Saturday horses to follow
Ascot 12:25 Juvenile Hurdle
This juvenile hurdle may feature several interesting newcomers and lightly raced types, but the form horse is clearly Winston Junior, who looks well placed to turn promise into a first success over obstacles. On what he has already achieved in a short hurdling career, he sets a level that the rest of the field must reach. Winston Junior arrived from the Flat with a solid staying background, having shown useful ability in Ireland for Jessica Harrington and proving his stamina over extended trips. That grounding has transferred smoothly to hurdling, where he has progressed with each start. His debut at Fontwell was encouraging, but it was his next outing at Cheltenham that really marked him down as a horse of some substance. Competing in a Triumph Trial, he finished runner-up in a race that has already started to look strong, shaping better than the bare result suggests.
That Cheltenham effort was full of positives. Winston Junior travelled powerfully throughout, arguably too enthusiastically at times, and still finished his race strongly despite meeting traffic issues late on. Forced to switch for a run approaching the last, he closed the gap with purpose and pulled clear of the remainder, finishing ahead of a previous Grade 2 winner. The official rating of 124 reflects that performance and gives him a clear edge over today’s rivals.
There is scope for further improvement too. A tendency to race a little freely remains his main flaw, but that can often diminish with experience, and even so he has already shown enough to suggest he can cope with it at this level. The return to a more straightforward contest, away from the white-hot intensity of Cheltenham, should also work in his favour.
Several in opposition are entitled to respect. Down To Business shaped well on his hurdle debut and looks capable of better with a tongue-tie applied, while Macshadow Des Crai is likely to step forward for a powerful stable. Novelista and Talakan bring intriguing Flat credentials, but both are making their first appearances over hurdles and face a steep learning curve against a proven performer. Crucially, Winston Junior has already demonstrated that he can operate at a high level in juvenile company. His hurdle form is established, his Flat background suggests stamina and resilience, and a repeat of his Cheltenham run would almost certainly be enough to secure victory here. With natural progression and a cleaner passage through the race, Winston Junior has all the ingredients to go one better and justify favouritism.
Horse to follow: Winston Junior
Odds: 11/10 with BetMGM
Ascot 2:53 Holloway's Handicap Hurdle
This competitive Ascot handicap hurdle brings together a fascinating mix of exposed horses, progressive types and horses searching for a spark, but the one that stands out as primed to strike is Samuel Spade, who looks set to bounce back to his very best. Ben Pauling’s gelding has always been a horse of extremes. He either runs very close to winning or finishes well out of contention, and this season has firmly fallen into the latter category. Three low-key runs have seen him beaten without ever threatening, most recently when never landing a blow over 2m5f here. On the surface, that effort looks disappointing, but crucially it has allowed the handicapper to relent, and Samuel Spade now finds himself back on a mark of 125, exactly the same rating he defied in convincing fashion over course and distance last February.
That victory, over 2m7f on good ground, was arguably the best performance of his career. He travelled strongly, jumped fluently and asserted late, marking him out as a high-class handicapper when conditions suit. Since then, things haven’t quite fallen his way, but the return to Ascot looks key. This is clearly a track he thrives at, and the drop back in trip to around 2½ miles should be firmly in his favour. While he stays further, his best performances tend to come when he can travel comfortably rather than be drawn into a stamina test.Another significant factor is the application of first-time cheekpieces, a clear signal of intent from Pauling. The trainer boasts an excellent 25% strike-rate at Ascot this season, and while his overall record with first-time headgear is modest, it often coincides with a horse being fully primed. Everything about this move suggests today has been the plan.
The opposition is solid but beatable. Came From Nowhere remains progressive but is up 7lb and tackling a much deeper race. Faivoir retains ability but is vulnerable to something younger and better handicapped. Surrey Lord is thriving but has been hit hard by the assessor and is now entering unknown territory. Others, like Metier and Thanksforthehelp, need significant revival.
Samuel Spade may not have shown his hand this season, but conditions are right, the mark is workable, and the signals are all positive. If he turns up in the mood, he has the class, course form and tactical speed to outpoint this field and return to winning ways.
Horse to follow: Samuel Spade
Odds: 11/1 with BetMGM
Haydock 2:00 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase
The Sky Bet Peter Marsh Handicap Chase may be reduced to just six runners, but it has lost none of its intrigue, and there is a strong case to be made that Imperial Saint can outpoint his more fashionable rivals in what looks a deceptively open renewal at Haydock. A point-to-point winner who steadily climbed the ranks over hurdles, Imperial Saint truly came into his own once sent chasing last season. His novice campaign over fences during 2024–25 marked him out as a horse on the upgrade, winning three times and showing a blend of sound jumping and relentless galloping that suggested he would be even better once tackling proper staying trips. Despite being on the go from early in the season, he arguably saved one of his best efforts for late on, finishing an excellent second to Cruz Control in a strong handicap chase at Aintree over 3m1f in April.
That stamina test now comes firmly back into play. Imperial Saint has spent the early part of this season competing over slightly shorter distances in high-quality races, and while his form figures don’t leap off the page, his performances have been better than they appear. He shaped with plenty of promise in the Old Roan and then again in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham, where he was caught out by a steadily run race that didn’t suit his strengths. Notably, he was badly hampered approaching the second-last fence that day, losing valuable momentum in a contest where finishing position was dictated by tactical speed rather than stamina.
The handicapper has taken a lenient view, easing him another 2lb to a mark of 141, and the booking of 3lb claimer Callum Pritchard further enhances his appeal. As a second-season chaser, he remains far from the finished article, and this step back up in distance could unlock the improvement needed to bridge the gap with the principals.Konfusion arrives in red-hot form and Myretown is undeniably talented, but both face searching tests under higher weights, while others in the field have questions to answer regarding current form or consistency. By contrast, Imperial Saint has proven form on flat, left-handed tracks, thrives on decent ground, and is finally getting conditions that allow him to play to his strengths.
At double-figure odds, Imperial Saint looks the one most likely to outrun his price and, with stamina coming to the fore late on, he can grind his rivals into submission and land a valuable staying prize.
Horse to follow: Imperial Saint
Odds: 15/2 with BetMGM
Haydock 2:35 Handicap Hurdle
This staying handicap hurdle looks a deep and competitive affair, but there is a strong sense that Dalston Lad could be a class above his rivals now that he steps into handicap company over a more suitable trip. Representing the ever-potent Dan Skelton yard, he arrives with the profile of a horse whose current mark may seriously underestimate his true ability. Dalston Lad has always hinted at stamina. A winner of a three-mile point-to-point and successful twice in bumpers, he has gradually found his feet over hurdles, improving with each of his three starts in that sphere. His latest effort at Sedgefield on Boxing Day was particularly taking. Sent off a short-priced favourite, he justified that support in emphatic fashion, travelling strongly throughout and quickening clear after the last to win by 13 lengths. Importantly, that success came with first-time cheekpieces applied, which are retained here, suggesting there could be further improvement to come.
That Sedgefield win was achieved over an intermediate trip, but everything about Dalston Lad’s pedigree and racing style points towards this step up to three miles being a major positive. He is a half-brother to Myretown, a high-class staying chaser, and has consistently shaped as though longer distances would bring out the best in him. Now making his handicap debut, he has the look of a horse who could leave his opening mark well behind. Several rivals bring solid and likeable profiles, but each has questions to answer. Phantomofthepoints sets a clear standard on his excellent course-and-distance third in November, yet that run may leave him more exposed than the selection. Heather Honey continues to progress but is stepping into a stronger race, while Solar System and Both Barrels have proven form but lack the same scope for improvement. Others, such as Kyntara and Stay Away Fay, need to rediscover their best form to feature prominently.
What really tilts the balance in Dalston Lad’s favour is his unexposed nature combined with the strength of his connections. The Skelton team excel with progressive stayers, and their horses are often primed to strike when switched into handicaps at the right moment. With the yard in good form and conditions unlikely to pose any issue, Dalston Lad looks set to take a sizeable step forward.
If he stays as expected and reproduces the authority of his latest success, Dalston Lad has the potential to dominate this race and announce himself as a serious staying prospect going forward.
Horse to follow: Dalston Lad
Odds: 5/2 with BetMGM
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