Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is an eight-time winner at Kempton
- This horse is now handicapped at 15lb below his last winning mark
- He drops into 0-60 company for the first time since he was a three-year-old
For today’s betting tips, we head to Kempton’s evening meeting where a horse has caught my eye. He has been a great servant to the game, and this will be his 100th run under Rules. In his 99 runs to date, he has recorded 15 victories, and I think he has a great chance of landing win number 16 here. Especially as tonight’s race is on the AW, where he has 10 wins from 43 runs, which is a very healthy strike rate!
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Betting advice
- 20:30 Kempton -
Treacherous
@ 13/2 (4 places) - 0.5pt each way
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Let’s see the old boy show the youngsters how it’s done!
As already touched upon, Treacherous is very much in his twilight years now. He is 11 years old, and he’ll be 12 in the New Year, but as he approaches the 100th run of his racing career, I think he still has a thing or two to show us.
Treacherous is an eight-time winner at Kempton
I absolutely love Treacherous, he’s been racing for over eight years, and it will be a sad day when he finally reaches the end of his career. With that day looming, I’m hoping he can go out with a bang! A strike rate of 15 wins from 99 runs is solid enough, especially with a further 22 places. However, if you look at his form for the All Weather only, he has 10 wins from 43 starts, plus 11 places, which really is a fantastic record.
Looking at his performance for Kempton specifically, he has eight wins and eight places from 28 runs, which is an impressive record. Even more so when you consider some of those runs were competing as high as Class 2. Returning to Kempton, he has to be respected and I’m hoping it brings out the best in him. If it does, the opposition will need to have their wits about them.
Treacherous is now handicapped at 15lb below his last winning mark
The latest win for Treacherous was back in October 2024, which was over this C&D. That win came off a mark of 75, and he is now rated 15lb lower at a mark of 60. Not only did he win that day in 0-75 company, he backed it up with a strong third off a mark of 79 (under a 4lb penalty) in a 0-78 Handicap, where he was beaten just a length at the line. Interestingly, those two runs were under Luke Morris, who returns to the saddle again tonight!
As recently as May 2025, Treacherous produced a RPR of 82 off a mark of 80 when finishing fifth at Windsor, beaten just one and a half lengths. This strongly suggests there is plenty of life in the old boy yet. With his mark dropping 8lb from his last three runs, you can’t say the handicapper isn’t helping him, and hopefully the return to this track can see him take advantage of that.
Treacherous drops into 0-60 company for the first time since he was a three-year-old
What I find particularly interesting about today’s race is that Treacherous has dropped down to Class 6 (0-60) for the first time since September 2017. That was the only time he ran at that level, and he won comfortably, progressing up through the ranks thereafter, and never looking back.
I’m not delusional, I appreciate he’s not the horse he once was. At his peak, he was rated 91 and in August 2021, he was only denied by a short head in a very valuable Series Final at Windsor, where the winner scooped £36,078. Of course, this race is a million miles away from that level, so I think he is still more than capable of capitalising on this drop in grade.
Can Treacherous strike on his 100th start under Rules?
I believe Treacherous has an awful lot in his favour tonight. He is an eight-time winner here, so we know he loves it at Kempton. He is now rated 15lb below his last winning mark, and his jockey from that day, Luke Morris, now returns to the saddle. In addition, he’ll be competing in 0-60 company, which is a big drop in class. Last but not least, there looks to be a strong pace in this race, which will suit his hold up style perfectly. On the negative side, Treacherous is almost 12 years old now and he is understandably regressing compared to his peak years. He is also drawn out wide in Stall 10 which isn’t ideal, but less of an inconvenience for a hold up horse.
All in all, I think he’s worth an each way play at 13/2 with four places on offer. If he cannot finish in the first four in this company, I’ll be very disappointed and I would hope connections consider retirement. Ironically, if he was to win, I’d hope for the same outcome. Why not let him go out on a high on his 100th run, as that would be a lovely touch. Either way, I know the end of his career is imminent, but I hope and believe he can get his head in front before that decision comes.
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