Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is 5lb below his last winning mark
- He drops to a Class 6 Handicap for the first time
- This horse should love the conditions today
Overall, I am happy with the performance of the horses I tipped at the weekend. I put up Toca Madera at 14/1 as my main betting tip for Saturday, and he was denied late by just half a length, after going off at 6/1. We had the value and very nearly the result to go with it, plus a nice profit for the place part of the bet.
Toca Madera also featured in my Lucky 15, and the only other horse to run was Venetian Sun, who won the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at 11/4. The other two horses, Langstone and First Instinct were non-runners due to track issues at Haydock and a bad scope. With an 11/4 win, a 14/1 place, and two non-runners with our stake returned, we more than doubled our original outlay.
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Betting advice
- 16:30 Bath -
Show Biz Kid
@ 9/2 (3 places) -
1pt each way
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Show Biz Kid should be ready to strike here!
The Julia & Shelley Birkett-trained Show Biz Kid is my choice today for a multitude of different reasons, which I’ll break down in the rest of this article.
Show Biz Kid is now 5lb below his last winning mark
Show Biz Kid runs off 65 today, which is 5lb below his last winning mark. If he turns up in the same form, he’ll take an awful lot of beating. For context, that victory came off a mark of 70, producing a RPR of 78.
Although that was his only win from 23 starts, it hasn’t been his performance level that has let him down. Show Biz Kid ran to the same RPR of 78 on three further occasions, finishing second on each occasion by half a length, one length and 1.5 lengths. He has also recorded three third places, where he ran to 79, 79 and 81. Let’s face it, if he can perform anywhere near those figures off a reduced mark of 65, he’ll be very tough to beat.
Show Biz Kid drops to a Class 6 Handicap for the first time
Another thing I find interesting today is that Show Biz Kid has run 17 times in Class 5 Handicaps, winning once, and placing five times. He has also raced in Class 4 company five times, placing twice. He even had a crack at a Class 2 Handicap, but didn’t place.
I thought that he ran a cracker last time out at Windsor. A slightly slow and awkward start didn’t help his cause, but he recovered well. Ross Birkett tried to keep a lid on him towards the rear of the field as he raced quite keenly. He made some nice headway later in the race, and finished strongly, but only managed fourth place. However, he was only a length away from the winner Hengest, who has since franked the form by winning again.
Today is the first time Show Biz Kid has been entered for a Class 6 Handicap. This race is for horses rated 0-65 and he has sneaked in right at the top with his mark of exactly 65. This lesser race could be exactly what’s needed to see him get his head in front again. I’ll certainly be disappointed if he isn’t right there at the finish line today.
Show Biz Kid should love the conditions today
Everything about today’s race should suit Show Biz Kid. From his top six performances three were on Good going, and the others were on Good to Firm. So the official going rating of Firm, Good to Firm in places, here at Bath should be right up his street.
While he has form from 1m to 1m 4f, I think his best trip is 1m 2f, which is the distance he’ll run over today. He also seems to prefer a stiff track, with a strong pace to aim at and it looks likely he’ll have both of those. Today also sees stable jockey Dylan Hogan back in the saddle, which is another big plus.
In terms of pace in the race, Bobby Dassler and Dissident like to go forward. Then we have Annexation, Knightmare, and Jimmy Mark who also tend to race prominently. At this level, with the race run to suit, Show Biz Kid should be able to pick them all off towards the finish before going on to win. Back in open company,
Can Show Biz Kid get his head back in front?
This appears to be perfect placement by Julia & Shelley Birkett. The track, going, and trip should all be ideal for Show Biz Kid, plus he is handicapped to strike at 5lb below his last winning mark. The other big factor is the drop to a Class 6 Handicap (0-65) especially as this race is for horses who haven’t won on Turf this season. This further weakens the race and it looks like the perfect opportunity for Show Biz Kid.
In terms of negatives, the main one is that he has only managed one win from 23 starts, which is undeniably a worrying strike rate. However, it is offset by the fact he has run to similar levels, or even better than his winning performance, he simply hasn’t had the rub of the green.
This feels like now or never time for Show Biz Kid. If he can’t win this (unless he has a very strong and valid excuse), I won’t be rushing to back him again. Given the perfect opportunity today, let’s hope he takes advantage of it.
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