Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is now 8lb below his last winning mark
- This horse returns to a track where he is already a four-time winner
- He returns to his best trip after being campaigned over various distances
After posting an antepost tip for the Welsh Grand National yesterday, I return to a free betting tip for the action at Lingfield today. It looks like the trainer has been playing around with this horse to get him well handicapped, and he’s achieved that, so now it’s time to strike!
You may just be discovering my content for the first time today and if that’s the case, let me introduce myself. I’m Gav, better known as RacingGav both here at Betting.co.uk and on X/Twitter. I produce several articles per week here and these are predominately focused on providing
free horse racing tips. However, I also provide much more such as big race trends and educational guides.
If you like antepost betting, be sure to check out my selection for the King George VI Chase - Link, which is on Boxing Day! I also have early selections for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National posted already.
Betting advice
- 11:05 Lingfield -
Upepo
@ 10/3 -
1pt Win
bet365 has the best odds available for Upepo
At the time of writing, bet365 has the
best horse racing odds
for Upepo at 10/3. But not only that there is also a fantastic sign up offer up for grabs. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. If you don’t have an account at bet365 yet, now is a good time to get one.
Tony Carroll has this horse ready to win, he just needs to deliver!
With these low grade handicappers, you have to campaign them smartly in order for them to win races. Tony Carroll is a master at this, especially on the All Weather and he looks to have Upepo primed to win again. In this article, I'll be explaining why I think this is the case, so make sure you keep on reading in order to understand my logic.
Upepo is now 8lb below his last winning mark
First and foremost, for these horses to be winning handicaps, they need to be well handicapped i.e. running off a mark that they are better than. In his career to date, Upepo has won five times off marks of 53, 56, 62, 63 and 66. Therefore, he is more than capable of winning off his greatly reduced mark of 58, with his last win coming off an 8lb higher mark!
Whilst I appreciate his form figures in his last six races of 070480 are unappealing, he’s had excuses for them and in this article, I’ll be talking you through them. First of all, six runs back he was having his 12th start of the campaign (so likely in need of a break), he was running over 2m which is beyond his best and he was also racing off a career high mark of 71. Therefore, I have no issue drawing a line through that run. Then five runs back, he was returning from a 138 day break, so he had another excuse there, as he likely needed the run.
Upepo returns to a track where he is a four-time winner
Four runs back and two runs back, Upepo was racing at Kempton and I’m not sure that is his track at all. He is 0/4 at Kempton and whether it’s the fact it’s right handed or something else, he just doesn’t seem to enjoy himself there. However, today he returns to Lingfield where he is a four time winner.
Not only is Upepo a four time winner here, three of those wins have come over this C&D (1m 4f Lingfield). The latest of those C&D wins came off a 5lb higher mark of 63 and he has also won over 1f further (1m 5f) here off a 4lb higher mark of 62. We know he is handicapped to win over this track and trip, if he puts his best foot forward.
Upepo returns to the correct trip after being campaigned over shorter and further
Whilst the last three runs have been disappointing, it is also worth noting the trips that Tony Carroll has been running him over. Three runs back at Southwell, he was running Upepo over 2m 0.5f, which is too far. Then on the last two starts at Kempton and Southwell, he ran him over an inadequate 1m trip. In my opinion, these runs have simply been an attempt to get his handicap mark down and it’s worked!
As well as the unsuitable trips, the fact that his SP on the five starts this season have been 33/1, 100/1, 80/1, 40/1 and 28/1 says it all really. There has been no optimism for his chance in the market as he’s simply not been there to win. In stark contrast, he has his ideal conditions today and he’s already seen market support in from a price of 5/1 into 10/3 and shorter.
Can Upepo bounce back to winning ways?
There are multiple reasons as to why I think Upepo has an exceptional chance of bouncing back to winning ways here. He is 8lb below his last winning mark and he’s won over this C&D off a 5lb higher mark around this time last year. That was no one off either, he is a four time course winner with three of those wins coming over C&D and one coming over 1f further. To me it is clear to see that Tony Carroll has been getting this horse handicapped and now with ideal conditions provided, it looks like he now wants him to win.
On the flip side, he does have to show he still has the ability in his locker. However, he is only five, so he has time on his side and I see no reason why he cannot still perform to the levels he used to. You could also say the fact that we have Myla Coppins in the saddle is a negative, as she has only ever had one ride to date and severely lacks experience. However, this is a “Hands And Heels” Apprentice Handicap and none of these jockeys have ridden more than 10 winners prior to 29th November 2025, so they are largely all in the same boat. It is also worth noting that her sole ride that Myla had came for Tony Carroll and it was a winning one aboard Francesi - Who is far from easy to win with (record of 1/41 prior). Hopefully she can maintain her 100% record today and make it 2/2.
When you consider the array of positives for Upepo, the mitigation against the negatives and the price of 10/3, I think he’s well worth a bet. In my opinion, he should be the clear favourite here, not third in the market and I’d not be shocked to see his price shorten up further between now and the race time. I’d personally have him in the 6/4-9/4 range.
Fancy some free bets? We have you covered!
Below you will find five of our recommended bookmakers and their fantastic
horse racing free bet offers. There is plenty of value to be had from these deals, so make sure you take a look!
Want more RacingGav content? Join my Discord!
While I produce several articles per week for Betting.co.uk, the vast majority of my content is exclusive to members of my Discord server. It’s the only place where you can access all of my betting tips and much more!
The Discord launched back in January 2024 and it’s still going now, so I must be doing something right!
December 2025 is already off to a flyer with eight winners on the board and a very healthy double digit profit!
I’m sure you are wondering how much all of this will cost you? Well, it’s just £14.99 per month - less than 50p per day!
Alternatively, you may prefer a longer-term commitment for savings:
- Quarterly: £34.99 (saves £9.98)
- Bi-Annually: £74.99 (saves £14.95)
- Annually: £149.99 (saves £29.89)
I’m so confident that you’ll enjoy the Discord that I offer
a 7-day free trial. And I’m also confident that my tips will make a profit, so if you join and don’t make a profit across your first 30 days, I’ll refund your subscription fee!
If you want to know more, my DMs are always open on X – @RacingGav
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
