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Horse Racing Betting Tips - ITV Racing Picks - A Lucky 15 for Saturday 2 May 2026 - Newmarket & Thirsk

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Publish Date: 02/05/2026

Fact checked by: Jordan Noble

Key Points

A Lucky 15 to add some zest to Saturday’s racing action!
All four races can be viewed live on ITV Racing
We have three at Newmarket and one at Thirsk

It’s Saturday and it’s a huge day of racing! We have seven racecards across the UK and Ireland, including the fifth and final day of the 2026 Punchestown Festival and the 2,000 Guineas meeting at Newmarket. This article is providing a Lucky 15 across the ITV Racing action and this week, that action comes from Newmarket, Goodwood and Thirsk. For the Lucky 15 , we have three horses at Newmarket, including a runner in the feature race, the 2,000 Guineas and then the other horse runs in the Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap at Thirsk!

Whether you are a regular reader or a newcomer to my content, welcome! If you are just finding my content for the first time, I’m Gav or RacingGav over on X. I have been providing free horse racing tips here, as the resident horse racing expert since March 2025. My tips are daily, antepost or as in this article, in the form of a Lucky 15! The former two are more serious, tracked bets, like today's betting tip for the 2026 Punchestown Festival, whereas the Lucky 15s are more for fun and entertainment!

Whilst I’m sure the betting tips are likely what brought you here, there is far more here than just that. As well as the tips, I produce many other forms of content and these include educational guides, big race trends, trainers to follow, horses to follow and more! If you’re currently a casual weekend punter but you’re looking to take the game a bit more seriously and further your knowledge, it would be worthwhile checking out my educational guides. A good place to start is betting fundamentals but understanding the UK handicap system, will come in handy too.

Betting advice - An each way Lucky 15

14:20 Newmarket - Erzindjan @ 17/2 (4 places)
14:40 Thirsk - Mirsky @ 15/2 (4 places)
14:55 Newmarket - Beckford’s Folly @ 10/1 (4 places)
15:35 Newmarket - Distant Storm @ 9/2 (4 places)

Betfred has the best odds, four places and £50 in free bets!

At the time of writing, Betfred has the best horse racing odds for our Lucky 15 with a combined price of 4,884/1! In addition, they have four places in each of the four races, which is better than the industry standard! The fantastic value continues with their new customer offer. If you open a new account and bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free bets. Don’t forget to check this out.

I think I have found the sweet spot with these four

As their prices suggest, I have picked out four horses for you that I believe to be in that sweet spot where they are great each way value but also have a live chance of winning as well. I could tip you four favourites in a Lucky 15 to win but you could likely pick them out yourselves and there is also arguably no real value. Similarly I could go for four that have a squeak at outrageous prices but we’re unlikely to make the most of the multiples here with them. Whereas I think these four are perfect types for an each way Lucky 15.

Erzindjan @ 17/2 - He is better than his fourth place in the Cambridgeshire suggests!

After nearly a year off the track, T J Kent brought Erzindjan back in fantastic form last season. On his return at York in the John Smith’s Cup Handicap, he ran a stormer from the rear to finish fourth. All three who finished ahead of him were handy throughout, so the performance could be marked up. His connections were hopeful he could go even better second time out with that run under his belt but sadly he was denied a clear run and finished seventh, albeit only beaten three lengths.

Erzindjan then ran over this C&D in the Cambridgeshire and I backed him and tipped him at a big price. Frustratingly, the race developed on the far side of the track and it produced the 1-2-3. Therefore, Erzindjan was set an impossible task racing on the near side. Despite the inconvenience, he ran on superbly well to finish fourth, beaten just a length and a half, a long way clear of his rivals on the near side. It was arguably as frustrating at York the run after as well, where he was sent of 9/4F but he was short of room over 2f out and continued to wait for room over 1f out. By the time he got free, it was too late and he was beaten less than two lengths at the line. His connection’s ambitiously ran him in Listed company on his final start of the season where he was never a threat but that is hardly surprising considering the race conditions.

Erzindjan returns now after being off the track since 1st November 2025. Given how well he ran the first time out last season, I wouldn’t be worried about him first time out here. This is the same C&D as the Cambridgeshire too, so we know that he enjoys it and he is only 1lb higher than that run. Ray Dawson, who rode him in the Cambridgeshire is back aboard for the first time since as well. With a field of 13 declared to run, he should find it easier to get a clear run here. Despite the small field, he should also get a strong pace to aim at with Bullet Point and Mister Winston expected to go forward. He deserves to win a nice handicap and hopefully he can do so first time out here. At 17/2, with four places being paid, he certainly looks great each way value to me.

Mirsky @ 15/2 - As a C&D winner, he should run a big race off this mark!

If you look back to the 2024 renewal of this Thirsk Hunt Cup, you’ll find that Mirsky ran fifth, beaten by just over two lengths. He shaped like the lack of a recent run took its toll, and that run was off a mark of 98, which saw him carrying 9st 9lb. He ended up having a winless year in 2024 but his best performance of the year interestingly came on Good to Firm ground at York when just half a length second to Thunder Run.

In addition to the fifth in this race in 2024, Mirsky has had one other start at Thirsk came in May last year and it saw him land a C&D win off a mark of 88. Not only did he win that day, he backed it up with another win at Epsom next time out off a 2lb higher mark of 90. He ran below his best in the final two starts of 2025 but he came back with a bang at Musselburgh. Last year, Mirsky took a big step forward from his reappearance run to win his next two starts. This year, he ran a cracker first time out and hopefully he can back it up or perhaps even build on it.

That reappearance run came over 1m1f and to be, that just looked to stretch him. Dropped back to 1m and with the ground officially described as Good to Firm, these conditions should be ideal for Mirsky. He also runs off a mark of 93, which is 5lb below his fifth in 2024 and just 3lb above his last win. Assuming he doesn’t “bounce” on this second run after a 281-day break, he should hold every chance here and looks great each way value at 15/2.

Beckford’s Folly @ 10/1 - I think this one is underestimated at a double figure price!

I was against Beckford’s Folly at a short price in the Abernant Stakes where I tipped Quinault who finished in third. As I explained in my article that day, a three-year-old hadn’t won the race for 30 years. I clearly wasn’t alone in taking Beckford’s Folly on as he was one of the market principals initially but he ended up being sent off 8/1. Between the drift and the ride, I think that was merely just a prep run, as William Buick eased right off at the business end, just nursing him home. Even still, he was only beaten three lengths at the line.

It is also worth noting that the Abernant Stakes was over 6f, whereas his previous win was over C&D in the Cornwallis Stakes. Not only did he win that day, he set a new juvenile course record. With a run under his belt, the experience of taking on his elders in the Abernant Stakes and the return to 5f, I think Beckford’s Folly could run a huge race here.

Interestingly, if you take a look at the official ratings and the weights, Beckford’s Folly actually comes out best here too when factoring in the three-year-old allowance of 9lb and even accounting for the 3lb penalty for winning a Group 3. The highest rated runner is Asfoora who is 115 but she has to shoulder 9st 13lb. The other three ahead of Beckford’s Folly on ratings are Ain’t Nobody, JM Jungle and Quinault, but they are all rated only one or two pound superior but have to give her 6lb (9st 9lb vs 9st 3lb). I think Beckford’s Folly will take a big step forward here and he will outrun his odds. Hopefully he can emulate Seven Questions who won this race as a three-year-old in 2024.

Distant Storm @ 9/2 - We stick with Godolphin for the 2,000 Guineas!

Before we get onto Distant Storm himself, we first have to acknowledge Godolphin’s record in this race in recent years. Using their best placed finisher only, their form figures in the race over the last decade read 3230321611. As you can see, they are almost always there or thereabouts and they have also won three of the last four renewals of this Classic. Charlie Appleby (trainer) specifically has won three of the last four renewals and from 2020 onwards, he has had three winners and four places from 12 runners. Overall, he is also profitable to back in this race with his all time £1 level stake sat at +£13.50.

Distant Storm is quite literally bred for the job as well. His sire - Night Of Thunder, won the 2014 renewal of this race, which bodes well. Hopefully he can follow in his father’s footsteps and repeat his success! Distant Storm’s purchase price was rather eye-watering too, as whilst he was purchased as a yearling for 90,000 gns, he sold on for 1,900,000 euros as a two-year-old.

Distant Storm finished third in the Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) last October after being sent off 9/4 for the race. Interestingly, his penultimate furlong was the fastest in the race but he was then slightly eased down by William Buick once the race had gone. William Buick commented after the race that he felt that the immaturity was coming out in him that day and that he rode like a horse who will be better with some time over the winter to develop. That is now exactly what he has had. He had a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting and that should see him cherry ripe now. I’d be shocked if he’s not fighting out the finish so between that, his price of 9/2 and four places on offer, I think he’s a great final leg for our Lucky 15.

Can we land another profitable Lucky 15?

We have had great success with these Lucky 15s through the spring and hopefully that can continue today with another profitable one.

I have been crunching the numbers and based on the prices quoted, even just four places would provide us with nearly a 5x return on investment. Of course the dream is to land the full house and based on just a fifty pence each way stake, the total returns would be £3,964.36, which is over a 264x return on investment.

These are four wide open and ultra competitive races, so winning them won’t be easy. It will take plenty of good fortune along the way but hopefully they all get a fair crack at their respective races. If they do, I think all four can run into the frame and hopefully even better!

Five bookmaker offers for you!

Here are five of the best betting offers for horse racing that are currently available via our bookmaker partners. It truly is worth taking the time to explore these as there is such great value on offer!

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