4 horses to follow at Cheltenham and Doncaster.
Cheltenham 12.05 Novices Handicap Chase
There is a strong case to be made that
Califet En Vol
represents the class angle in this competitive handicap and may prove to be operating from a mark below his true ability on his first start in handicap company. A dual winner as a novice hurdler, Califet En Vol confirmed himself a high-quality prospect last season when landing a Listed contest at Huntingdon and subsequently running with credit in stronger company. His third-place finish behind Miami Magic and Regent’s Stroll stands out as particularly solid form, while his second to The New Lion over 2m5f at Newbury further underlined both his stamina and his ability to mix it with leading performers. He was held in sufficient regard to start a well-backed 3/1 favourite for a Grade 1 hurdle, a reflection of the level of talent connections believe he possesses.
Sent chasing this term, the son of Califet has shaped better than his results suggest in novice company. He has run twice over this course and distance, producing respectable efforts on both occasions while still learning his trade over fences. Most recently, he finished third, beaten just over five lengths, in a novice chase in which his finishing position might have been improved but for a late jumping error. That effort nonetheless confirmed his aptitude for Cheltenham and suggested there is more to come once his fencing becomes more fluent. This move into handicap company looks a logical and potentially rewarding next step. A mark of 137 appears fair rather than prohibitive when assessed against his hurdle form, and he has the scope to progress beyond it with further experience. His proven effectiveness between 2m4f and 3m, combined with positive course-and-distance form, strengthens his credentials in a race where several rivals appear more exposed.
Of the opposition, Barlovento commands respect after his novice handicap success at Kempton on Boxing Day and remains open to improvement over fences, while Jordans Cross has the ability to make his presence felt if reproducing his best form following an unlucky fall here earlier in the season. Push The Button and Kdeux Saint Fray bring solid handicap form into the equation, but may lack the same untapped potential.
Overall, Califet En Vol stands out as a horse with the profile of one capable of developing into a graded performer. If his jumping continues to sharpen, this handicap could prove a stepping stone towards higher-level targets later in the season, with Cheltenham or Aintree logical future destinations. On balance, he looks well placed to go very close in what could be a significant run in his progression over fences.
Horse to follow: Califet En Vol
Odds: 4/1 with BetMGM
Cheltenham 12.40 Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle
The Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at 12.40 looks a key stepping stone on the road to the Triumph Hurdle, and
Maestro Conti
arrives with the profile of a horse capable of taking this rise in class in his stride. Unbeaten in two starts and visually impressive on both occasions, he appears a smart recruit for a yard well known for handling juveniles with precision. A winner in France on his debut for Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm, Maestro Conti was quickly identified as a strong addition to the Dan Skelton team and justified that confidence when making a seamless transition to British racing. Sent to Kempton over Christmas, he made light work of his rivals in a juvenile hurdle, quickening clear in decisive fashion to score by nine and a half lengths. The ease of that success, both visually and on the clock, marked him down as a horse operating well above ordinary juvenile level.
While the form of that Kempton race has yet to be fully tested, the manner in which Maestro Conti disposed of Brave Guest and Zarakajack suggested a significant performance. He travelled strongly throughout, jumped fluently, and showed a sharp turn of foot after the last, traits often associated with top-class juveniles. Importantly, he looked a more complete horse than on his French debut, indicating clear improvement on his first start for the Skeltons. Conditions should hold no fears. He has already shown his effectiveness around 2m1f and has winning form on heavy ground, a valuable asset given the demands of Cheltenham in midwinter. This test should provide further evidence of his suitability for the track, and experience of the Course is an important factor for any juvenile with Festival aspirations. The Skelton yard is in good form, and their juveniles are rarely overfaced. The decision to run Maestro Conti here suggests confidence that he belongs at graded level, and this contest looks designed to confirm his credentials as a leading Triumph Hurdle contender. Historically, the stable has been adept at identifying their top juvenile early, and Maestro Conti appears to fit that mould.
Of the opposition, Minella Yoga rates the main danger after winning both of his starts and shaping with promise, while Finale Hurdle winner Tenter Le Tout brings solid form and experience into the equation. However, both will need to find improvement to match the authority of Maestro Conti’s Kempton performance.
Overall, this looks a race well within the grasp of an upwardly mobile juvenile. If Maestro Conti reproduces the level of form he showed last time, and continues his progression, he should take this step up to Grade 2 company in his stride and further strengthen his position as one of the leading British-trained hopes for the Triumph Hurdle.
Horse to follow: Maestro Conti
Odds: 13/8 with BetMGM
Cheltenham 1.50 Cross Country Handicap Chase
J'Arrive Des L'Est
looks well placed to play a leading role in the 1.50 at Cheltenham and appeals as a horse capable of improving on an already encouraging first start for his new connections. A useful performer in France, including two victories in cross-country chases, he shaped with plenty of promise when runner-up over this course and distance last month and should be wiser for the experience. That reappearance effort came after a 264-day absence and marked his first start outside France. Despite those factors, he travelled well throughout and kept on strongly to finish second of 14 behind Final Orders, beaten just over four lengths. The form of that race has already taken on added significance, with Favori De Champdou, who was still in contention when falling at the last, subsequently landing the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The return to Cheltenham should suit J’Arrive De L’Est well. He appeared to take to the track on his British debut and is likely to benefit from a more positive ride now that he has experience of the course’s unique demands. The reapplication of cheekpieces, which he wore to good effect in France, is another positive and could help sharpen him up in what looks a competitive but winnable contest.
From a handicapping perspective, this race makes plenty of sense. His current mark still leaves room for manoeuvre, and a strong performance here would position him more favourably for future targets. The expectation would be that he is capable of stepping forward from his latest effort, particularly with fitness and familiarity now on his side.
Of the opposition, Favori De Champdou commands obvious respect after his shock victory in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown and has already shown he can be competitive at Cheltenham. However, he may need to prove that effort was not a one-off. Final Orders also reopposes after making all to win last time, but that race may set up differently on this occasion, especially if the tempo is stronger from the outset.
Overall, J’Arrive De L’Est stands out as a horse with the right blend of course form, scope for improvement, and tactical versatility. If building on his solid British debut, he looks capable of reversing form with Final Orders and asserting himself in a race that could prove an important step in his season.
Horse to follow: J’Arrive De L’Est
Odds: 15/8 with BetMGM
Doncaster 12.55 River Don Novices Hurdle
The Grade 2 novices’ hurdle over three miles at Doncaster places the emphasis firmly on stamina, and
Carlenrig
looks well suited to the demands of this contest as he continues his progression as a staying novice. Lightly raced and still learning his trade, Carlenrig has shown clear improvement since being stepped up in trip, culminating in a narrow but meritorious success in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham six weeks ago. That victory came over a similar three-mile trip on good to soft ground, where he overcame signs of greenness to prevail by a short head, a performance that suggested there is more to come now that stamina is being drawn out. Prior to that, he had shaped with promise when second to Rocking Man at Chepstow, a track that can place different demands on a young stayer. While that rival showed a sharper turn of foot on the day, the form has to be viewed in the context of conditions and race setup, and Carlenrig has since demonstrated that a more searching test over a true three miles plays to his strengths.
His Cheltenham success was also notable for the way he travelled and kept finding under pressure, traits often associated with horses who will continue to progress over staying trips. He was given a well-judged ride to secure the favoured rail and responded gamely when challenged, indicating both resolution and stamina in abundance. The runner-up has since franked the form, adding further substance to the performance. Carlenrig remains unexposed, having raced only three times under rules, and he is already a winner from his sole point-to-point start, further reinforcing the impression that stamina rather than speed is his primary asset. The additional penalty he carries here is a consideration, but it may not be enough to halt a horse who still appears to be on an upward curve. Conditions at Doncaster should suit, with the flat nature of the track placing the emphasis on sustained galloping rather than tactical speed. Effective from 2m4f to 3m, and proven under similar ground conditions, Carlenrig looks likely to appreciate this test as much as any in the field.
Overall, this looks the right race at the right time for a developing staying novice. If building on his Cheltenham success, Carlenrig should be capable of running another big race and further cementing his status as a promising prospect in the staying novice division.
Horse to follow: Carlenrig
Odds: 6/1 ew with BetMGM
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