Key Points
- It’s Saturday, which means another Lucky 15!
- Three runners at Haydock and one from York!
- You can watch all four horses run on ITV Racing!
For this week’s Lucky 15 I’ve picked three horses running at Haydock and one at York. As usual, I’ve tried to find value and the average odds for these four horses is almost 10/1. We’ve had some great results recently, and hopefully that will continue today.
If you’re here for the first time, then welcome! I’m RacingGav, the resident horse racing expert here and I’ve been putting up
free horse racing tips
since March 2025. Whether you like daily betting, antepost selections or just fun bets like this Lucky 15, there should be something for everyone.
If you’re a fan of antepost betting, be sure to check out the tips I’ve already published. I have a 66/1 for the
2027 Aintree Grand National
and a 50/1 selection for the
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
at the 2027 Cheltenham Festival.
Betting advice - An each way Lucky 15
- 14:20 Haydock -
Langstone
@ 9/1 (5 places)
- 14:40 York -
Toca Madera
@ 14/1 (5 places)
- 14:58 Haydock -
Venetian Sun
@ 11/4 (3 places)
- 15:30 Haydock -
First Instinct
@ 14/1 (4 places)
Bet365 has the best odds for our Lucky 15!
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for today’s Lucky 15! At prices of 9/1, 14/1, 11/4 and 14/1, the combined odds for all four horses are 8,436/1. If you don’t have an account,
bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets.
Today’s Lucky 15 has tremendous value!
I think all four of these horses have a great chance today, and one of them will be especially hard to beat. With average odds of 10/1 across the four, they seem are underestimated and it’s highly likely they’ll all go off at shorter prices.
Langstone @ 9/1 - A progressive horse seeking a hat trick on his Handicap debut!
The first horse up for our Lucky 15 is Langstone, who tackles the 17-runner Silver Bowl Handicap at Haydock, which is a valuable and prestigious Heritage Handicap. With the size of the field and the fact it is made up of unexposed three-year-olds, it’s tough to pick the winner. However, Langstone has caught my eye and at 9/1, he seems a good choice.
Langstone was pretty average on his debut at Leicester, producing a RPR of just 58. However, after a winter break and a gelding operation, he has come back a different horse. He won on reappearance in a Novice Stakes at Doncaster and improved on that to win again at Kempton last time.
Despite running to a RPR of 89 at Kempton last month, the handicapper has given him an opening mark of 87 and that could underestimate his ability. Especially as he is so lightly raced, so almost certainly still improving and he could improve even further for the step up in trip from 7f to 1m here. With Clifford Lee opting to take rides on this Haydock card rather than a ride in the Irish 2000 Guineas, he takes over from Rob Hornby here and he will want to win to justify that big decision! Hopefully he can get our day off to a flier with Langstone!
I’m very sweet on Toca Madera in this 5f handicap at York and so much so that he is also
my main betting tip
for today. As explained in that article, he has strong C&D form from last year and he ran an excellent race last time out, which I feel has gone under the radar.
The draw is crucial at York and he’s landed a low one, with ground to suit as well. With jockey Daniel Tudhope in the saddle I think we could see the old Toca Madera back! He’s certainly handicapped to strike and it’s a perfect opportunity for him!
Venetian Sun @ 11/4 - This filly can bounce back running over 6f!
For the third leg of the Lucky 15, we head back to Haydock for the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes, where I’ve picked Venetian Sun who runs for Karl Burke. While Karl is a fantastic trainer, I feel he’s got Venetian Sun all wrong, albeit he looks to have corrected the course here.
Venetian Sun won her first four races, a Novice Stakes at Carlisle, a Group 3 at Ascot, a Group 2 at Newmarket, and then the Group 1 Prix Morny in Deauville. The first of those races was over 5f, and the other three were over 6f.
Despite her being a Group 1 winner over 6f, Karl Burke has tried to morph her into a 1000 Guineas horse. He tested the waters in the Moyglare last September, which is a 7f race. She ran well behind Precise and Beautify, but was beaten by 2.5 lengths at the line. She went to Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas earlier this month and she could only finish 11th. She looked like a non-stayer at that trip, and Karl Burke has sensibly reverted to sprints. With her proven Group 1 ability over 6f and her 3lb Fillies’ allowance, she will take some beating here.
First Instinct @ 14/1 - She was third in this race last year, and can do better this time!
Last but not least for the Lucky 15, we have First Instinct for the William Haggas stable. This filly has shown lovely progression through her career to date to notch wins in a Maiden, Novice Stakes, Listed company and then a Group 3 in September. She was also within half a length of being a Group 2 winner at Ayr and she was only beaten just over four lengths in Listed company at Beverley in August.
Her Group 3 win at Newbury showed the best of First Instinct and she beat Shagraan that day, who is near the top of the market for this race. Based on that form, the price difference between the two of them is far too big! She started this season by running in the Palace House Stakes, but had a horrible draw in stall 13. For context, the first three home came out of stalls 4, 5 and 2, which makes that run easy to forgive.
She needs to be at her best to win this, but I don’t think that’s unrealistic, especially with the juice in the ground, and, in a division that is notoriously wide open.
Can we add another profitable Lucky 15?
I have been delighted with the performance of our Lucky 15s recently, and with the great odds available for today’s selections, even four places would bring a return of £111.13 from a 50p each way stake. That is nearly a 7.5x return on the initial outlay, which would be fantastic and I think we’d have a great chance of hitting that.
Obviously it is a case of the more the merrier with winners and we can all dream of the near £7,500 returns for a full house, which would be very nice. It’s a long shot, but if you don’t buy a ticket, you’ll never win the raffle.
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4 hours ago
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