Key Points
- A Lucky 15 is a fun way to combine four betting tips into one bet
- All of the races I’ve mentioned here will be shown on ITV
- I have three selections at Ascot and my fourth pick runs at Wincanton
Back in September 2025, I published a Lucky 15 article on a Saturday, and it was so popular there has been one every week since. Today we have four horses who will feature in the ITV Racing action at Ascot and Wincanton! My selections include an exciting Novice Hurdler, one in the £50,000 Handicap at Ascot, a runner in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle, and another in today’s highlight race, the Grade 1 Ascot Chase.
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If you’re on the lookout for some antepost picks for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, then you should check out my tips for the
Triumph Hurdle
and the biggest race of all, the
Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Betting advice - A win only Lucky 15
- 13:15 Ascot - Mondoui’boy @ 13/8
- 13:35 Wincanton - Alexei @ 4/5
- 14:25 Ascot - Lightningupourdays @ 5/1
- 15:35 Ascot - Pic d’Orhy @ 15/8
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I searched for Saturday winners and I believe I’ve found some!
More often than not, I search for value further down in the market, but today, these four horses really caught my eye, so we’re going win only. That said, three of my four picks are odds against, so we do have some juice in their prices.
Mondoui’boy @ 13/8 - This David Maxwell dispersal sale purchase could be special for Ben Pauling!
Mondoui’boy was second in his Point-To-Point at Borris House in Ireland, and he was subsequently sold for £140,000 at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival Sales. The winner of that race was Shuffle The Deck, who was purchased by JP McManus, and is now rated 140 over Hurdles. The third was a horse called Quantum Quest, who is now rated 126 and runs in the double green silks of his current owners Simon Munir & Isaac Suede. The horses who placed fourth and sixth that day are now trained by Kim Bailey. Draco Malfoy is rated 125 and Moon Rocket is rated 140. The only other finisher was the horse in fifth, who is now trained by Donald McCain and rated 118. It’s safe to say there was plenty of depth to that race!
It was a similar story for Mondoui’boy’s Bumper debut, when David Maxwell rode (which can always be marked up). The winner, Crackerjacque, is 2/3 over Hurdles and rated 123. The third, Hurricane Pate, is a Listed winner and Grade 2 placed Hurdler rated 136, and the talented Dan Skelton-trained A Pai De Nom was back in fifth. Next, Mondoui’boy headed to the Punchestown Festival for just his second Bumper, where he ran a very solid race to finish in sixth. Once again, this is a race that has worked out very well with 15 subsequent wins from 11 different horses, including names like Soldier In Milan, King Rasko Grey, Riskaway, Conman John and Sticktotheplan.
With David Maxwell retiring through injury, he put his horses into a dispersal sale and Ben Pauling snapped Mondoui’boy up for £115,000. He repaid the faith by winning at Ludlow on his very first start for the stable, which was also his hurdling debut. He was well supported into 11/10F and comfortably beat a nice looking Kim Bailey horse, Island Bridge. With just that one run over Hurdles, he is very unexposed and he really could be anything. The vibe from the stable is very strong, and they see as an Aintree horse, although he will need to win this race for Aintree to be a serious consideration.
Alexei @ 4/5 - This progressive six-year-old can win what looks to be a match with Rubaud
Alexei has had a whirlwind season for connections. At the end of last season he was getting beaten in Handicaps offa mark of 130, and now his name is in the Champion Hurdle conversation. The season started off with a fantastic second to Celtic Dino in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. Arguably he was an unlucky loser that day as Celtic Dino hit a hurdle, causing Alexei to jump it awkwardly, which in turn cost him momentum. With a clean jump at the last, Alexei would have got close at the very least.
Since that run, it’s been onwards and upwards for Alexei. He won a valuable Handicap Hurdle at Ascot, before defying a 7lb rise in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in superb style. The handicapper had his say, raising him by a further 13lb (20lb in total for his two wins). Despite that rise, he still ran another massive race carrying 12st in another very valuable Handicap at Ascot.
He was raised a further pound for that run and is now rated at 148. Therefore, Joe Tizzard has made the logical call to switch him from Handicaps to Graded races. This race, the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle, looks an ideal opportunity to test him and a big performance here would likely book his ticket for a wide open renewal of the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, he only has one to beat, which is Rubaud. He is a solid yardstick, rated 1lb superior, but conceding 2lb. He is also two years older and far more exposed.
With Alexei on a progressive projection and form that's littered with winners, I would be disappointed if he couldn’t beat Rubaud. The other two runners, Secret Squirrel and Intellotto, have a bit to find on ratings, and look to be here to pick up place money, with anything better seen as a bonus.
With all due respect to Alastair Ralph, you won’t find his runners at the top of the market for £50,000 handicaps on Saturday all too often. However, it is well deserved here with Lightningupourdays as he looks to have a massive chance! He has done very little wrong over Hurdles to date, with his races in defeat working out very well. In a Maiden Hurdle in May 2024, they may have been disappointed to finish fourth but the three ahead of him were Valgrand, Kap Ouest and Came From Nowhere, so that worked out nicely.
He then bumped into Wendigo first time out the following season, who is now a single figure price for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. He could then only finish third on his following run but the two ahead of him - Bucephalus and Norn Iron are now rated significantly higher, so that is more form that reads very well. Sadly he was then on the sidelines for 339 days after that run.
Just before Christmas he had his reappearance from that absence at Hereford. Four runners pulled clear of the field that day and with less than five lengths covering the four at the line, he ended up finishing third. Yet again, the form looks red hot with the winner and second both winning off higher marks next time out. The pair ahead of him were rated 117 and 124 that day and now they are rated 132 and 130 respectively. Given his proximity to them, he looks very well treated off 119 and even more so considering that was his first run after an absence. Given that, he has every right to take a big step forward here too. You need to be very well handicapped to win a ÂŁ50,000 handicap and I think he has enough up his sleeve!
Pic d’Orhy @ 15/8 - A third consecutive Ascot Chase win awaits Pic d’Orhy!
This selection may raise a few eyebrows as we’re taking on Jonbon here. After all, Jonbon is an 11-time Grade 1 winner, who has never been out of the first two in 26 starts under Rules, with 19 of them being wins. He is also 2/2 over intermediate trips, both at Grade 1 level and he even won a Point-To-Point over 3m. Therefore, he has a very strong case on paper and if everything is taken literally, he could be a very tough nut to crack here, and clearly warrants his odds on price.
All of that said, he is 10 now and he is not the horse he once was if you believe the handicapper’s rating. He has also had two hard races in a row with the latter being particularly gruelling. In addition to that, he will also be heading to either the Champion Chase or the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival next month and I’m sure his connections already have one eye on that. This stiff 2m5f in testing ground will also be his biggest test of stamina to date and whilst his pedigree and runs would suggest it could suit, he has to prove that. At the business end, will he start to wilter as he enters new territory, especially off the back of a hard run?
In stark comparison, Pic d’Orhy is not a Cheltenham horse and this race is his Gold Cup. It has been for the last two years and he has delivered a win on both occasions and I think he can land the hat-trick here. He is 11 now, so he too is getting into his twilight years but that said, his Charlie Hall second was arguably a career best despite his age. Also whereas Jonbon comes here off the back off a tough run last month, he has been freshened up since November with a view to him being at his peak here. Will it be easy to bet Jonbon, absolutely not. Do I think he can beat Jonbon? Absolutely. Especially if Nico rides him Jonbon with the trip in mind and lets Pic d’Orhy get an easy lead on the front end. Nico may well find Pic d’Orhy isn’t coming back to him as they enter the final stages!
Can these four horses win for us?
Hopefully today’s selections are at that price point where they have an outstanding chance of winning but they are not stupidly short prices. Whilst one is an odds on shot, he fully deserves to be and arguably should be shorter. The other three are then priced up at 13/8, 5/1 and 15/8.
Ben Pauling could have a fantastic horse on his hands in the form of Mondou’boy and I hope he can step up to the mark and cement his claims for a spot at Aintree. Lightningupourdays would be a huge winner for Alastair Ralph and I think he has every chance of doing it. Many times you will see horses at the top of the market in these big handicaps because of who trains them. However, coming from a smaller stable, Lightningupourdays is there fully on merit and could take an awful lot of beating. Alexei is a skinny price but if continues to progress, he should be well up to winning this and hopefully he can throw himself into the Champion Hurdle mix in a wide open year. Last but certainly not least, we have Pic d’Orhy and with some question marks hanging over Jonbon, I think he can land a third Ascot Chase or as his connections will see it, his Gold Cup!
At the prices quoted, even just the two shortest runners winning would see us return most of stake. With the shortest three winning, we would over double our outlay and if the 5/1 shot is one of them, it would be considerably more. Of course, the dream is the full house, which would pay in excess of 18x our stake despite no runner being greater than 5/1 here!
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