
As we move into July I’m hoping to kick the new month off with an 18/1 winner! There is a level of risk attached to my selection, but at the price she’s well worth backing, and could be underestimated.
For those new around here, I’m RacingGav, the resident horse racing expert at Betting.co.uk. The majority of my articles are free horse racing tips, but I also provide horses and trainers to follow, collate big race trends, and publish educational guides. Gaining an understanding of the UK Handicap System is essential, and as my selection today runs in cheekpieces, my article covering different types of horse racing headgear is also relevant.
Most bookies are offering 16/1 for Lilykoy to win, with some as short as 14/1. But once again, the best horse racing odds are available at bet365 who are showing a generous price of 18/1 at the time of writing. It’s worth having a bet365 account for the consistent value alone, but better yet, if you sign up and bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets. Tons of value right there!
It would be a superb start to July if Lilykoy can win for us today. I certainly think she will outrun her 18/1 odds, and in the next few sections, I’ll explain why.
After making no impression on her first three starts, Lilykoy looked like a different animal last time out at Windsor where she was sent off at 66/1. Why? Well her first three races were over inadequate trips of 6f to 7f, but last time she stepped up in trip significantly, to 1m 3.5f, and she looked like she loved it.
She was denied a clear run down the inside when the pace lifted, which didn’t help her cause. Then just as she was picking up some pace, she ran into a wall of horses. Her jockey switched her to the near side to get a clear run, and she rallied well, ending up just half a length away from placing. Given a bit of luck in running, she would easily have hit the frame.
If we dive into the data, Lilykoy produced the fastest final furlong at Windsor. From 1f out to the line she was timed at 12.84s, with the next best being the winner at 13.19s. Lilykoy hit the line travelling at 32.57mph, when the horses who placed first and second were only clocking 28.59mph and 28.99mph respectively.
That Windsor race was a Classified Stakes where Lilykoy was only rated 30, but after reassessment the handicapper has now rated her at 45. That means she is eligible to run in this 0-55 Handicap today. Although a Class 6 Handicap doesn’t sound all that great, this is only Lilikoy’s fourth race, and from what I’ve seen, she is highly likely to go on to better things.
Lilykoy comes into this race with the lowest rating of 45. As such, in accordance with how Handicap races work, she would carry the lowest weight, which would be 9st 3lb. However, as she is a three-year-old, she receives a 12lb weight for age allowance, which means she will only carry 8st 5lb here, which could prove crucial.
Due to the light weight, Saffie Osborne will take the ride. In the last 12 months, Saffie has managed to ride off as low as 8st 2lb, so making the weight won’t be an issue, and she is a fantastic jockey. She has ridden four times for trainer Dylan Cunha this year, resulting in three finishing in the first three places.
Lilikoy has a nice low draw in stall 4, which is a great help. I also think the more demanding 1m 4f at Epsom could suit her even better than the 1m 3.5f at Windsor, given she has plenty of stamina in her pedigree on her dam’s side. The cheekpieces which seemed to work well last time are retained, and I’m very hopeful of a big run from her today.
I think there is far more to like about Lilykoy than her 18/1 odds suggest. I thought it was an eye-catching run last time when she suffered trouble in-running before staying on strongly. As she finished just out of the places, it has enabled her to sail under the radar here. With the switch to Handicap company off a low mark and her 12lb allowance, she looks to have every chance.
In terms of negatives, she is yet to set the world alight, but she has only had four runs, so time is on her side, but that doesn’t guarantee she’ll sprout wings. Epsom is also a very unique and quirky track, which some horses simply don’t like. She will need to show she can handle the track, especially at this early stage of her career.
There are a lot of positives for Lilykoy today but there are a couple of concerns too. At a price of 18/1, I think she is certainly worth an each way bet, albeit at half stakes today.
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