Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip runs at 3lb below his last winning mark
- This horse returns to what I believe are his optimal conditions
- He has a great conditional jockey and the race should set up perfectly
After a strong start to January, I’m looking to continue the same way as we enter a new week for my
free horse racing betting tips. Today we head to Newbury, where Fergal O’Brien has a runner that I believe is underestimated in the market at a double figure price. This horse should outrun his odds and I see him as being good enough to win.
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Betting advice
- 15:50 Newbury -
Tintintin
@ 11/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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The stars are aligning for Tintintin at Newbury today!
When building a case for a horse, you want as many positives as possible and as few negatives as possible. In my opinion, there is an abundance of positives here for Tintintin and in this article, I’ll be breaking them down for you! Therefore, make sure you read on in order to understand my logic on this one.
Tintintin runs at 3lb below his last winning mark
Tintintin’s last win came at Cheltenham’s April meeting in 2024 where he won a Class 3 (0-135) handicap off a mark of 122, producing a RPR of 128. He then backed that up with a third in the very valuable Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock off his revised mark of 128. Since then he has finished fourth in both the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Imperial Cup at Sandown off marks of 126 and 124, with the latter only seeing him beaten by one length.
With all of that strong form considered, he looks very well handicapped off his current mark of 119. Especially dropping down to a Class 4 (0-120) handicap. If he could return to his best form, he may well have too much class for these lesser rivals today. I also find it interesting that his latest win was in aPony Racing Authority Graduates (Conditional/Amateur) race, with Tom Broughton aboard, and he now tackles a Conditional Jockeys Handicap with Tom in the saddle again.
Tintintin returns to what I believe are his optimal conditions
If you look at all of Tintintin’s best form or simply his top five performances judged on RPRs, they have all come over trips between 1m 7.5f and 2m1f, so to me it’s clear that he loves these minimum trips. However, his last three runs have come over intermediate trips of 2m 4f and the latest even came over fences. Therefore, I would take those three latest runs with a pinch of salt.
He now returns to 2m 0.5f on his favoured better ground and the last time he ran over this type of trip, he was fourth (beaten just one length) in the Imperial Cup. For some context, that Imperial Cup paid over £50,000 to the winner and he was tackling rivals as highly rated as Lump Sum on 147. This race pays just £5,809.10 to the winner and there is nothing rated more than 121 in the field. With conditions to suit, I think he can bounce back to form and if so, he can outclass these rivals today. I also find it interesting that first time cheekpieces join his usual tongue tie.
Tintintin has a great conditional jockey and this race should set up perfectly
As mentioned, this is a Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. With 40 winners under his belt, Tom is one of the more experienced jockeys in the line up, which counts for a lot in these races. It is also a huge advantage when the jockey knows the horse. Sometimes trainers bring in conditionals from outside of their stable for the ride, whereas Tom has already won on Tintintin and hopefully he can ride him to victory again here.
Tintintin is a strong stayer over this trip, and I think that could be key today as there looks to be tons of pace on here. Parramount, General Briar, Sir Hobnob and Almuhit all like to go forward and therefore this could be run at a ferocious gallop. When you add to the mix that it’s conditional jockeys in the saddle, that will fuel the fire more. Often these conditional races are run too quickly and/or they start racing too far from home due to their inexperience. I think this race could set up perfectly for Tintintin, who will more than likely be dropped into midfield and delivered late.
Can Tintintin and Tom Broughton take their record to 2/2?
In terms of the positives, Tintintin is well handicapped, he has his ideal conditions and this race should set up perfectly for him. When throwing into the mix that Tom is a strong conditional jockey and one that has won on Tintintin previously, there really is a lot to like here. The first time cheekpieces partnering the usual tongue tie shows real intent and I think we can see Tintintin bounce back to form here.
In terms of the negatives, his form figures since October 2024 read 546740-7P, which isn’t very appealing. However, he had a much higher mark for the first three runs and the middle of them was in the very valuable Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. Then all of his runs bar one have been over longer trips and the one that wasn’t, was a fantastic run in another very valuable handicap - The Imperial Cup at Sandown.
All aspects considered, I think he looks a great bet here, especially considering the 11/1 on offer with four places being paid. I see no reason not to have a full 1pt Each Way bet here and therefore that’s exactly what I’m advising to you.
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