Key Points
- It’s Saturday and I have more Lucky 15 picks for you!
- You can watch all four races live on ITV Racing!
- I have switched things up this week with a win only Lucky 15!
It’s Saturday and that means it’s time for another Lucky 15. As usual, I’ve looked at the ITV Racing action and this week it’s all about Haydock and Ascot. For only the second time since my Lucky 15s were introduced, I have opted to go win only rather than each way. That's because I think all four of the horses I’ve selected have a fantastic chance of winning.
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As it’s Saturday, you may be more of a casual punter who is looking to learn more about the sport. If that's the case, you should check out my educational guides. A couple of topics I've covered recently are
Market Movers
and
UK Horse Racing Weights, but there are many others to read too!
Betting advice - A win only Lucky 15
- 13:25 Haydock -
Hurricane Pat
@ 2/1
- 13:40 Ascot -
Joyeuse
@ 9/2
- 14:00 Haydock -
Johnnywho
@ 7/2
- 15:30 Ascot -
Jonbon
@ 9/2
bet365 has the best odds for this week’s Lucky 15!
Not for the first time, bet365 is offering the
best horse racing odds
for this week’s Lucky 15. To give some context, bet365 has a combined price of 407.38/1, whereas the next best is only 356.23/1. In addition to that there’s a great deal for new customers too. If you sign up and bet £10, you’ll get £30 of free bets. Awesome value all round!
I hunted for winners and I believe I’ve found some!
As a general rule, I search for value much deeper in the market, rather than tipping at the top end of it. But today, I have made an exception. When I looked through the ITV Racing cards, these four horses stood out. So much so that I’ve opted for a win only Lucky 15 today. That said, none of them are favourites in their races, so there is still some juice in the prices.
Hurricane Pat @ 2/1 - He can cause a storm by beating Supreme candidate Old Park Star!
To kick off our Lucky 15, we head to Haydock for the Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle which is a Grade 2 trial for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star heads the field and he is odds on to win this race. Incidentally, Old Park Star is priced up as short as 5/1 for the Supreme. I do understand it, he’s trained by Nicky Henderson who has a fantastic record in the race, and the horse couldn’t have won any more easily last time out if he'd tried!
That said, going into the race, Nicky Henderson thought he would be stepping Old Park Star up in trip, which doesn’t fill me with confidence. The form of that latest win has also taken some knocks, with the other three runners in that race all being well-beaten next time out. So, at an odds on price, I’m taking him on with Hurricane Pat for the Gary & Josh Moore team. He won a stronger, Class 1 Listed race at Sandown just as easily, never coming off the bridle.
Unlike Old Park Star, Hurricane Pat’s form has been franked by Sober Glory, who won earlier this week. In my opinion, Old Park Star could be anything, and if the trainers were the other way around, the prices could easily reverse too. I think Hurrican Pat can burst the Old Park Star bubble, and get our Lucky 15 off to a flyer!
Joyeuse @ 9/2 - This mare is completely overlooked due to recency bias
In the Grade 2 Warfield Mares’ Hurdle at Ascot, we have our second leg of the Lucky 15, and it’s Joyeuse for the Nicky Henderson stable. This mare showed tons of ability when she won the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last February. She didn’t just win it either, she won it going away by eight lengths, making a very competitive field look like light work.
She switched to Chasing at the start of this season and was disappointing, as she was beaten twice, albeit finishing second in both races. Nicky Henderson subsequently aborted that plan and switched her back to Hurdles. Horses can often underperform switched from one discipline to another, and while she may be a 140 Hurdler, I don’t think she is well handicapped off that mark. To win the top Handicaps, you need something up your sleeve when it comes to the handicapper, which Nicky clearly didn't have, so it was no surprise to see her beaten there.
Today's race is a different test altogether. As this is a Grade 2 race, handicap marks don't come into the equation. They all start with 11st 2lb and only carry penalties for winning certain races. So, despite Joyeuse being rated 10lb superior to La Conquiere, and 8lb superior to Sunset Marquesa and Ooh Betty, she only has to give them 2lb, 4lb and 4lb respectively. She is 2lb wrong at the weights with Nurse Susan, but I think that one wants further. Over this trip, I think Joyeuse can beat her too, off level weights.
Johnnywho @ 7/2 - A huge eye-catcher last time, this race is perfect for his strong finishing style
I think the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase is a fascinating race this year, despite there only being seven runners. I've opted for Johnnywho for the third leg of our Lucky 15, who runs for the Jonjo & A J O’Neill stable. This horse was a huge eye-catcher at Ascot last time out, where he ran in the very valuable Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase. He made headway from three out, and powered home best of all, but he couldn’t reel in the two leaders, and was beaten half a length at the line. With a slightly longer trip, he’d have won, but over 3m he just ran out of track.
That's why I think this 3m 1.5f trip at a galloping track like Haydock will suit him better. In addition, I think this race could set up perfectly for him. Myretown and Konfusion both appear well-treated, but they both like to dominate from the front. When you have more than one horse that likes to adopt that tactic, they can take one another on and do too much too soon.
If they do go off at a ferocious gallop, they may well set this race up for a strong finisher. I think Johnnywho could come with a big late challenge, and mow them down to take the win here. There's also the fact that Myretown must prove his jumping can hold up, and the form for Konfusion’s latest win is questionable too.
Jonbon @ 9/2 - With conditions in his favour this is a great opportunity forJonbon
Last, but certainly not least, we have Jonbon in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) at Ascot. He won this race last year, beating Willie Mullins’ Energumene. This is a race that Nicky Henderson has also won before, with the likes of Shishkin and Altior, who share many similarities with Jonbon.
Now, there is no doubt that Il Etait Temps is a very smart horse, as his 172 rating suggests. There were also no excuses for Jonbon last time out in the Tingle Creek, where he had to settle for second place behind Il Etait Temps. However, Jonbon did the donkey work in front, and unfortunately set the race up for Il Etait Temps, who had a superior finish that day. There are four runners in this year's renewal, and with all due respect to Thistle Ask and Gidleigh Park, I’d be shocked if Jonbon couldn’t beat them. That just leaves him with Il Etait Temps to beat.
There are a few factors that could swing this race in Jonbon’s favour. Firstly, he is a stronger stayer, and this 2m 1f trip with a stiff finish will suit him. Secondly, Thistle Ask is likely to go off like a rocket and do the donkey work, meaning Jonbon can produce a stronger finish this time around. Lastly, Nico de Boinville is engaged at Haydock, where he is riding Old Park Star. That means the newest JP McManus recruit, Harry Cobden, gets an early chance to ride Jonbon, and I’m excited to see the two together. With 1/2 odds for Il Etait Temps, and 9/2 for Jonbon, there's no question about which one I'd back.
Can these four runners produce a profit on our Lucky 15?
I think I've found the sweet spot today. All four of the horses I've picked are close to the top of the market, but with other (beatable) horses ahead of them. That means there is value in my selections at their current odds.
Hurricane Pat is the shortest, but that's because Nicky Henderson trains him, plus all the hype around the horse, suggesting he could be the next Seven Barrows star. Joyeuse is very well suited by the conditions of her race, and that should give her an edge over her rivals. I also believe the races for Johnnywho and Jonbon will set up perfectly for them, and they are both overlooked in the market.
At the prices quoted, we just need two winners to see a profitable return. While three winners, we would see our stake multiplied x10. Naturally, the dream is a full house, which would pay out in excess of 60x our stake. But now is not the time to count our chickens, we'll just have to wait a few more hours and see what hatches.
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