Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was rather eye-catching last time out
- He has a fantastic record in Class 4 Handicaps over this C&D
- Dougie Costello has plenty of experience for this Rider Restricted Race
We have Jumps action at Punchestown (subject to inspection), Ludlow, and Southwell today. However, I think the best bet for today is horse running on the All Weather at Kempton. It does seem a shame when we’re so close to Cheltenham, but I’ll go where the value is, which means the Polytrack action today!
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Betting advice
- 20:00 Kempton -
Al Barez
@ 8/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
bet365 has the best all round value for Al Barez!
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Al Barez loves Kempton and that can help him to win
I think Al Barez has a fantastic chance in this race today and I think he is underestimated at a price of 8/1. With four places on offer, he looks an outstanding each way bet to me. In this article, I’ll explain the reasons why I like him so much, so keep reading.
Al Barez was rather eye catching last time out
Last time out, Al Barez was returning from a 98-day break when he ran over C&D in a similar Handicap. He ducked left at the start, which certainly didn’t help his chances, especially when he was already out widest in stall eight.
Al Barez received his usual hold up ride, and travelled into the race extremely well. Jack Mitchell had the option to pull him out wider, but he gambled on running behind the leaders in the hope that gaps would. Sadly, that didn’t happen, and he was left with nowhere to go. By the time he saw some daylight, the race was already over. Jack Mitchell never once used his whip, so with just a hands and heels ride, he was still only beaten one and a half lengths.
Despite receiving a RPR of 81 for that run, off a mark of 77, the handicapper has surprisingly dropped his official mark down 1lb to 76. That seems pretty crazy to me considering how well he did without receiving a clear run, and without Jack even using his whip. However, I’m not complaining, I’ll be busy backing him instead!
Al Barez has a fantastic record in Class 4 Handicaps over this C&D
Al Barez has a strong record over this C&D, especially in Class 4 Handicaps like today’s race, where he has produced form figures of 3194. There are also a few points to note about three of his runs:
- When he finished third, he took the lead in the final 110yds, but was headed and lost two places near the finish, only getting beaten by half a length.
- When he was ninth, his saddle slipped, so that run can be ignored
- When he was fourth (his latest start) I have already explained about the lack of a clear run and the jockey not using his whip.
The form figures are solid enough. You can draw a line though the worst run, and the other two where he didn’t win were stronger than the finishing positions suggest. It’s also worth noting that those four performances were off marks of 85, 85, 80, and 77, with today’s mark of 76 lower than all four of those..
Dougie Costello has plenty of experience for this Rider Restricted Race
Looking at the jockeys in this Rider Restricted Race, we have a mixture of experience and ability levels. However, one jockey stands out on the experience front, which is Dougie Costello.
To put his experience into context, Dougie Costello has ridden more than three times (326) the average number of winners than the 11 other jockeys (96). The jockey with the next highest number of winners is Oliver Stammers with 141, and that’s not even half of the number Dougie has achieved during his career.
This will be Dougie’s first 2026 ride at Kempton, but he had a very solid record in 2025. He rode 21 times here, producing four winners (19%) and 10 top three finishes (48%). Al Barez might be tricky to ride from stall one with his hold up style, as it’s easy to get trapped on the rail. However, Dougie’s experience will be a huge help with this, as will the cutaway that Kempton has entering the home straight.
Can Al Barez add another C&D win today?
There are plenty of positives for Al Barez in today’s race. He was eye-catching last time out, and a repeat of that run, but with a clear crack at it should see him go very close here. His overall record over C&D in Class 4 Handicaps suggests that he will perform very well, and it’s also worth noting that his previous C&D form was off higher handicap marks, including his win, which was off 9lb higher. The icing on the cake is Dougie Costello, who has plenty of experience in races of this nature, and rode well at Kempton last year.
In terms of the negatives, Al Barez is a hold up horse which leaves an element of his performance to luck in running. Even more so when he is drawn in the lowest stall. Beyond that, it would just be the fact that he is winless since April 2024, but he clearly retains plenty of ability, as we saw last time out.
After weighing up the positives and negatives, I think he is underestimated at a price of 8/1 and represents fantastic each way value, especially with four places on offer. Considering his strong chance and the lovely price, I have decided to play a full 1pt each way stake on this one.
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