5 horses to follow on Boxing Day
Mydaddypaddy is the clear selection for me in this contest and, on what we have seen so far, he looks a horse of genuine top-class potential. Visually, his two runs over hurdles have been nothing short of exceptional. On both occasions he has travelled strongly throughout, jumped fluently and ultimately won with plenty in hand, looking a long way clear of the opposition he faced.
A brief examination of the form only reinforces that impression. On his most recent outing, he dismissed a pair of maiden hurdle winners who had each run to a fair standard on their respective hurdle debuts. The manner in which Mydaddypaddy brushed them aside was striking, treating steady away rivals as though they were simply not in the same race. That ability to dominate opponents without ever appearing fully extended is often the hallmark of a very smart horse.What stands out most, however, is his jumping. As he put the race to bed at Haydock, he was notably slick over the final few hurdles, attacking them at speed while remaining low, quick and efficient. That combination of accuracy and pace through the air marks him down as a natural hurdler and strongly suggests he has the attributes required for the very highest level. He already looks every inch a Supreme Novices’ type.
This does, of course, represent a step up into Grade 1 company for the first time, and the same can be said for the rest of the field. He will need to prove that his ability translates to this level, but there is every reason to believe it will. Still only a four-year-old, he is entitled to improve further, both physically and mentally.The Skelton team appear to have another top-class performer on their hands, and it would be no surprise to see him confirm that here. Idaho Sun and Starmount are both likeable prospects who should win races in due course, but I would be very surprised if either were able to lower the colours of Mydaddypaddy on this occasion.
Horse to follow: Mydaddypaddy
Odds: 1/2 with BetMGM
1:20 - Kempton 3m Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1)
Willie Mullins sends Kitzbuhel across for this contest, with Jimmy Du Seuil notably not declared, and Paul Townend making the trip to take the ride ahead of his later commitment on Gaelic Warrior in the King George. That alone adds an extra layer of intrigue. Having gone through the race in detail, it is clear that the field possesses a solid overall level of hurdle form, but none have yet managed to truly break through at Grade 1 level, which leaves the door open for improvement from several angles.
The key piece of form to focus on comes from Sandown last April, where three of today’s runners clashed. On that occasion, Blueking D’Oroux came out on top over just shy of three miles, beating both Salver and Kitzbuhel while conceding weight to them. It was a high-quality performance, and the fact he now meets those rivals on level terms is clearly significant. The question, however, is whether he can reproduce that level of form over fences.
So far, his transition to chasing has been promising rather than polished. On his chase debut, his jumping lacked fluency at times, yet he still went very close, going down by just half a length to the more experienced and race-fit Riskingtheground. That effort suggested plenty of ability despite his novice errors. He followed up by landing a Grade 2 at Wincanton over a sharp 2m4f on good ground. Again, his jumping was not foot-perfect, but he stayed on strongly in the closing stages and ultimately won going away, which spoke well for his engine and attitude.
There is no doubt he needs to find further improvement to win a race of this nature, but the step up to three miles looks tailor-made for him and should bring out the best in his stamina. Paul Nicholls has an excellent record of progressing young chasers from run to run, and with that in mind, the price on offer makes Blueking D’Oroux an appealing chance to take.
Horse to follow: Blueking D’Oroux
Odds: 17/2 with BetMGM
1:55 - Kempton 2m Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1
Finally, he is back. Sir Gino makes his long-awaited return to the racecourse following a frustrating absence caused by issues last season. What initially began as a leg injury unfortunately developed into an infection, requiring a spell in an equine hospital to aid his recovery. Thankfully, all reports suggest he is now fully recovered and ready to resume his career over hurdles.
The excitement surrounding his return is fully justified when you consider what he showed prior to that setback. The last time we saw Sir Gino, he was nothing short of sensational. He captured the Fighting Fifth with a minimum of fuss, travelling powerfully throughout and winning virtually on the bridle. That performance alone marked him down as a horse of the highest class. Even more impressive was what followed, when he made his chasing debut and dismissed Ballyburn with ease, producing one of the most striking first runs over fences seen in recent seasons. That display suggested he possessed not just raw ability, but the composure and athleticism required to excel at the very top level.
Of course, the obvious question surrounds the long layoff. He will need to have retained the ability he showed before his absence, and there is always a degree of uncertainty when a horse returns after such a prolonged break. However, if he is anywhere near the level of form he showed last season, he is simply a class above this field.
Golden Ace deserves plenty of respect as a multiple Grade 1 winner and is the clear danger on paper. If Sir Gino were to underperform for any reason, she could easily add another major prize to her record. A forecast may appeal for those seeking extra value, but overall, I firmly side with Sir Gino and hope he proves just as good as ever.
Horse to follow: Sir Gino
Odds: 1/2 with BetMGM
12:35 - Leopardstown 2m Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle
Doctor Du Mesnil looks a hugely exciting novice hurdler for the season ahead and makes his reappearance here with plenty of expectation. He showed clear ability when winning his sole bumper at Cork back in April, producing a performance that marked him down as a horse of real promise. Ridden with confidence by Jodie Townend, he travelled strongly throughout before quickening decisively to put the race to bed, extending clear of his rivals with ease. The manner in which he showed a sharp turn of foot over 2m3f was particularly eye-catching and suggested he has both pace and stamina in abundance.
He begins his hurdling career over two miles, which looks a sensible starting point. Being by Doctor Dino, there is every reason to expect him to be well suited to this trip. Doctor Dino has proved an outstanding influence on top-class two-mile hurdlers in recent years, with the likes of State Man and Sharjah among his notable progeny, and Doctor Du Mesnil appears to share many of those traits.
With Danny Mullins taking over in the saddle, while Paul Townend is committed elsewhere at Kempton, it would be no surprise to see positive tactics employed. He looks the type to be ridden prominently, potentially making the running and using his natural pace to good effect. Should he deliver a big performance on this occasion, he could quickly establish himself as a serious contender for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival later in the season.
Horse to follow: Doctor Du Mesnil
Odds: 5/6 with BetMGM
2:30 - Kempton Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
What a race this promises to be. There are so many compelling angles at play, and it is exactly this type of contest that reminds us why we love National Hunt racing. With proven Grade 1 performers, unanswered questions and emerging talent all coming together, it has the makings of a truly fascinating spectacle.
The starting point has to be the two Willie Mullins-trained runners, fresh from their clash in the John Durkan. Gaelic Warrior came out on top that day, and on the back of that victory you would expect him to be well found in the market once again, likely to be positioned as the one to beat ahead of Fact To File. However, a key question surrounds how hard a race the John Durkan proved for both horses, and whether there could be any residual effects here. Another significant doubt concerns Fact To File’s stamina. While he has immense talent, it remains to be seen whether he truly stays three miles as well as some of these rivals. There is a realistic scenario in which the Mullins pair take each other on aggressively, setting a strong pace in an effort to assert dominance, which could leave them vulnerable late on.
That possibility brings others into the equation. Banbridge capitalised on a similar scenario last year, when Il Est Français set a relentless gallop and paid the price, allowing Banbridge to pick up the pieces. This time around, however, it is hard to see Il Est Français being able to replicate that performance, and Banbridge himself is now another year older. For those reasons, he looks opposable in this renewal.
The horse I am most keen to side with is Jango Baie. He looks every inch a proper staying chaser and appears to have the ideal race set up to play to his strengths. He won the 1965 Chase last time out, finishing his race strongly and shaping as though there was plenty more to come. This will be his second run following a wind operation, which often brings about improvement, and he now steps up to three miles for the first time, a move that should suit him perfectly given the likely strong pace.
At just six years old, Jango Baie has significant scope for further progress and could develop into a genuine Grade 1 staying chaser in the years ahead. With conditions seemingly ideal and the race likely to unfold in his favour, he looks a very solid option. It would also be fantastic to see the King George stay in the UK and to watch Nicky Henderson land another major prize on home soil.
Horse to follow: Jango Baie
Odds: 5/2 with BetMGM
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