
It’s Saturday and regular readers will know what that means, it’s time for a Lucky 15 to spice things up! As usual, I have tackled the ITV Racing action for you and this week it comes from Kelso, Newbury and Bangor-On-Dee and this Lucky 15 has selections from all three tracks! The Lucky 15 bets have been producing great returns in recent weeks and hopefully I can continue that strong record with today’s as well!
If you’ve just encountered my content for the first time, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert at Betting.co.uk. As part of my role here, I publish several articles per week, which are generally free horse racing tips. These can be daily betting tips, antepost bets, or even an article like this where I put together a Lucky 15. Outside of these tipping articles, you’ll find other types of content such as educational guides and big race trends.
As a general rule, I produce educational pieces every week, but with the Cheltenham Festival taking over in recent weeks, these have been pushed to the side of late. That said, there is the back catalogue of articles that I have already produced, if you want some educational content to read. This back catalogue covers topics like market movers and the impact of track bias. These guides can help your progress as a punter and the knowledge is sure to come in handy for the remaining spring festivals.
The best horse racing odds for today’s Lucky 15 are available at QuinnBet, who are offering combined odds of 175.96/1. You might also be interested to know that QuinnBet has a fantastic deal for new customers too. If you deposit and bet at least £10, you’ll get 50% back as a free bet, up to £25. That’s awesome value all round!
This week I’ve opted for a win only Lucky 15, so places won’t do here, we want them all to win their races. Thankfully, I think all four horses have a huge chance of doing exactly that, and I’ll break down my reasoning for each of them next.
We are yet to see Hollygrove Cha Cha race beyond 2m 5f. But the way she powered home over that trip in testing conditions at Warwick last time out bodes well. She was ridden aggressively that day, and easily outstayed her rivals, showing that she has plenty of stamina.
Her pedigree also suggests that she will relish this 3m 0.5f trip. She is a half-sister to 2m 7f hurdle winner, Sheila Nash, and her dam is a half-sister to the very talented stayer Gowel Road. It’s also noteworthy that her sire, Affinisea, has produced offspring that include the Grade 1 Savills Chase winner Affordable Fury.
Based on her form and her superior 140 rating, Hollygrove Cha Cha is the one to beat here. With further progression on the cards over this 3m 0.5f trip, she will be a tough nut to crack.
Khrisma is a very talented and progressive six-year-old mare for Nicky Henderon and J P McManus. After joining Seven Barrows from France she placed in her first two Novice Hurdles, which were strong races at Windsor and Punchestown. This season she has produced form figures of 121, and with a better jump at the last at Huntingdon, she would be 3/3 this season.
She is improving with every run this season as proven by her RPRs of 108, 115 and 128. It’s easy to see why she was well-fancied for the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. However, despite being at the top of the market she was balloted out and subsequently didn’t run.
However, every cloud has a silver lining and while it was disappointing for Nicky and J P to miss the County Hurdle, it means runs here instead. Whilst Kelso isn’t as sexy as the Cheltenham Festival, this race is worth nearly £100,000, with £51,440 going to the winner. Although she will carry 12st here as the top rated horse in the race, I think she has the class to give them the weight and a beating here.
I have always been a huge fan of Knappers Hill. He is an eleven-time winner under Rules, with four of his wins coming in Grade 2 races, and spread across Bumpers, Hurdles and fences.
He switched to Chasing for the 2023/24 season, and he was fantastic when winning the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase at Wincanton. But sadly we didn’t see him on the track again after that for 742 days, which was a real shame. The handicapper allowed him to return off a reduced mark of 146, when he was previously rated at 153, which was very generous. He ran respectable races in his first two runs back, before finding the Heavy going at Warwick on his next outing.
After those three runs,his mark came down even further, to just 142, and I think he’s a good deal better than that, even at the age of 10. Harry Cobden rode Knappers Hill to victory for eight of his eleven wins, so it’s eye-catching that he takes to rife today. Heltenham deserves plenty of respect here, but he looks high enough in the handicap now, and he’d prefer softer ground. So with the ground drying up nicely, I fancy Knappers Hill to cause an upset in this £40,000 Handicap Chase.
Norman Fletcher won a Handicap Hurdle off a mark of 123 on the second start of his 2024/25 campaign. He was winless in his next five starts that season, so he came back for the 2025/26 season off his last winning mark of 123.
He started his campaign in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow where he ran a very respectable race in fifth. However, that looks extremely good now in hindsight, as the form couldn’t have worked out any better:
I expected him to improve on his next start at Cheltenham, and I wasn’t alone, as he was gambled into joint-favourite from a double figure price. Sadly he was pulled up after suffering an irregular heartbeat, so I’d draw a line through that run, and also his next two as both were on unsuitably soft ground. I thought he was well handicapped off 123, but he comes here 5lb lower off a mark of 118, plus James Turner claims a further 5lb! If he enjoys being back on better ground and doesn’t suffer any issues or mishaps, he must have a huge chance here!
I appreciate the 7/4 on Hollygrove Cha Cha and the 6/5 on Khrisma are not exciting prices but they are short prices for good reason in my eyes. There is then more juice in the 7/2 for Knappers Hill and the 11/2 for Norman Fletcher which boosts our returns from this Lucky 15 if they can deliver.
I think Hollygrove Cha Cha will stay the longer trip and if she does, I think it will take an underperformance to see her beaten. I’m excited to see what Khrisma can do as whilst carrying top weight is a tough task, I think she could have plenty more to come off her mark of 128. Knappers Hill can make up for lost time over at Newbury, bringing down the favourite - Heltenham, with conditions to suit our horse. We then have the overdue winner Norman Fletcher to complete the four timer and if he gets a fair crack at it, I believe he will do exactly that.
At the prices quoted, even just the two shorties winning would see us recoup over 73% of our outlay. However, if we can get the first three up, we will see a 4.3x return on our investment. The dream is for the four timer to land and if that can happen, we’re looking at a return nearly 33x our initial stake! You have to buy a ticket to win the raffle and we’re giving it a go!
Below you will find a list of our recommended bookmaker partners and the betting offers for horse racing they currently have available. As you will see, they can bring added value to your betting, and I strongly recommend you check them out!
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