
Todayās ITV Racing is confined to Epsom as itās the final day of the Betfred Derby Festival, with the highlight being the Betfred Derby. As I do every Saturday, I have put together a Lucky 15 made up of horses running in the televised races. Once again we have a real mix of prices on offer ranging from 11/4 through to 16/1.
If you have no idea who I am, welcome to my articles! Iām RacingGav and Iām the expert on horse racing here at Betting.co.uk. Youāll find that I publish multiple articles here every week. The majority are free horse racing tips which include a Lucky 15 every Saturday. The rest of the week itās mainly daily and antepost betting tips.
Beyond betting tips I recommend horses and trainers to follow, and I also publish big race trends and educational guides. Two of the latter are pertinent to todayās betting tips. My guide to types of horse racing headgear, as my first selection wears a tongue tie, and as my third pick will be ridden by a 5lb Claimer today, knowing how Apprentice and Conditional jockey Claims work will come in handy too.
At the time of writing, the best horse racing odds for our Lucky 15 come from Unibet, with combined odds of 1,576.81/1. In addition, they are paying five places for the Dash (15:15) and four places for the Derby (16:00). As if that wasnāt enough, new customers who sign up and bet Ā£20 get Ā£40 of free bets.Ā What more could you ask for?
As regular readers will know, Iām very much focused on providing value selections rather than just the horses most likely to win at short prices. Although three of todayās selections are priced at 7/2, 11/4 and 9/2, none of them are favourites. We also have one selection at a massive price of 16/1, a horse feel has been completely underestimated in the market. Combined, we have a lovely mix for todayās Lucky 15.
The story behind Shes Perfect is one that every syndicate around the world dreams of. She's a Sioux Nation filly owned by The Basher Watts Syndicate, who was first past the post in the French 1000 Guineas. Only a select few experience owning a Classic winner, and while she was subsequently denied the race in the Stewards' room, Basher and his syndicate members must still be over the moon with their ā¬50,000 purchase. A total of 45 syndicate members will be in a hospitality box at Epsom today and I have no doubt that theyāll take the roof off if she wins. In all honesty, theyāll probably make their presence felt regardless!
Anyway, back to the horse! Following her run (arguable victory) in the French 1000 Guineas, she tested the waters in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly over 1m 2.5f. Sadly she didnāt stay that day, but full credit to them for having a go! Unfortunately she had a setback shortly after, and spent 321 days on the sidelines. Thankfully she made a return at Goodwood last month where she finished third, beaten by just over two lengths despite looking in need of the run and being looked after carefully by jockey Paddy Bradley.
Her usual partner, Kieran Shoemark, returns to the saddle today, and she is reportedly tighter and fitter for her comeback run. I think sheāll take some stopping in this Group 3 over a mile. Royal Ascot was another option for her, but this looks easier, and getting her head in front will do her confidence the world of good.
In the Coronation Cup, we have the highest-rated racehorse in the world and Iām taking him on! Last year Calandagan was sent off 8/13 favourite for this race, but he was denied by Jan Brueghel. I thought Jan Brueghel could defeat him, and I tipped him to do so and Iām doubling down again this time.
Overall, I think Calandagan is the better horse, but I think this race suits Jan Brueghel better, as does the softer going. While there are only six heading to post, half of them are trained by Aiden OāBrien. So Jan Brueghel has two stablemates here, where Calandagan comes alone.
I think we will see a repeat of last yearās tactics, where Aiden OāBrien used a pacemaker to make it a real end-to-end gallop. Jan Brueghel is a St Leger (1m 6.5f) winner, so he has stamina to spare over this trip, and will keep finding. As we saw last year, the strong pace and the cut in the ground blunted Calandaganās finishing effort and I see no reason why this yearās renewal will be any different. Jan Brughel caused an upset last year, and I see history repeating itself today.
Vintage Clarets is also my main bet for today, so be sure to check that out. Quite frankly I think his 16/1 price tag is insulting, and Iād say it's mainly due to recency bias. While I appreciate he has been a bit out of form recently, there's no reason he can't bounce back. If he does that here, he is extremely well handicapped, having finished fifth in this race last year off 11lb higher
Furthermore, he should love the track conditions today, he has the perfect draw, as Apprentice jockey Ethan Tindall takes a further 5lb off, he will only carry 8st 5lb. With ten career wins to date, this horse knows how to win and if Ethan can get away from the stalls promptly, I think heāll take some catching in the Dash!
Last but certainly not least, we have Item for Andrew Balding, Colin Keane and Juddmonte in the big one, The Betfred Derby! Fourteen runners are set to line up, all looking to claim their share of the £2,000,000 prize money. Of course the ultimate dream is to land this Classic and the first place prize of £1,000,000. Only one of them can fulfil that dream and I have landed on Item to be the one!
Being a Group 1 and a Classic with a huge prize pot, you can easily make a case for several contenders here. However, only one of them is unbeaten coming into the race and that is Item. For me, he is the best chance the British have of winning the Derby this year. Itāll take some winning though, as Aiden OāBrien nailed the last three renewals, and also six of the last ten. Together with his son Joseph OāBrien, they have three of the top four in the market this year too.
As well as being unbeaten, Item is also one of the least exposed, particularly among the principal contenders. He has only raced three times, and those runs were over distances of 7f, 1m and 1m 2.5f. His last run was in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York and he was mighty impressive, beating Aiden OāBrienās Action, going away at the finish. Given that was only Item's third start, his first run of this campaign, and a step up in trip, he has every right to improve. Trainer Andrew Balding is very confident heāll stay, and I agree, provided he settles in the early stages. If he does, I think he is the one they all need to beat!
Whilst I am very serious about my betting, these Lucky 15 bets are more for entertainment. That said, I still try my best to select winners. Last week, we hit one winner, with Washington Heights in the Achilles Stakes at Carlisle at a lovely price of 6/1. Hopefully we can replicate or exceed that with this weekās selections.
Regular readers will be used to me saying this but Iād take four places and if we do better, fantastic! It might not sound like much but if all four of these horses placed at 7/2, 11/4, 16/1 and 9/2, a 50p each way stake would return Ā£51.41, which is a return on investment of 242.73%. Of course, the dream is four winners and if we can pull that off, our Lucky 15 would return nearly Ā£1,600. That said, itās a big ask!
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