Key Points
- We add some fun to Saturday with a Lucky 15 bet!
- Watch all four horses race during the ITV Racing coverage
- My four best picks for this week at Warwick and Newbury
It’s Saturday again which means it’s time for a Lucky 15 bet across the races covered within the ITV Racing coverage. My regular single selections are primarily focused around producing a long term profit and they are doing exactly that. However, these Lucky 15 articles are aimed at the more casual punters that turn up for the big Saturday action, with much more consideration towards having fun rather than just pure profit.
If you’ve just come across my content for the first time, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert at Betting.co.uk. Part of my role here means I produce several articles per week, which are generally
free horse racing tips. They might be daily betting tips, antepost picks, or one like this where I put together a Lucky 15 for you. Beyond those, you’ll find other types of content like educational guides and big race trends.
As a general rule, I produce educational pieces every week, but with the Cheltenham Festival just around the corner, they have been put on the back burner for now. Of course, there is the back catalogue of articles that I have already produced, if you want some educational content to read. This back catalogue covers topics like
Market Movers
and
the impact of track bias. These guides can help progress you as a punter and that knowledge is sure to come in handy across the big Spring festivals.
Betting advice- A win only Lucky 15
- 13:50 Warwick -
Mambonumberfive
@ 6/4
- 14:10 Newbury -
L’Homme Presse
@ 6/4
- 14:45 Newbury -
Lulamba
@ 8/11
- 15:20 Newbury -
Let It Rain
@ 5/2
The value odds are coming from bet365!
At the time of writing this article on Friday evening, the
best horse racing odds
across the four selections come from bet365 at 36.84/1! To give some context, the rest of the market varies from 26.17/1 to 33.52/1. In addition to the best odds, bet365 also have a great sign up offer for new customers. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 of free bets. This bookmaker consistently provides a great service, so if you don’t already have an account there, give them a try.
I believe these four horses have an excellent chance of winning their races!
Sometimes the ITV Racing coverage can dictate how you have to play the game. This weekend, we have fairly limited options in terms of each way value, so I’ve opted for a win only Lucky 15 this week, and my four selections all have an excellent chance of winning..
Mambonumberfive @ 6/4 - Ben Pauling’s five-year-old can land his fourth consecutive win!
In the Kingmaker, there are only three runners, but only two that matter in my opinion: Steel Ally and Mambonumberfive. Whilst Mirabad is a lovely horse, he’s got 5lb to find with Mambonumberfive, and 7lb to find with Steel Ally, which looks a tall order. To me, this looks like Dan Skelton eyeing up third-place prize money just for completing the race, with the logic that anything else is a bonus.
When it comes to the other two, I have great respect for Steel Ally. He is progressing well, with a record of two from two this season, so he needs to be taken very seriously. That said, his last win was by far his best performance, and that was over a longer trip of 2m 3f. Judging by his 2m form against Mambonumberfive, I think the latter has the stronger form in the book. Likewise, with just nine starts under his belt under Rules compared to 15 for Steel Ally, Ben Pauling’s potential star is less exposed, and open to more improvement.
Based on ratings, Mambonumberfive has 4lb to find, but as a five-year-old, he gets a 2lb allowance. In these testing conditions, every 1lb on their back could make a difference. We have already seen what Steel Ally can do in more testing conditions, and over further. Conversely, Mambonumberfive has been running over this trip, and on better ground, despite promising to be suited by more of a stamina test. The improvement this test of stamina might unlock could separate him from his rivals here. For the reasons stated, I’m siding with Ben Pauling’s Mambonumberfive here, he could put in a performance that makes him a real Arkle contender.
L’Homme Presse @ 6/4 - Venetia Williams can win this race again with her stable star!
In the Denman Chase I’m going against the market favourite. We have four runners here with Haiti Couleurs topping the market, L’Homme Presse the second favourite and then Leave Of Absence and Riskintheground seemingly making up the numbers on ratings. The top two are rated 159 and 164, so it is a big drop back to the other pair rated just 146 and 140. This looks a case of having a safe round to collect the £9,630.00 and £4,797.00 for third and fourth respectively and if they can benefit from any mishaps, even better.
On ratings, L’Homme Presse is the one to beat as he is rated 5lb superior to Haiti Couleurs on current ratings. Even with L’Homme Presse giving Haiti Couleurs 2lb on the day, he still sits 3lb best on the weights. You could argue L’Homme Presse either way, you could say he’s on the decline at the age of 11 but at the same time, at his peak, he’d be even further clear of Haiti Couleurs. There was very little wrong with his second to Spillane’s Tower at Cheltenham last month and he’s reportedly come out of that race bouncing.
The way I would also look at this as well is that at L’Homme Presse’s age, you’re chucking the kitchen sink at each race this season as you know the end of his career is in sight and also, his chance of winning a big one like the Cheltenham Gold Cup is likely gone now. Whereas with Haiti Couleurs, whilst I’m sure they would like to win this, their focus is on the Cheltenham Gold Cup and using this race as a stepping stone. Therefore, if L’Homme Presse can give him a race, which I think he can, they could take a view to look after him. Therefore, between all of that and the prices, I’m siding with the second favourite to topple the favourite once again.
Lulamba @ 8/11 - This relative novice can show the old boys some new tricks!
The Game Spirit at Newbury will be a fascinating watch and it’s an ambitious call from Nicky Henderson to throw Lulamba into Open Grade 2 company against his elders and more importantly, more experienced chasers. There is no doubt that out of this field, he is the potential star that could go on to win Grade 1s. However, he is also lacking on the experience front in a significant way in comparison.
That said, this race sits favourably for him. Firstly, he receives 2lb from his rivals due to him being a five-year-old and them being six or older. He then also only has a half penalty of 3lb rather than the standard Grade 1 penalty of 6lb due to the fact his Grade 1 win came in Novice company. As a result, despite being top rated with further improvement expected, he only gives 1lb to the majority of the field and actually receives 5lb from last year’s winner - Master Chewy who is rated 2lb inferior.
Ultimately, I don’t think Nicky would run Lulamba here unless he felt he could win the race. I also don’t think he would be sending him here if he felt it would be a hard race for him ahead of the Arkle, so I think he believes that Lulamba can beat these rivals quite convincingly. I actually think it is fantastic placement for the above reasons but also long term, as this race should make a man out of him ahead of the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival next month. Nicky Henderson will be hoping for a smooth success here and I think Lulamba can deliver one.
Let It Rain @ 5/2 - This unexposed mare can add to the Skeltons' Handicap score this season!
The final leg of our Lucky 15 runs in the £155,000 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury. With fantastic prize money on offer, we have a big field of 16 runners challenging for this race. Despite the very testing conditions that await them, we should have an absolute cracker of a Handicap Hurdle here!
Dan Skelton has been scooping many of the big Handicaps this season through excellent handicapping and target training of his horses. With the £155,000 on offer and him pushing to secure his first Trainers Championship, I’m sure this race was very high up on his agenda at the start of this season. Dan throws two darts at this race but the most interesting one is Let It Rain. This unexposed mare has only had five starts under rules, only three of which have come over hurdles and just the one in handicap company. Whilst the inexperience would worry some, it also means that she could be anything and my guess would be that she is extremely well handicapped.
What handicap form we do have to work with is her run at Ascot in December. She travelled strongly into the race that day and looked like she was going to go on and win. However, the lack of a recent outing seemed to catch her out and she could only finish third, albeit beaten less than a length. The 1-2 that day Dance And Glance proved the performance was no fluke by finishing 1-2 the other way around the next day, franking the form nicely. She has been raised 4lb for that from 120 to 124 but I feel she could have tons more to come and I think the patience shown by Dan to sit on her until this race can now be rewarded.
What can we expect in terms of returns from these runners?
With quite limited options today, the prices are not as sexy as usual. However, only one of them is odds on today and the two 6/4 shots are actually second favourite in their races.
Whilst Mambonumberfive and L’Homme Presse both have odds on favourites to beat, I think both are certainly capable of causing an upset. Everybody will be hoping for an impressive showing from Lulamba and I think he can produce one at Newbury to cement his favourite position in the Arkle market. Finally, we are looking for some Skelton magic in the William Hill Hurdle to finish off our bet with a bang and nobody targets trains better.
At the prices quoted, even just the two shortest runners winning would see the majority of our stake returned. With three winners, we would see our stake over doubled. Of course, the dream is the full house, which would pay nearly 10x our stake despite no runner being greater than 5/2 here!
Take your pick from these bookie bonuses!
Below you will find a list of our recommended bookmaker partners and the
betting offers for horse racing
they are currently offering. As you will see, they can bring added value to your betting, and I strongly recommend you check them out!
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