Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has eye-catching form in the book
- This horse is well handicapped off a mark of 109
- Conditions are ideal for him today, so he has no excuses
It was great to have a winner yesterday in the form of Jehol De Thaix! I felt he was well handicapped with plenty of improvement to come and despite a handful of jumping errors, he clearly had sufficient scope to win! Our 1pt Win bet at 5/2 returned 3.5pts. Hopefully we fire in back to back winners with today’s selection! This one is available at a very tasty price of 14/1, which completely underestimates his chance.
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Betting advice
- 14:50 Wincanton -
Geezer Rockstar
@ 14/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Book your tickets for the Geezer Rockstar show!
Like Jehol De Thaix yesterday, Geezer Rockstar is another horse we have yet to see the best of. But he looks to have his ideal conditions today and hopefully he can put on a show for us.
The Harry Fry-trained Geezer Rockstar won a Bumper at Taunton in great style. He went about the task with great professionalism and won easily. He looked a lovely prospect, and the form worked out pretty well, with the horse in second place, Jackpot d’Athou, later receiving an opening handicap mark of 121 over Hurdles. Call To Duty (3rd), Il Va De Soi (4th), and Star Of Affinity (5th) are now rated 115, 108, and 114 respectively.
His next start was his Hurdles debut. He was beaten by 15 lengths there, but the race was won by Fiercely Proud, who is now rated 137. Ryan’s Rocket was the runner up, and he is now rated 132. The horse in third, Tregele, subsequently bolted up to win a Hurdles race by 17 lengths off a handicap mark of 104. And the fifth placed horse, Beny Nahar Road, is now rated 112 over fences. So what may have been a little underwhelming at the time, reads well with hindsight.
The final piece of Geezer Rockstar’s form that I really like is his Maiden Hurdle win at Ascot. I’m not usually one to get excited by Maiden Hurdle form, but this race is an exception. Geezer Rockstar rallied well to win that day, and the horses in second and third were Zanndabad and Vincenzo. Zanndabad is now rated 131 and Vincenzo is rated 141 over fences. All of this form suggests Geezer Rockstar is significantly better than his current mark of 109.
Geezer Rockstar is well handicapped off a mark of 109
I’ve also looked at potential reasons for Geezer Rockstar’s underwhelming performances of late, and I think I have the answers. He was pulled up in three of his Hurdles races, which were all run on ground that didn't suit. The first was on Heavy going and other two were on Good to Soft. Furthermore, after the two back to back runs on Good to Soft, he had wind surgery. So I’d say he was both unhappy on the ground, and struggling with his breathing.
Two other underwhelming runs were in hot company. His 15th place at Sandown came in a Class 2 Handicap paying over ÂŁ50,000 to the winner, so that was always going to be a tough ask. His penultimate effort where he finished eighth, was another Class 2 Handicap race. Jockey Bryan Carver also said that he hung right that day, which is a huge disadvantage around Plumpton which is a sharp left-handed track. It's also worth noting that his penultimate run was his first after a 210-day break, so there is every chance he needed that run.
His final poor run was last time out at Kempton. Again, I feel he had excuses for that performance. Firstly, he was returning from a short break of 77 days, so he may well have needed it again. Secondly, the ground was Good to Soft, and he raced down the inside at the business end, which most had avoided as it looked more testing than out wider. Finally, he was carrying 12st 2lb, so it’s easier to forgive him getting tired. I appreciate there's plenty to forgive, but at a price of 14/1, I’m willing to take a chance on him.
Geezer Rockstar has ideal conditions today, so he has no excuses
We have seen both during his Maiden Hurdle win at Ascot and his close second at Chepstow three runs back, that when he has his ideal conditions, he can run a big race. He won the former and he arguably should have won the latter, as he was short of room up the stands side rail and then he was just held by a head at the line. In those two performances, he ran to RPRs of 116 and 113, so he has to be of interest here off a reduced mark of just 106, especially as his best could be to come.
In my opinion, he gets his ideal conditions here. First and foremost, it’s genuine Good ground being reported at Wincanton, which he should absolutely love. Secondly, some of his best performances, including two wins, have been on right-handed tracks, which he gets today. Finally, when he ran at Ascot he looked like a horse who would appreciate going further, so I think he will relish this 2m 5.5f trip.
The stamina element is backed up by his pedigree. His Dam, Rock’s Field, was a 2m 6f Hurdle winner, and sister to 3m Hurdle and a 3m 1f Chase winner Themoonandsixpence. His sire, Getaway, was himself a Group and Listed winner on the Flat, over trips up to 1m 7f and has since produced many great Stayers.
Can Geezer Rockstar land his first Handicap win?
The handicapper gave Geezer Rockstar an opening mark of 121, which in my opinion is much closer to his ability level than his current mark of 109. I think he’ll relish this quicker ground, he should also enjoy this longer trip, and with a recent run under his belt, he should be at peak fitness too. I also feel he’s had excuses for most of his lesser efforts, but now it’s time for him to deliver!
In terms of the negatives, he obviously has a very patchy record including poor runs the last twice, so we are taking it on faith that he can bounce back to form with his ideal conditions. He is a horse that has been hampered by breathing issues previously, and routinely wears a tongue tie, so there is a risk that his wind isn't 100% right.
At a price of 14/1, he is too good to overlook, but with the concerns mentioned, I’m only prepared to play half stakes. For me, he has no excuses today and I’m very hopeful he’ll easily outrun his odds. I’ll be disappointed if he isn't in the frame at least and hopefully we can add another winner to our list!
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