
After looking ahead to the Bunbury Cup yesterday, article, I have reverted back to today’s action for this article. Due to the extreme weather, we only have limited meetings to work with, but I have found one I like at Carlisle at 15/2!
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At the time of writing this article, the best horse racing odds for Leadenhall are available at William Hill, along with five places for this race when most are only offering four. The value doesn’t stop there either. If you sign up and bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets. Tons of value right there!
There is some great racing at Carlisle today including Listed action. However, the race that interests me is the Carlisle Bell Handicap, which I think Leadenhall has a great chance of winning. In this article, I’ll explain why!
I tipped Leadenhall to my Discord members three runs back, when he dropped down to a Class 5 Handicap off a mark of 72, and won. Out of interest, I've always felt that he won much more comfortably than the winning margin of a neck suggested. For that he was raised another 2lb to a mark of 74.
He only came sixth on his next start, but that was a competitive 16-runner Handicap at York, where he was beaten by less than three lengths. He bounced back to winning ways just seven days later at Nottingham, when he won an Apprentice Handicap under Jake Dickson. With two wins from his last three, Leadenhall comes to Carlisle in top form!
With his win at York being just four days ago, he races off the same mark of 74 today, rather than his revised mark of 78. On that basis he is officially 4lb well in and that gives him every chance to be extremely competitive.
As with his previous win three starts back, once again Leadenhall looked worth more than the winning margin of half a length. The only small downside today is his wide draw in stall 13, but he’s a big strong horse who finishes powerfully, so he should absolutely relish the course at Carlisle with its stiff finish.
Last time out, Jake Dickson rode Leadenhall in an Apprentice Handicap where he was racing against his peers, so he was unable to claim. But this time he will take on fully-fledged professionals, so he can claim a 7lb allowance this time.
With the 4lb rise received from the handicapper not kicking in yet, and Jake’s 7lb claim, Leadenhall has a mighty 11lb swing. He effectively races off a mark of just 67, and he’ll only carry 8st 11lb rather than the allotted 9st 5lb. All of which could be crucial at the finish.
Leadenhall looks to have a great chance here. He comes here in fantastic form with two wins from his last three runs, which is half the battle. He is already 4lb well in with the quick turnaround after winning four days ago. In addition, Jake Dickson claims 7lb, which is a big help as it gives him a weight advantage over his rivals. Between that, his strong finishing style, and the stiff finish at Carlisle, there’s a lot in his favour.
In terms of negatives, there’s his wide draw, and the fact that this is his third run in just 10 days. Also, while Jake is able to claim 7lb, it also reflects that he is a less experienced apprentice jockey taking on professionals, which is a tough challenge. All facts considered, I think Leadenhall is worth an each way bet at 15/2 with five places on offer. However, due to the concerns highlighted, I have decided to reduce today’s bet to half stakes.
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