Key Points
- Today’s betting tip should have won this race last year
- His form figures read 122 in Class 4 Handicaps
- His yard are in top form and their recent winners were ridden by today’s jockey
We have two jumps meetings at Wetherby and Hereford, plus three AW meetings at Dundalk, Southwell and Kempton, to work with today. However, the horse that stood out to me runs at Wetherby in the 3m Handicap Chase. He was desperately unlucky not to win the race last year and I think he can make amends today off a lower mark and with his trainer in strong form.
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Betting advice
- 15:21 Wetherby -
Latenightrumble
@ 6/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
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Latenightrumble has the right conditions to win!
There are a multitude of different reasons why I like Latenightrumble for this 3m Handicap Chase and in this article, I’ll break them down for you.
Latenightrumble should have won this race last year
It's worth taking a look at the replay of last year’s race. Two runners pulled clear of the field, Sound And Fury and Latenightrumble, who ended up being the only two finishers in a gruelling race. It was Sound And Fury that came out on top, but that doesn’t tell the full story.
Sound And Fury led at four out, but Latenightrumble was right behind him. At the second last, Latenightrumble was alongside. Coming down to the final fence, Sound And Fury was ridden hard by Kielan Woods, whereas Jack Andrew was just holding Latenightrumble together, with the former looking like a sitting duck. It looked like Latenightrumble had the race in his grasp, but unfortunately he stumbled badly on landing, and was unable to recover before the line. Notably, Sound And Fury has won again since, off a 2lb higher mark, franking the form.
That performance for Latenightrumble came off a mark of 116, with Jack Andrews claiming a further 3lb. With another four runs to his name, Latenightrumble returns here 4lb lower, off a mark of 112. It's worth noting that Jack Andrews is no longer claiming, so Latenightrumble is only 1lb better off than last year if you take the weights literally. That said, Jack is a more experienced rider now.
If you look back through Latenightrumble’s form, he has run twice at Wetherby. His first run at the track came in December 2024 when he ran in a 3m Handicap Chase, which he won by a neck off a mark of 110. His only other run was his unfortunate defeat. It's noteworthy that he returns to this track that he seems to love.
In addition to that, we have his form at this level. If you isolate his form to just Class 4 Handicaps his record reads 122, and that includes his second place in this race last year, so it arguably should be 121. His last four starts have been in Class 2, Class 3, Class 2 and Class 3 races, and this is the first time that he’s dropped back down to Class 4 since he ran in this race last year. With such a strong record both at this track and at this level, if Latenightrumble is in the same form as last year, he should take some beating.
Away from the horse himself, Latenightrumble’s yard are in strong form. During February, Tom Ellis has sent six runners to the races with two of them winning and a further two finishing in the first three. The two who failed to finish in the first three were sent off 250/1 and 100/1, so it’s safe to say that they were not expected to. It looks like Tom Ellis has his string of horses in great form.
His two winners this month were Daytime Dreaming and Desertmore News, who both won by double digit margins. Both horses were ridden by today’s jockey, Jack Andrews, and hopefully both trainer and jockey can land a third winner for February with Latenightrumble.
It is also worth noting that Latenightrumble appears to love more testing conditions. He has had six runs on Soft ground with one win and three seconds recorded, compared to just one third from his five starts on Good, or Good to Soft going. The rainfall and resulting ground conditions should be right up his street today.
Can Latenightrumble come out on top?
There is an abundance of positives for Latenightrumble today. He really should be coming here to defend his crown, but sadly a stumble on landing stopped him from winning last year. There is no doubt that he was the best horse on the day, and while he doesn’t get the credit for last year’s race, it’s a moral victory if nothing else. When you combine that with the form that the trainer and jockey are in and that he will have conditions to suit, there is an awful lot to like.
In terms of the negatives, there are only seven runners but thankfully, we are still able to get three places each way which keeps this bet viable. There is also the form for his last four races which read P588. However, two of those runs were on Good to Soft ground, one was over a marathon trip, and all of them have been in either Class 2 or Class 3 company, which was a tough task. Finally there is also the fact that Jack Andrew is no longer a Claimer, but he’s a better jockey now, and Latenightrumble is still 1lb lower.
I think 6/1 is a fantastic price, and with three places on offer despite just seven runners, there is fantastic value in an each way bet here. I do appreciate there are some negatives against Latenightrumble, but I feel that they all have counteracting points, so I’m happy to advise a full 1pt each way today.
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