Cheltenham Paddy Power Meeting
Always a brilliant meeting on the jumps season calendar and one that throws out some nice priced winners and horses who could potentially go on to fight out the spring festivals too. Here are a few horses to follow for the meeting and ones to keep onside for the season.
Friday
2:55pm - 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Shloer Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)
A highlight of the National Hunt calendar, the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham has been dominated by Jonbon for the past two seasons as part of his preparation for the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He returns once again this year in pursuit of a remarkable hat-trick.
Jonbon is a household name in jump racing, boasting an outstanding record of 23 runs, 18 wins, and 5 seconds, with 11 victories at Grade 1 level, an extraordinary achievement by any standard. Tomorrow’s contest is a Grade 2, and even at the age of nine, Jonbon looks well placed to make another winning start to his season. Interestingly, he has undergone a wind operation since last campaign, and if that brings about any further improvement, he should be very difficult to beat. However, as expected, he will go off at short odds.
Among the opposition, L’Eau Du Sud is an emerging talent in the UK two-mile division with potential to progress beyond novice company, though he still has some way to go to reach Jonbon’s level. A more intriguing alternative could be Libberty Hunter, trained by Evan Williams and partnered by Harry Cobden. His record after long breaks of 240 days or more reads 12F1, and on the occasion of his fall, he was travelling strongly. If any horse is capable of catching Jonbon out at this stage, it could be him. Notably, he was running a big race in last season’s Champion Chase and appeared to have Jonbon under pressure before coming down three out.
From a betting perspective, Libberty Hunter appeals as a potential each-way option at a likely bigger price, but I'm fully expecting Jonbon to deliver as usual and at evens or odds against he cant be ignored at that price. Looking ahead, these runners could well feature in the Champion Chase, a division that doesn’t appear particularly strong this season.
Horse to follow: Jonbon
Odds: evens with BetMGM
3:30 2m5f (Old) Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)
This looks a strong contest featuring several promising types, with the two that particularly catch the eye being Heads Up for John McConnell and Great Fleet for Dan Skelton.
Heads Up, who finished second in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival, made an impressive hurdles debut at Listowel, winning decisively over two miles. He now steps up in trip, which should suit him well given his profile. A proven performer on soft ground, any further rain should pose no concern. He looks a fine prospect and is likely to continue progressing.
Great Fleet is another to note. He looked the likely winner when turning for home behind Conman John here over three miles before just being outstayed late on. The drop back in trip by a couple of furlongs should play to his strengths, and with Harry Skelton booked, he clearly rates as the stable’s main hope. Stablemate Moneygarrow would have been of more interest after his solid effort in the Persian War, but with Harry choosing to ride Great Fleet, that slightly tempers enthusiasm. No Drama This End, representing Paul Nicholls, is an interesting recruit, but with several of the yard’s runners needing their first outing of the season, it may be wise to watch rather than wager this time.
The Irish raider Heads Up deserves his place at the head of the market, but I have a soft spot for Conman John, who outstayed Great Fleet last time and now he goes over a shorter trip, which is in his favour. With two runs under his belt and proven course form, he looks a solid each-way proposition. The only other one I'd maybe give a small shout for is Henry De Bromheads Kings Bucks who could easily improve for a substantial step up in trip from 2 mile to 2m5f here at a bigger each way price.
Whether any of these can put up a performance worthy of Albert Bartlett consideration remains to be seen, but if Great Fleet were to win, it might be worth keeping an eye on Conman John for that race. Looking further ahead, Great Fleet could easily develop into the type for a Coral Cup campaign later in the season.
Horse to follow: Great Fleet and Kings Bucks
Odds: 11/2 ew and 14/1 ew with BetMGM
Saturday
1:45pm - 2m (Old) Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices' Chase (Grade 2)
A small but high-quality six-runner field lines up here, headed by the exciting mare July Flower, who makes the trip from Ireland for the Henry de Bromhead yard with Darragh O’Keeffe booked to ride. She looked a completely different proposition on her chasing debut at Limerick, jumping superbly and winning her mares’ beginners’ chase in impressive fashion.
This represents a step up in class as she now takes on the geldings, but she receives a valuable 7lb mares’ allowance, which could well prove decisive. She should have no trouble handling the likely soft conditions, and on balance, she looks the one to beat.
Of the opposition, Burdett Road makes his chase debut, but this looks more of a watching brief given he faces several rivals with experience over fences. Be Aware, representing Dan Skelton, appears the main danger. He won his chase debut and showed improved settling. The Skelton team are renowned for bringing their horses forward significantly for their second runs, so a bold showing is expected, though giving weight to a talented and improving mare like July Flower might prove a tough ask.
Looking ahead, this could prove an informative race in the context of the Arkle picture come spring. Whether any of these are capable of reaching the level of a horse such as Kopek Des Bordes remains to be seen, but, as ever, time will tell.
Horse to follow: July Flower
Odds: 6/5 with BetMGM
2:20pm - 2m4f (Old) Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (In memory of Edward O'Grady) (Premier Handicap) (Class 1)
The rain is coming, and this year’s Paddy Power Chase is almost certain to turn into a soft-ground test, with conditions already described as good to soft and more rain forecast. With that in mind, here are my thoughts on the race.
My original selection for this contest was Il Ridoto for the Paul Nicholls team. He won this race last year off a 1lb lower mark when partnered by Freddie Gingell, and this time he’s reunited with Harry Cobden, one of the best in the saddle. Although he’ll be carrying a bit more weight, that’s not a major concern given Harry’s quality. Il Ridoto landed the race on good ground last year, and while connections would likely have preferred similar conditions, he has previously won on soft at Cheltenham, so the ground shouldn’t be too big a negative. With a prep run already under his belt and Nicholls sure to have him spot on for the day, he looks a fantastic each-way option, particularly if the rain doesn’t become too heavy.
Another to mention is Jagwar for the Greenall and Guerriero team, a horse I’ve always been a huge fan of. A Cheltenham Festival Plate winner, he’s a talented and improving type. That said, I’m against him this weekend. Carrying top weight after a layoff is a big ask, especially as he’s a sizeable horse who usually takes a run or two to reach peak fitness. I’d expect him to come on for the outing, and he’d be one to note for the December Gold Cup, where he’d be a strong fancy with a run under his belt.
I also like the profile of Panic Attack for Dan Skelton. She’s been targeted specifically for this race, and while she hasn’t had a prep run, she did have a racecourse gallop, suggesting she’s fit enough. Skelton’s older horses tend to be further forward at this stage of the season, and with Harry Skelton opting to ride her over the stable’s other entries, she looks primed for a big run.
For one at a bigger price, I’m drawn to Theatre Native for Henry de Bromhead. Officially the second string with Sean Bowen taking the ride, she could go well at decent odds. She came alive on her first visit to Cheltenham last season, bolting up in the Mares’ Handicap Chase off a mark of 125. While she didn’t make an impact at Punchestown afterwards, she arrives here fitter for a recent outing and looks interesting now back on British soil. Importantly, she handles testing conditions, she would have won a heavy-ground point-to-point comfortably but for a fall when well clear, and she’s also a maiden winner on heavy. If the rain sets in, she could prove one of the best equipped to handle it.
All in all, this year’s Paddy Power Chase looks a competitive renewal, and it’s the type of race where having a couple of each-way plays makes sense. For me, Il Ridoto is the solid, class performer, while Theatre Native could run a big race at a price, especially if conditions deteriorate and Panic Attack for the inform Skeltons has to be the other.
Horses to follow: Il Ridoto at 5/1 ew Panic Attack 11/2 ew Theatre Native 18/1 ew
All Odds with BetMGM
Sunday
2m½f (Old) Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Turning attention to Sunday and the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, the horse I’m siding with is Serious Challenge, trained by Fergal O’Brien and ridden by Jonathan Burke.
Back in April, this horse produced a strong performance under a big weight in the Novices’ Championship Final at Sandown, a race won by the well-handicapped Give It To Me Oj, who is now rated 143. After a break, Serious Challenge returned at Aintree off a break, stepping up to 2m4f off a mark of 128. Given a patient ride that day, he was held up and eased into contention looking a real threat before understandably fading late on to finish fourth.
He’s been kindly eased 1lb by the handicapper and now runs off 127, dropping back to 2 miles, a trip that should suit perfectly, especially with the strong pace this race is likely to produce. He’s versatile with regard to ground conditions, which is another plus, and we know Fergal O’Brien has a fine record in Cheltenham handicaps. The Greatwood Hurdle is one he’s yet to win, so you can be sure he’ll have this horse primed to go very well on Sunday.
Horse to follow: Serious Challenge
Odds: 8/1 ew with BetMGM
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