Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has already recorded four C&D wins to date
- A talented Claimer has been booked for today’s ride
- This horse has a lovely draw and we know he can win off this mark
My first betting tip of the week, Siam Park, brought us a profit after finishing second at 7/1. For those with Best Odds Guaranteed, you would have been paid out at 17/2! Siam Park ran a huge race, and very nearly made all. However, he bumped into one there in Khafre, who was well-supported ahead of yesterday’s race. Siam Park traded as short as 1.11 in running, and he was beaten by less than a length at the line, and 10 lengths ahead of the horse who placed third. It was a cruel defeat in a game of fine margins, but one with no shame for Siam Park, and a success for those who backed him.
Although there’s Jumps action at Hexham and Hereford, I’ve opted for a runner on the Polytrack at Lingfield for today’s tip! This horse has caught my attention for many reasons, especially as he looks underestimated and overpriced at his current 11/1 odds. It would be no surprise to me if this horse sees plenty of money and goes off considerably shorter before the race.
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Betting advice
- 14:52 Lingfield -
Upepo
@ 11/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
Back Upepo with Betfred today
At the time of writing, Betfred has the
best horse racing odds
for Upepeo at 11/1, along with a very generous deal for new customers. If you sign up and
bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free bets. Certainly worth exploring if you don’t already have an account with Betfred.
Upepo can make it 5/5 over course and distance!
I think Upepo can maintain his unbeaten record over C&D and I’m here to tell you why. So make sure you read the rest of this article to understand my logic. Hopefully by the end, you’ll agree that he’s overpriced at 11/1.
Upepo has already recorded four C&D wins to date
Whenever Upepo runs at Lingfield, he is a danger. His record at this track reads 1113162071, which represents a 50% win rate, and a 70% strike rate for places to back that up. when limiting his runs at this track to this distance of 1m 4f, he has a perfect 100% record of four wins from four runs, which seriously needs to be respected
What is even more impressive is that if you restrict those course runs to this specific trip of 1m 4f, he is actually unbeaten in all four starts. Therefore, he clearly thrives over this C&D but is less effective over the longer trips. I think people are overlooking his chance here because of his latest form figures of 803 but those runs were at Wolverhampton, Kempton and Chelmsford respectively, not here. The last time he raced here, he won over this C&D four runs back.
A talented Claimer has been booked to ride Upepo today
For his first three career wins, Upepo was ridden to victory by the extremely talented Rossa Ryan. Two more wins came under Jack Doughty claiming 3lbs, and the other with Myla Coppins on board who claimed 5lb. Thus proving Upepo will go well for less experienced riders.
Jack Dace has been booked to ride today, and he claims 5lb. I don’t know a huge amount about Jack Dace, except that Upepo is his second ride for Tony Carroll’s yard. That said, Jack really impressed me when riding Wyld Bill and Cuban Fiesta to victory, and the latter certainly isn’t an easy horse to ride. In other words, Jack Dace looks great value for his 5lb claim to me.
Upepo has a lovely draw and we know he can win off this mark
Upepo has landed a lovely low draw in stall three, and this race looks weak-paced on paper, with no front runners in the field, so Jack Dace should be able to pop Upepo out and secure a strong position early on.
Upepo’s six career wins have come off handicap marks of
53,
56, 62,
63, 66, and
58
(C&D wins in bold) and he races off a mark of 62 today. As you can see his penultimate win over C&D came off a mark of 63, and with Jack Doughty’s 3lb claim that day, he was effectively racing off a mark of 60. For today’s race Jack Dace claims 5lb, meaning Upepo is effectively racing off a mark of 58, and we know he’s capable of striking off that mark.
Can Upepo further enhance his C&D record?
I believe that Upepo is completely underestimated here. As we see all too often in horse racing, I think recency bias is swaying the market here. His last three runs have seen him well beaten, but none of those were here at Lingfield, which seems to be a track where he shines. Do I have any concerns? Yes, but only a couple of minor ones. Upepo needs to bounce back from his underwhelming form of late, and I’d prefer that he had a strong pace to aim at over this distance.
I’m struggling to see a pace angle here, although there’s always the chance that one of the other horses in this field might change tactics and go forward today. If not, Jack Dace may well go forward himself knowing that Upepo can easily stay over this distance. What we don’t want is a dawdle that’s followed by a dash for the line. At the end of the day, I think Upepo is underestimated, and at 11/1, there’s huge value in his price, so I’m playing a full 1pt each way.
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