down to a 0-60 Handicap. During December and January, he ran here four times with form figures of 3232. In all of those runs, he was beaten by less than two lengths, and for the two second places, he was only beaten by a head and a neck respectively. His defeat to Trais Fluors by a head was a particularly creditable effort. I tipped Trais Fluors that day, as he was handicapped to win, and he was exceptional, so there was no shame in that defeat.
Anyway, the point I’m making is that all four of those runs came in 0-60 Handicaps. But the last two races where he finished fourth and fifth, beaten by 4.5 lengths and 8.5 lengths in 0-65 company. Returned to a 0-60 Handicap today, I think we can see him make a strong comeback.
On paper it looks like the pace will be weak which will suit Pallas Lord
Eleven horses are declared to run in this race, but it doesn’t look as though there’s much in the way of pace. Age Of Time and Reenie’s Dream can race prominently but they wouldn’t be out and out front runners. Amelia’s Joy and Brother Dave are hold up horses, and the others will more often than not, just drop into midfield.
With Pallas Lord typically enjoying the front runner role, I think he can use that to great effect here. When you are looking to run from the front, you want to get an easy lead, where you’re not forced to over race, and you can dictate the pace. I think that’s what will happen here. Pallas Lord will pop out in front, control the race, and make all.
As a general rule, a high draw is the ideal for sprints on the straight track at Newcastle, and that’s what Pallas Lord has here, a draw in stall nine. More often than not, the stand side rail can be used as a golden highway, and hopefully Pallas Lord can make use of it.
Can Pallas Lord produce his tenth win at Newcastle today?
There are plenty of positives for Pallas Lord. He loves it at Newcastle, he has tons of experience, and most importantly, he knows how to win here, with 53 runs resulting in 11 wins, and 15 top three finishes. I think the drop back to a 0-60 Handicap is important too, as that’s the level where he was in great form at the end of last year and the start of this one.
The lack of pace is a huge advantage too, and it gives him every chance of making all here, especially drawn towards the stand rail. Finally, I also like the booking of Jason Hart considering he has been on board Pallas Lord for four of his wins and two of his second places. In terms of negatives, he was disappointing in his last two races, especially so the latest run. However, I think he paid the price for trying to keep up with a well-backed and strong winner. There’s also the fact that he has just nine wins from 54 runs on the AW, so he is hardly prolific, but that’s to be expected with a horse rated 58.
Overall, I think Pallas Lord has a great chance of making the frame in this 0-60 Handicap. Drawn with the chance to get an easy lead, I think he can win this off his current mark, and he looks a great each way bet at 11/1 with be. Given the risks attached with a low grade AW handicapper, and his last two disappointing runs, it’s just half stakes for this Pallas Lord today.
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