Let’s get the blood pumping with a Lucky 15
Due to the interest over the last three weeks, I have put together another Lucky 15 for today’s ITV Racing action. I know that a lot of you will be more casual punters, so I’m keen to keep things fun and exciting. Today’s ITV Racing coverage comes from Doncaster, Cheltenham and Newbury but it’s all about the action at Cheltenham for me!
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Betting advice - An Each Way Lucky 15
- 13:10 Cheltenham - Springs A Girl @ 12/1 (4 places)
- 13:45 Cheltenham - Conman John @ 11/2 (4 places)
- 14:20 Cheltenham - Backmersackme @ 9/1 (5 places)
- 14:55 Cheltenham - Winning Smut @ 13/2 (5 places)
Get the best Lucky 15 odds at bet365!
At the time of writing, bet365 has the best odds for today’s Lucky 15. As well as that, they have pretty generous place terms across the four races. The cherry on top is the fantastic sign up offer for new customers. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. Superb value on every level here!
All four selections available at great prices!
All of my Lucky 15 picks over the last few weeks have been based on each way prices, rather than backing four to win at the top of the market. With the way a Lucky 15 works, you can often generate a healthy return from places alone, and if any of the selections win it’s a bonus, as we have experienced in recent weeks.
Springs A Girl @ 12/1 - Should relish this step up in trip and improve
In the opener at Cheltenham, the 2m 4f Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, I like Springs A Girl for Martin Keighley. I mentioned this mare when I featured on The Final Flight Podcast ahead of The Welsh Racing Festival at Chepstow, but she was sadly a late non-runner on the day due to the fast ground. She really impressed me on her Chase debut at Worcester, especially as that was over an adequate trip of 2m 0.5f. With that experience under her belt, combined with the step up in trip here, I think she could improve significantly, and turn out to be much better than her mark of 117.
Sean Bowen has been retained in the saddle, which is a huge plus, and he has an impressive record for Martin Keighley. Despite Martin only operating at a 13% strike rate across the last five seasons, Sean has achieved a 19% strike rate riding for him, with 56 wins from 300 rides. At £1 level stakes, he is actually in profit to the tune of +£11.22, which is mighty impressive across that many rides. Martin has his horses in great form currently, with three winners in the last five days, including De Temps En Temps at this meeting yesterday!
Conman John @ 11/2 - Should thrive stepped up to a staying trip
In the next race, the 3m Novices’ Hurdle, I’m siding with Conman John for Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore. After finishing third in his first Point To Point, he won by 20 lengths at the second time of asking. He beat Daydream Nation into second place that day, and that one went on to win his next Point To Point by 16 lengths, before making his debut under Rules, and winning by the same margin..
After being purchased for £170,000, Conman John was switched to Bumpers and finished second on his first start for his new stable. Arguably they should have made more use of him, but the winner, Upon Tweet, looked useful. He was then due to run at the Scottish Grand National meeting, but was pulled out. I expected him to be put away for the summer, so it was interesting that they had enough confidence to send him to Punchestown. He ran a huge race there to finish in fifth, staying on strongly, despite going via the car park on the home bend!
Earlier this month, he won on debut over Hurdles, defeating stablemate Timefortom, up at Kelso over 2m 5f. To my eye, he looked like he would tighten up plenty for that run, and he will also relish the step up in trip here. That was a solid enough performance, but I think he can blow that out of the water today. When the going gets tough up the Cheltenham Hill at the end of these three miles, I see him digging in deep and thriving.
Backmersackme @ 9/1 - Runs for shrewd connections and Sean Bowen rides
In the third race at Cheltenham, the 3m 1f Handicap Chase, I’m taking a chance on Backmersackme for Emmet Mullins. I say I’m taking a chance, because it’s often exactly that with this trainer and owner Paul Byrne. Basically, you need to read between the lines rather than paying attention to what you see in black and white. If you misread, it can go horribly wrong, but entirely the opposite when you get it right.
The politically correct way to describe this partnership is probably shrewd, but there are plenty of other words you could use! Let’s just say, they know how to prepare one for a big day, even if the form book doesn’t suggest a big day is coming. This horse has shown plenty of ability in some nice Handicaps, and Listed races, plus he even had a crack at Grade 1 company over Hurdles.
As yet, we haven’t seen him perform over fences. In fact, he’s been beaten 112 lengths in his four starts to date. As a result he has an attractive mark of 124 here, which subsequently sees him carrying just 10st 2lb as he rocks up at Cheltenham for this £100,000 handicap. In addition to that Champion Jockey - Sean Bowen, has been booked to ride. He has only ever had five rides for Emmet Mullins, resulting in two wins, one third and two fourths. So it’s safe to say that when they bring in Sean, the horses tend to fire. I also don’t think Sean would take this ride unless Emmet and Paul had convinced him he would have a strong chance, especially as he has to get down to his lowest weight of 10st 2lb. This smells like a well orchestrated plan to scoop a big pot…
Winning Smut @ 13/2 - A hefty rise for his Listed win at Galway, but looks progressive
The final leg of our Lucky 15 comes in the fourth race, which is the 3m Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, a qualifier for the Series Final at the Cheltenham Festival. These qualifiers can be a bit of a minefield for a multitude of reasons. This particular one is right at the start of the season, so some won’t be fit and ready to perform. As it is a qualifier, some will just want to run into the first four to qualify for the final rather than win today. Then there will be a portion who will be fit, ready and trying to win.
The one I have landed on is Winning Smut for Gordon Elliott. He has already had three starts for the stable since joining them over the summer, so there will be no concerns about fitness with this fella. Gordon has done a great job with him already with form figures of 121 and progressive RPRs of 121, 125 and 130. He strikes me as a similar type to The Wallpark who won this race last year for the stable whilst on an upward curve. The Wallpark actually continued to progress and found himself running in Grade 1 company at Ascot, Cheltenham and Aintree.
Whilst I’m not saying he could hit those heights, I think there could still be more to come from Winning Smut. He was arguably unlucky at Killarney two runs back and with a clearer run, he could well be coming here with three wins from three races for the stable. I also liked the way he won gamely at Galway last time after hitting the front plenty soon enough and over a shorter trip of 2m6.5f. He should relish this step up in trip to 3m today and I think he has more to come before he hits his ceiling.
Can we land a big win with our Lucky 15?
As always, the ultimate dream is for all four to win. However, on a more realistic level, I just think that Springs A Girl, Conman John and Winning Smut all look to have improvement to come and subsequently rock solid each way chances. If all three of them can hit the frame, we’ll be in a very solid position.
As mentioned, Backmersackme is a more risky play but if I have read this right and he’s been laid out for this, Sean Bowen is unlikely to miss with him and he could be a lovely 9/1 winner for us. At the very least, I’d expect him to be hitting the frame, otherwise I cannot see why Sean Bowen would agree to ride him as he certainly wouldn’t have been short of offers in the race.
If nothing else, these selections should provide us with plenty of enjoyment across four great races at the home of Jump racing! But I’m quietly confident it can turn out to be especially rewarding for us too…
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