Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is 100% fit after three Hurdle runs
- He is 1lb below his last winning mark and went close in October
- Jack Callan takes off a valuable 5lb which could make a difference!
It’s time for the first of this week’s
free horse racing tips
here at Betting.co.uk. Thanks to Geezer Rockstar winning at 14/1 earlier in the month, we are in profit for April to date! Today we look to add another winner and I have the perfect horse over at Nottingham. His current price of 8/1 underestimates his chances and it won’t surprise me to see him go off a much shorter price.
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Betting advice
- 16:07 Nottingham -
Louie The Legend
@ 8/1 (4 places) - 1pt each way
Back Louie The Legend with bet365
As I write this article, Louie The Legend is priced at 7/1 or 15/2 across most of the market. But if you want the
best horse racing odds, then bet365 is the place to go, as they are offering 8/1 with four places. No account? No problem. If you sign up and bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets. Certainly worth a look if you don’t already have an account.
Louie can become a legend for us if he wins here!
I’m confident that Louie can live up to his name here, and I’m expecting a big run from him. In the remainder of this article, I’ll tell you exactly why.
Louie The Legend is fit from running over hurdles
We have a mixed bag of contenders in this race. Some of them are having their first run of the year, which could make them vulnerable. Even if they get them fully fit at home, there’s no substitute for real race fitness.
Others here have already raced on All Weather, but that raises a question about how their form will transfer over to Turf. It’s a completely different game, and the form doesn’t always marry up. There’s also a few in the field who have managed to get a race on Turf, which could be a big advantage here.
Interestingly, Louie The Legend has been racing on Turf, but his three runs during February and March this year have all been over Hurdles. At least we know for sure that he will be fit as a fiddle, so he’ll have no excuses on that front.
Louie The Legend is 1lb below his last winning mark
Louie The Legend has already had two runs over C&D, resulting in a win and a neck second. His win was back in July last year, off a mark of 64, and he is now 1lb below that last winning mark, leaving him handicapped to strike!
His second C&D run saw him beaten by just a neck, off exactly the same mark of 63 as he has today. In a tight three way finish, it could have gone either way, and although he just came up short, it proved that his earlier win was no fluke and that he can be very competitive off this mark.
The only slight concern I would have is the ground. His win was officially on Good going but there was plenty of rain that day, and the time was over eight seconds slow, suggesting there was some give in the ground. His subsequent run was on Heavy going. Similarly his Chepstow win came on Good to Soft and he also ran well at Newmarket in a higher grade on Soft ground. Today's going is Good, Good to Soft in places, and the course has been watered, so I’m hoping he’ll handle it just fine.
Jack Callan takes off a valuable 5lb which could make a difference!
Apprentices claim weight to reflect their level of experience, a topic I covered in my educational guide about
apprentices and conditionals
a few weeks back. Although apprentices don’t have the same level of experience as fully fledged professionals, some are very talented, and provide exceptional value for their claim.
I feel Jack Callan falls into that category, and he’s an apprentice to keep on side. He claims 5lb here, which brings the 9st 7lb allocated to Louie The Legend down to 9st 2lb, which is much more manageable. This will be Jack’s first ride for Dylan Cunha, and I’m sure he’ll be keen to make a good impression. A winning first ride could secure him plenty more support from the up-and-coming South African trainer, which could be invaluable for his future career.
Can Louie secure legend status for us?
In terms of the positives, Louie The Legend is proven over C&D with his two runs here seeing him win and being a neck away from doubling his tally. Those two runs came off marks of 64 and 63, so we know off a mark of 63, he is certainly capable of being extremely competitive. We also have the benefit of knowing he’s race fit from three recent runs over Hurdles. I also like that Jack Callan has been booked to ride, as his 5lb claim could make all of the difference. The fact that it’s his first ride for Dylan Cunha will have him working hard in the saddle too.
In terms of the negatives, the ground would be the main one for me. I think he would be at his best on ground with juice in it, so the Good, Good to Soft in places description is a slight concern. However, they have watered the course, and hopefully it won't dry out any further. It was officially Good going when he won here, but I think it was actually a bit softer than that. That said, he ran a good fourth at Bath on Good to Firm, and that track can be like a road, so that gives us hope. The other negative is the apprentice in the saddle, with the 5lb allowance comes inexperience and the pressure will be on as it’s his first ride for the yard. So you could argue his booking as a positive or a negative and we’ll know much more at 16:10 today!
Overall, I think Louie The Legend has a massive chance in this race. Although I'd prefer the ground to be softer, it’s not enough to make me avoid backing him. At 8/1, I think he’s overpriced and if conditions were perfect I'd be having a hefty bet, but due to the small concerns mentioned, I’m sticking to 1pt each way here. Nonetheless, I'll be shocked and disappointed if he isn't among the first four, and I think he can win it.
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