Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is a C&D winner
- Running off the same mark as his C&D win he must have a great chance
- He had excuses on his last three starts and this race should get him back on track
We only have All Weather racing to work with today but I have found a horse that I’m happy to advise. I look to make it 3/3 profitable selections for 2026 as New Order and Sonigino both hitting the frame made them profitable bets for us with the place money returned. Arguably, Sonigino should have won but was let down by the ride he was given and New Order hit odds on prices in-running before running out of steam.
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Betting advice
- 19:00 Kempton -
Port Road
@ 9/1 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Port Road can sail back into the winners enclosure!
In the 1m Handicap at Kempton, I think Port Road is underestimated at a price of 9/1 and he looks a great each way bet to me. In this article, I’ll be breaking down my logic behind backing him today, so make sure you read on in order to understand my reasoning.
Port Road is a C&D winner
Four starts back, Port Road was a winner over this C&D at a tasty price of 18/1 and I actually tipped him to my Discord members that day. He broke well from a nice draw in Stall 6, he sat in touch with the leaders and he made headway to lead inside the final furlong.
I felt he was underestimated that day and I think the same has occurred again today with a price of 9/1 on offer. There was no fluke about his performance that day and I would not be surprised at all if we saw a repeat of that win again here.
Running off the same mark as his C&D win Port Road must have a great chance
That aforementioned win was off a mark of 73 and after being raised a couple of pounds to 75, he’s now fallen back down to that last winning mark of 73 again, which makes him dangerous.
He also seems to have a real liking for Kempton as well. As well as his win here, he has also finished second here twice and third three times. Therefore from his 13 starts at the track, he has finished in the first three home on six occasions, which is 46% of the time. If you narrow it down to his runs over this 1m trip here (many were over 7f), it becomes seven runs over this C&D and four of them being in the first three, increasing the percentage to 57%.
Port Road had excuses on his last three starts and this race should get him back on track
Since his win over this C&D four runs ago, I feel he has had excuses in his three runs. Immediately after his win, they decided to give him wind surgery. That subsequently meant that he didn’t return to the track for 77 days and it can often be the case that they improve for that first run back. Therefore, considering that and the fact it was over the shorter 7f trip, I feel it is excusable. The fact he was sent off 25/1 after winning the time prior speaks volumes about their expectations.
His next run was then a very respectable third at Lingfield where he ran to a RPR of 77 off his mark of 75, there is nothing wrong with that. If anything, that run can be marked up as he was slowly away and had to come from the rear of the field. After the race, the jockey - Paddy Bradley reported that he was restless in the stalls and that caused him to be slowly away. Finally, he was drawn very wide in stall nine last time and he subsequently raced wide.
Can Port Road bounce back to winning ways?
As I regularly say in these articles, you need to consider the positives, the negatives and the odds on offer.
In terms of the positives, he clearly loves this C&D and he is a winner over it as well as many more places. The win over this C&D came off this exact mark, so we know he is capable of delivering a win here. When you add into the mix that he has a lovely draw in stall two, it only increases his chance further.
On the negative side, we have to forgive his recent form, particularly his latest run and the one three runs back, in both of which he finished ninth. However, I feel he has excuses for those. The other negatives would be that he has been temperamental in the stalls, which he will need to cut out and Paddy Bradley is riding at Lingfield, so we have Tyler Heard in the saddle instead.
Odds wise, I think 9/1 is a lovely price and underestimates his chances. Like I said, I feel his poor runs since winning have excuses and I don’t find those hard to forgive. Returning to this C&D will hopefully see him return to form and if so, he has a great each way chance. I’d have preferred Paddy Bradley but Tyler Heard is a solid enough replacement and hopefully he can reward Simon Dow for the opportunity here. Given the negatives raised and his overall record of 1/18, I have trimmed the stake down to 0.75pts Each Way.
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