Key Points
- Today’s betting tip caught my attention last time out
- This horse has excuses for several of his below par starts
- With further improvement to come, a 3lb rise underestimates him
We have four meetings today, three over the Jumps at Bangor-On-Dee, Newcastle, and Limerick (IRE), plus Flat racing on the AW at Wolverhampton. However, it’s the opener at Newcastle that has caught my attention. There is one lining up in the 2m 6f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle who I feel could be a big improver, and at 5/2, he’s a fantastic bet in my eyes.
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Betting advice
- 14:30 Newcastle -
Jehol De Thaix
@ 5/2 -
1pt Win
Bet365 has the best odds for Jehol De Thaix
At the time of writing, bet365 is offering the
best horse racing odds
of 5/2 for Jehol De Thaix. That’s not the end of the value either. If you open a new account and bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. All things considered, it’s worth opening an account if you don’t already have one!
Jehol De Thaix could be significantly better than 103!
In his six races to date, Jehol De Thaix has shown me that he has an ability level that exceeds his current handicap mark of 103. I think this race could be his chance to show that, and now I’ll tell you why.
Jehol De Thaix caught my attention last time out
The last time Jehol De Thaix raced, I said this to my Discord members:
“A horse I like and this better ground should be ideal for him. However, he's been absent, so you would expect him to come on for the run. Hopefully he runs an eye-catching race but doesn't win today and then he could be one for next time out.”
He did exactly as expected. He ran a huge race but didn’t win. He raced at the rear of the field, made headway, and went second after two out. He looked like he could win late on, but he bunny-hopped the last hurdle, losing momentum. To his credit, he stayed on all the way to the line and if it had been a longer run in, he may well have worried the winner.
I’d say the mistimed jump at the last was the result of Jehol De Thaix lacking a recent run, but with that out of the way, he should be at his peak here. Frustratingly, he ran slightly too well, as he picked up a 3lb rise, but I see him finding far more than 3lbs of improvement with race fitness on his side.
Jehol De Thaix had excuses for several of his below par starts
I feel that Jehol De Thaix can be excused for several below par races to be honest, and that leaves him open to a lot of improvement. He is a horse who wants decent ground, which is why he missed the winter this campaign. That said, his Bumper run was on Soft going, which wouldn’t have been ideal, but he still managed to finish second, beaten by just a neck.
Two of his five starts over Hurdles were on unsuitably soft going, and those were his worst races to date. Furthermore, although his other three runs were on better ground, they all came after lengthy breaks of 173 days, 237 days and 125 days, respectively. In my opinion he hasn’t had ideal conditions and been fully fit at the same time, but that all changes today.
The official going at Newcastle is Good to Soft, Soft in places, which is more testing than I would have liked, but with a dry forecast, I’m hoping it’s no worse than Good to Soft come race time. It also helps that he runs in the first race, rather than tackling a course that’s been chewed up during the day. If Jehol De Thaix is happy on the ground, this could be his day.
The 3lb rise could underestimate Jehol De Thaix here
As mentioned, I would have rather Jehol De Thaix hadn’t picked up a 3lb rise for his latest run, which has taken him from 100 to 103. However, it was a very eye-catching run, so I’m not surprised the handicapper thought so too.
He has race fitness on his side now, hopefully the ground will be in his favour, and considering how strongly he stayed over 2m 5f at Haydock, he should relish the extra furlong at Newcastle tonight. So if anything, his finish should be even more powerful this time around.
I’d be near certain that we haven’t seen the best of Jehol De Thaix to date and I think we have every chance of seeing his best today. I’m hopeful he proves he’s better than his mark of 103 and sufficiently well handicapped to win this race. He could go on to have a very productive summer campaign in general given better ground and weaker opposition.
Can Jehol De Thaix land his first victory under Rules?
In simple terms, I believe he can. Jehol De Thaix has shown plenty of promise, he has race fitness on his side now, he should have ground to suit, and he should also enjoy the step up to 2m 6f. With all of these factors, I think he has plenty of improvement to come.
In terms of the negatives, the only real concern I’d have is the ground. I’d have preferred it a little better than the present rating of Good to Soft, Soft in places. However, with a dry forecast, I’m hoping it will be spot on for him by this afternoon.
I think there is value in his current price of 5/2, and if I knew the ground would be perfect for him, I’d be tempted to stake higher, but with that slight niggling concern, I’m sticking with a 1pt win bet.
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