Tony's Trends - Newbury, Saturday 16 July 2022 - Eyes on the Prize for The Weatherbys Super Sprint

Trends update

If you have had the chance to read my ‘Trends Extra’ piece which defines the Trends results over the last 38 episodes, then you’ll know that I finished it up by saying “live by the Trends, die by the Trends” and unfortunately last week’s Trends resulted in the latter.

The results of the Bunbury Cup last Saturday mean I must eat humble pie again. The Trends were well and truly busted, as the winner Bless Him (who I discarded right at the start based on the fact that he was aged eight years with an SP of 25/1) sailed home.

Unfortunately, neither of my selections looked like troubling the judge, even with best odds and extra places from William Hill, as the majority of the action was among those drawn low. The run by Rhoscolyn was really disappointing as I expected him to race closer to the pace, especially considering that last time out he had closed with purpose, to finish just behind the eventual runner up, Ropey Guest, at Royal Ascot.

After the race, his jockey reported the horse stopped quickly before trailing in last, so although he may have an excuse, it didn’t help our cause. Vafortino, who was also drawn high, also struggled to get involved at any point. Interestingly, four of the first five runners home came from Stall 6 or lower.

One key point that is worth making a note of, is that the prep Trend I identified which showed that 14 (now 15) previous winners had come via the Royal Hunt Cup. There were two runners from that race who lined up for the Bunbury, Bless Him, who won at 25/1 and the other, Cruyff Turn, who placed at 40/1.

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The Weatherbys Super Sprint, 5 furlongs, Saturday 16 July 2022

A bit of background

Our Trends race this week is The Weatherbys Super Sprint. This race was first run in 1991 and it was initially called the Newbury Sales Super Sprint Trophy. It was originally designed for horses sold as yearlings by public auction for less than a specified price. The concept was devised by Lord Carnarvon and Richard Hannon Snr. Not surprisingly, the Hannon’s have always targeted the race.

Weights are assigned in a different way to a Handicap. Instead, the weight carried by a horse in the Weatherbys Super Sprint is determined by its sale price, with one pound in weight being deducted for each £5,000 below the maximum value cap. As a result, horses with very good form can get in here with a very low weight, which makes this a very unusual and different race.

For the benefit of those who do not follow racing closely, in a Handicap, the runners with better form carry more weight in an attempt to ‘level-up’ the chances of all runners. In this race, form is not considered, merely the purchase price. So, in essence, those runners carrying a low weight may be talking horses and will not necessarily have delivered the goods on a racecourse.

Trends for The Weatherbys Super Sprint

Regular Trends followers will know that we look back to 1988 wherever possible, but it will be from 1991 for this one. As usual, we will establish the key Trends from data relating to the 30 previous winners in order to trim the field and try to find a winner.

Age

This race is confined to two-year-old horses only, so this is not a criterion that will help us this week.

Weight

All previous winners carried between 07-12 and 09-04 (Elhamri in 2006). Only three previous winners carried 09-00 or more to victory and so it pays to concentrate on those carrying between 08-01 and 08-11.

Odds

Looking at the odds, 21 of the 30 previous winners were sent off at prices of 10/1 or less, but that increases to 26 if we expand the range of SPs to 16/1 or less. It’s worth noting that we have seen some real shocks in this race, the biggest being the 100/1 Lady Livius who won in 2005.

There have also been three other winners priced between 20/1 and 28/1. The first of those was Jargelle in 2008 who had changed trainer. There was also Charles The Great in 2001 and Lathom in 2015, who both ran their prep race at Royal Ascot.

However, Favourites have won a third of the renewals, with Happy Romance being the last who went off at 100/30 in 2020.

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Other Trends

• As only a minute proportion of the previous winners had been allotted an OR at the time they contested the race, the OR will not assist us this week.
• All previous winners achieved an RPR of at least 60 but not more than 121. However, if we ignore the 100/1 outsider, then this increases to 71.
• Eleven of the previous winners were supplied by either Richard Hannon Snr. (x 7) or Richard Hannon Jnr. (x 4) with many of theirs also placing. No surprise there, considering their association with the race and how they target it as a result.
• Richard Fahey and Tim Easterby have also targetted the race and have supplied three winners each.
• 27 of the previous 30 winners had won over 5 furlongs, with two others winning over 6 furlongs. Only one Maiden won the race, the 100/1 outsider Lady Livius and that one had run over 6 furlongs during its prep.
• Winners have come from a wide variety of stalls, but the last 10 have come from Stall 10 or higher. With the going being Good to Firm, this bias is confirmed, with the exceptions of Stalls 1 to 3.
• No Claimer has ridden the winner and no winner has had a visor or any other extraneous equipment used.
• Of the 13 that used a Novice Stakes (x 5), Maiden Stakes (x 5), Nursery Handicaps (x 1) or Conditions Stakes (x 2) as prep, their finishes were first (x 11), second (x 1), fourth (x 1, over 6 furlongs)
• The 15 previous winners who ran at Royal Ascot had achieved a variety of places, but a place is not required (Coventry Stakes x 1, Norfolk Stakes x 4, Queen Mary Stakes x 6 or the Windsor Castle Stakes x 4).
• The remaining two previous winners (both Hannon trained) ran in the Cherry Hinton and Tattinger Champagne Stakes over 6 furlongs without placing

Trends review

In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse that either ran at Royal Ascot, or finished in the first two in another race, last time out.

I’m going to start by discounting any of those who are still a Maiden, which removes the following seven runners:

• Agostino
• Safari Dream
• Armour Propre
• Galore
• Woolhampton
• Asian Queen
• Desert Illusion

Next, I will eliminate any remaining runner who is drawn from Stall 4 to Stall 9:

• Union Court (his trainer fears he may be slow getting away and has worked on that aspect)
• Looking For Linda

Given that only three previous winners carried 09-00 or more to victory, with two of those carrying 09-00 or 09-01, I will eliminate any of the remaining runners who are set to carry more than that, so we’ll lose:

• Once More For Luck
• Miami Girl
• Swift Asset (who has been the subject of serious money this week)
• Eddie’s Boy

Finally, I’ll dismiss any remaining runner whose odds are too high, who did not run at Royal Ascot or has changed yards recently:

• Michaela’s Boy
• Run Cmc
• Clarentina

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Trends discussion

So, we have whittled the field down to five remaining qualifiers, which I will discuss individually in race card order.

Not For Profit is drawn in Stall 3, so he is already up against it based on the draw. He did well to win last time out, as the jockey did not need to use the whip much when stepping up on his first run. The race did not look strong on paper and while he won well, the quality of the horses he beat is debatable. That said, the yard’s horses are running well at present and elected jockey Tom Marquand is riding well, with a 16% strike rate. Ultimately though, Not For Profit is on the cusp of exclusion based on his price. As a result, he will not be selected, especially with the slight concern about the draw making this an easier decision.

Dare To Hope is drawn in Stall 19, which is a major positive and his form looks strong. He beat Rocket Rodney first time out, who was second in the Windsor Castle before winning at Sandown. He then ran second, just failing to give the winner 9lbs over 6 furlongs last time, but only going down by a short head.

In that race he was wide throughout, after not getting too much cover and having to concede 9lbs – a difficult task for any 2-year-old – but ran well in the circumstances. Oisin Orr takes the ride and is 12 from 21 to get a top four finish on all his 2-year-old rides. He has also ridden five winners in the past 14 days, so is clearly in form. The yard has also operated at a 13% strike rate over the past 14 days and are in above-average form for their strike rate. Dare To Hope is on the drift at the moment, priced between 14/1 and 20/1.

Maria Branwell is one of the Favourites here and based on her third in the Queen Mary, it’s easy to see why.  Her draw is decent and she has a 5lb pull over Miami Girl, who she beat last time out, even though she ran around a little due to greenness. That third place backed up her two wins and she is still on an upward curve heading into this race. She has beaten some of her rivals previously and there was nothing I saw when looking at those runs to suggest that they will be able to turn the tables this time around.

Rogue Spirit is the other market leader, but his prep run on the all-weather is unusual. His previous run when splitting Chateau and The Riddler reads very well, with both of them running so well at Royal Ascot. Giving Chateau 2lbs was more impressive than it appeared at the time, given how well it ran next time out as he was caught late on.

The Clover yard are very astute and when they back one of theirs then they generally collect. Jack Mitchell is riding very well at present and has a 36% strike rate over the past 14 days, achieving nine out of 25. Rogue Spirit has been drawn in Stall 18, which is yet another positive.

Land of Summer has seen its price being cut from 33/1 early in the week into 16/1, once declarations were made. It has been drawn in Stall 12 and won well first time out at Brighton, before just failing to concede 9lbs to Speriamo (who was ridden by Sean Levey, Hannon’s stable jockey, that day). The race it ran it at Royal Ascot, The Albany Stakes, has not supplied any of the previous winners.

I would also not read too much into Pat Dobbs not taking this ride, as it’s quite likely he couldn’t do the weight, but Hayley Turner has not been amongst the winners recently. So, while I respect the yard, the concern about the jockey is sufficient to remove Land Of Summer from consideration.

Trends Conclusion

With just three runners that I have not eliminated at this point, two of which are the joint Favourites, I will have to make a call between them, as I cannot in all good conscience put up two at under 5/1.

So, I’ll go with MARIA BRANWELL, who ran at Royal Ascot and was staying on at the finish, but there was so little to choose between them, I could just as easily have gone the other way. Given her odds this has to be a straight Win bet. If you follow the Trends, then you’ll know this is something I rarely do!

At more of a price, and as there are some bookies paying five places, I will give the Fahey runner, DARE TO HOPE, the nod. It is currently available at odds of 16/1, so I ‘hope’ that it gets the job done for us on Saturday.