Key Points
- Let’s add some fun to Saturday with a Lucky 15 bet!
- Tune in for the ITV Racing action to watch these four horses run
- My four best picks from Musselburgh, Leopardstown and Sandown
Over the past few months, I have been posting Lucky 15 selections for the ITV Racing coverage. These are aimed at the more casual punters that turn up for the big Saturday action, but it’s out there for anyone to have some fun with. Everybody seems to be enjoying them and here is another one for you today!
If you’ve just come across my content for the first time, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert at Betting.co.uk. Part of my role here means I produce several articles per week, which are generally
free horse racing tips. They might be daily betting tips, antepost picks, or one like this where I put together a Lucky 15 for you. Beyond those, you’ll find other types of content like educational guides and big race trends.
I usually publish educational pieces every week, but as the Cheltenham Festival is fast approaching I will need to put those on hold for a while. However, if you want to get up to spec in the meanwhile, I have three educational guides you will want to read. They cover topical subjects like how to read
National Hunt form, how
racing weights
work, and the
types of headgear
you may see horses wearing. These guides can help you take a step up from being a casual follower, to getting more serious about the horse racing game, and they are all sure to come in handy over the next few weeks.
Betting advice - A win only Lucky 15
- 14:20 Musselburgh -
Insurrection
@ 10/3
- 14:55 Leopardstown -
Kargese
@ 15/8
- 15:10 Sandown -
Henri The Second
@ 10/3
- 15:30 Leopardstown -
Galopin Des Champs
@ 7/4
William Hill are offering the best odds for our Lucky 15!
At the time of writing, one bookmaker stands out as offering the
best horse racing odds
for my Lucky 15 selections. That bookmaker is William Hill with combined odds across the four selected horses of 147.49/1! The value doesn’t stop there with William Hill either. If you sign up and
bet £10, you’ll get £30 of free bets. This bookmaker consistently provides a great service, so if you don’t already have an account there, I highly recommend that you sign up.
I searched for winners and I believe I’ve found four!
More often than not, I search for value towards the bottom end of the market, but today, I have made an exception. When I looked through the ITV Racing cards, these four horses really caught my attention, so we’re going win only today. That said, none of them are priced too short, so we do have some value in their prices.
Insurrection @ 10/3 - This course winner can land the Scottish Champion Chase for Paul Nicholls
Insurrection won the Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at this meeting last year, which was named in honour of his former stablemate Frodon. I say he won, he absolutely demolished what looked like a competitive little field before the off. The winning margin was 16 lengths and the form has been solid since with all but one of the horses in that race winning, and the third-placed horse, Alien Storm, actually winning twice since.
Insurrection was quiet in the spring at Cheltenham and Sandown off 8lb and 7lb higher marks. However, after a 250-day break, he made a very solid reappearance over this C&D on New Year’s Day. He was working his way into the race when he made an error at the third last. Considering that, he did remarkably well to still finish third, only beaten 2.75 lengths. Just a repeat of that latest run would give him every chance, but with improvement to come, he should be a tough nut to crack at a meeting that his trainer likes to target.
Kargese @ 15/8 - Girl power! This mare can upset the Irish Arkle favourite
It is disappointing that Kopek Des Bordes does not compete in the Irish Arkle but Willie Mullins may still have the answer. Realistically, the odds on favourite Romeo Coolio is a two and half mile chaser. However, without that option available to him at the Dublin Racing Festival and with the ground testing, he is somewhat forced into the Irish Arkle. He’s certainly not short of talent but this is very much a case of hoping he is talented enough to get away with it rather than this being his optimal conditions.
On the other hand, I think Kargese is an out and out two miler. During her juvenile days she gave both Majborough and Sir Gino plenty to think about at Cheltenham and Aintree respectively. Interestingly, on the former occasion, she proved that she can handle very testing conditions, which is a big plus here today. Kept over hurdles she won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, which reads very well now with subsequent Galway Hurdle winner - Ndaawi in second and subsequent Ebor and Breeders Cup winner - Ethical Diamond, back in fourth. She was very impressive over this C&D over the festive period and over this trip, she could have too much speed for Romeo Coolio to handle. He also has to prove he can handle this very testing ground…
Henri The Second @ 10/3 - Henri The Second last year, I think he’ll be Henri the first this time
Speaking of very testing ground, that brings us perfectly onto the third leg of the Lucky 15 and it’s Henri The Second, who like Insurrection represents the Paul Nicholls stable today. This horse absolutely relishes testing ground and he also loves it around Sandown, so he gets his dreams coming true tomorrow when he tackles both. He absolutely bolted in, by no less than 18 lengths in December 2024 before finishing second in this race last year. He was sent off 9/4F and ran a big race, he just bumped into one.
To me, his run over 2m 4f here on Good ground simply looked like a prep run ahead of today. The trip was too short and the ground was too quick. However, despite having those factors against him, he still nearly won as he was only denied by a short head. He’s been raised 1lb but that still sees him sit 2lb below his mark from last year. Most importantly, he has his favoured bottomless conditions and that should see him thrive here. He was second best in this £100,000 handicap last year and I’m sure it’s been a long term plan to go one better this year… I think he can do it!
Galopin Des Champs @ 7/4 - The reigning champ can join Florida Pearl as a four-time Irish Gold Cup winner!
I have already advised Galopin Des Champs as an antepost bet in the
Irish Gold Cup. So rather than me covering the same points again, you can check out my in-depth assessment of this iconic horse, and why I think he can win a fourth consecutive renewal of the race today.
Can these four selections win for us today?
Hopefully today’s selections have landed in that sweet spot where they have a fantastic chance of winning but they are not sillily short prices. We’re not backing odds on shots here or anything close to it, with the shortest price being 7/4 and the biggest price being 10/3.
Paul Nicholls looks to have a great chance of landing valuable handicaps at Musselburgh and Sandown with Insurrection and Henri The Second. The latter feels like he has unfinished business after his second last year and hopefully he can go one better this time around. The market thinks Romeo Coolio will be tough to beat in the Irish Arkle at a price of 8/15 and shorter but I think Kargese could land the race for Willie despite the absence of Kopek Des Bordes. Then last but certainly not least, we have the legend that is Galopin Des Champs searching for a fourth consecutive Irish Gold Cup. Can he make history? I think he can!
At the prices quoted, even just the two shortest runners winning would see us return most of stake. With three winners, we would over a 5x return on our stake. Of course, the dream is the full house, which would pay in excess of 27x our stake despite no runner being greater than 10/3 here!
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