Key Points
- October was a tough month with plenty of hard luck stories
- We achieved value prices on all bar two of my selections last month!
- A last minute reprise meant October ended better than expected
In this article, I’m looking back at the results of my free betting tips for the month of October. It was a very tough and frustrating month overall, but thankfully, it ended on a good note. The end of October also sees me complete my eighth month here as the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk, so I’ll also reveal my long term results, which ultimately, this game is all about!
If you are just coming across my content here for the first time, I’m RacingGav and I post four or five articles each week. My articles mostly focus on daily and antepost betting tips, but you’ll also find other types of content such as big race trends, educational guides, and a monthly results update like this one.
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The long term results continue to be very favourable!
When deciding on a tipster to use, above all else you need to know if they’re making a long term profit . All tipsters have slow spells and purple patches but consistently making a profit over a long period of time is what separates the wheat from the chaff. Since starting with Betting.co.uk over eight months ago, my results are looking very healthy! In the remaining parts of this article, I’ll break down the numbers for you.
October was a tough month with plenty of hard luck stories!
Let’s start with October in isolation! I’m not going to sweeten this up, it was a tough and testing month. We started the month off with a place effort in the shape of Simiyann at 7/1, but then it was famine for the next few weeks.
It’s one thing if the horses are just running badly, but frustratingly, we just didn’t seem to be getting the rub of the green. Zanndabad wasn’t declared for the Cesarewitch after our antepost play on him. Lord Accord was hammered in at Chepstow from 6/1 to 9/4, but being taken on for the lead saw him underperform. Rather ironically, he then won next time out..
Sadly this trend continued with Coeur d’Or and Aramis Grey both being denied clear runs. Greyval managed to finish fifth, but the places were reduced due to non-runners. However, one of the bitterest pills to swallow was Norman Fletcher, who was well supported from 9/1 into 9/2 joint favourite, but he suffered an irregular heartbeat and was subsequently pulled up.
We achieved value prices on all bar two of my selections!
As you saw in the previous section, there were plenty of reasons for the poor results we suffered during October. This is backed up by data, as throughout the whole of October, only two of my selections went off at a bigger price than when I tipped them.
Coeur d’Or was advised at 17/2 and went off 10/1. Regal Envoy was advised at 11/1 and went off 14/1. Simiyann went off at the same price as he was tipped, 7/1. Every other selection I made went off at a shorter price than they were tipped at, with some significantly shorter. For example, Lord Accord was 6/1 into 9/4, Kotari was 8/1 into 9/2, and Norman Fletcher was 9/1 into 9/2.
Ultimately if you are repeatedly beating the SP with value prices, the results will come, it’s more a matter of time rather than the picks themselves. Profit comes and goes, meaning you’ll see both purple patches and quiet spells. You can wait and wait for a winner, only to be disappointed, and then suddenly multiple winners will come along at once!
A last minute reprise meant October ended better than expected!
October was a long month, and it became mentally testing both for me and my readers. However, those who stuck with me until the end will have benefitted from a lovely winner in the shape of John Barbour!
I put John Barbour up at a price of 13/2, as a solid 1pt each way bet. He was well supported right up to the off, returning a SP of 9/2. Once again, we got the value, but this time we also got a result, as he won well. That 1pt each way bet returned a fantastic 9.8pts, and rather saved the month from being a bit of a wipeout. Ironically, the very next tip (which fell into November) was Pep Talking, who also obliged at 13/2. Like I said, you wait and wait, and then they all come along together!
If you're a numbers person, here are the full breakdowns!
Here is my results breakdown for October only:
|
Excluding Best Odds Guaranteed |
Including Best Odds Guaranteed |
| Staked |
15.5pts |
15.5pts |
| Returned |
11pts |
11pts |
| Profit/Loss |
-4.5pts |
-4.5pts |
| ROI |
-29.03% |
-29.03% |
And here is the full breakdown covering March to October:
|
Excluding Best Odds Guaranteed |
Including Best Odds Guaranteed |
| Staked |
154pts |
154pts |
| Returned |
197.482pts |
205.392pts |
| Profit/Loss |
+43.482pts |
+51.392pts |
| ROI |
+28.24% |
+33.37% |
Naturally, the aim is to be in profit every month, although that really is just a bit of a fantasy. In the real world, you will lose some battles, but the big question is whether you’re winning the overall war. The second table above doesn’t lie, we are +43.482pts in profit without BOG. When it’s included. That profit increases to +51.392pts. These totals equate to ROIs of +28.24% and +33.37% respectively, which is extremely healthy!
Like I said, we were repeatedly beating the SP throughout October, we just didn’t have the rub of the green. However, we ended the month on a lovely note with John Barbour winning at 13/2. Ironically, my first November selection was another 13/2 winner. If October was a 32 day month, we would have been in profit. If it was a 30 day month, the loss would have looked horrendous. This is why it is so important to zoom out and look at the bigger picture from time to time.
We’re off to a flyer in November with Pep Talking winning at 13/2 and long may that continue!
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