Tony's Trends - Royal Ascot Day 3 - Will the Trends be on Target For The Britannia Handicap?

Trends news

Day 1 was a ‘nearly’ day for me, both for punting and the Trends, as we came close to a nice win but found one too good.

We saw the Day 1 selection, Bring On The Night, run well, only to get pipped by Coltrane, who had not won over 2 miles, but in fairness, had been in a battle over 2 miles, 2 furlongs at Chester. The saver also had a good run, but ran out of petrol in the final furlong, finishing well down the field.

I had a few ‘almost’ moments too. The notable one being in the last race, the Kensington Palace, where I had a 66/1 shot, having taken best odds at Ladbrokes. It ran well and placed, but it met more trouble in running than you’d expect in a 1 mile, 6 furlong race and it was repeatedly denied a clear run! Alright Sunshine is the one and I hope it will pop up later in the year.

Discord victories

For the Discord community Joe McCabe had a really excellent day, tipping up some outsiders who placed at 50/1 and 200/1, plus naming the winner of the Sprint. As I always mention, the Discord community is free to join and the team there share insights to help each other turn a profit.

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Royal Ascot Day 3

As we are now moving on to Day 3, I will not go over the track details again, but will remind you that I am using the 33 results since 1988, with the exception of 2005 when York hosted the meeting.

Having this amount of data means we can use the Trends that emerge to reduce the field before we start to look at their form. Using this methodology, we hope to find qualifiers that make us profit, assuming there has been no significant change in the profile of winners over the years.

The Britannia Handicap, 1 mile

There have been no major changes in the winner’s profile since 1988, so we have the full data set of 33 renewals to look at for The Britannia, excluding 2005, as mentioned. The Britannia is run on the Ascot straight mile, which as you may recall from earlier Trends, has a testing, uphill run in.

Age

This is a Handicap race for three-year-olds only, so this criterion will be of no benefit on this occasion.

Weight

As featherweights are no longer allowed, I will discount any racing weight that is not currently permitted. We will therefore focus on weights between 08-00 and 09-07, although the 21 winners since 2000 have carried between 08-03 and 09-07.

There is a preference for those carrying between 08-06 and 09-03, but I would only use this as part of the final selection criteria if two horses have a similar Trends profile.

Odds

Seventeen of the previous 33 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1, or less, with just six Favourites obliging. The last of those being Fast or Free in 2012. A further ten previous winners were sent off at odds between 11/1 and 20/1.

The last six previous winners were sent off at odds of 25/1 (x 2), 28/1 (x 2), 33/1 (x 1) and 100/1 (x 1, which was Fox Chapel back in 1990).

Other Trends

• The draw has not been a major deciding factor in the race, with winners coming from a mix of low and high draws. Stall 6 strangely enough has supplied six winners.
• Those who had achieved a Flat OR rating, were rated between 72 and 111, although the last 19 attained a rating of at least 80.
• Those who had achieved a Flat RPR rating, were rated between 47 and 105. However, removing an outlier (who had achieved a much higher OR as a two-year-old and ran on unsuitable ground) then we are looking at RPRs between 87 and 105.
• The last 13 winners attained an RPR rating of at least 90.
• No previous winner had more than twelve lifetime runs, with 31 of the 33 having ten or less. 23 had run between three and six times.
• Only Khaloosy in 2020 (for Roger Varian) was making a seasonal debut, with most having run between one and four times.
• Only three of the previous 33 winners had a run at Ascot prior to winning the race.
• There is no Trend vis-à-vis a preferred route trainers use to aim horses at this race.
• 27 of the previous 33 winners finished in the top three in their final prep race, the other six had run in a Group 1 (x 1), over a shorter trip (x 3), on unsuitable ground (x 1) or over a longer distance (x 1).

Trends review

In short, the trends indicate we are looking for an unexposed horse, who has already run well this season. For those interested in looking at the most profitable stall, then Dream Show (who just got in from the Hills’s yard) in Stall 6 could be worth a flutter!

I will firstly discount those runners who did not finish in the top three in their prep (or do not match the profile of the six who did not) namely:

• Power of Beauty
• Mr McCann
• Great Max
• Malex
• I’m A Gambler
• Oneforthegutter
• Saga
• Ribhi
• Claim The Crown
• Harrow
• Seb Maarib
• Oh Herbert Reigns
• Blenheim Boy
• Galiac
• City Runner

Next, I will remove any of the remaining runners who have run more than ten times, which takes out Lawful Command.

All the remaining runners meet the OR, RPR and weight Trends criteria.

I will therefore discount any runner whose odds are greater than 20/1:

• Barley
• Bolthole
• Kay Kay
• Spinaround
• Dream Show
• Thesis
• Kitsune Power

As always, discounting based on price, is fluid. Some of these runners may shorten, whilst others not discounted at the time of writing may lengthen and move between excluded and qualified.

Lastly, given the weak results of Favourites and considering none has obliged since 2012, I will also discount King of Time at this point.

Trends discussion

That leaves us with eight qualifiers, who we will review in race card order.

Whoputfiftyinyou won well last time (and perhaps should have been my selection for The Silver Bowl) beating Might Ulysses, with the pair of them pulling well clear of a decent field. I think he will be there, or thereabouts. However, as only two previous winners have carried over 09-03, I will regrettably have to pass him over yet again.

Fiach McHugh is an Irish raider who has been doing well this year. He won well last time in a hot Handicap at the Curragh, but my concern here is that the ground will be just that much faster than he has encountered before. He is currently borderline at 20/1 and due to ground concerns, I think he’ll drift, so I will discount him at this stage.

Tranquil Night beat Outgate last time, who in turn was five lengths behind Whoputfiftyinyou, but conceding 4lbs less that day. At the revised weights, he has the beating of the Cox runner and is definitely one who should be in the shake-up. While he has not run on ground this fast, his sire did well on it, so I’m willing to take his ability to handle the going on that basis.

Amortentia won last time out, beating Cowboy Justice, who was subsequently slammed by Outgate in receipt of 7lbs. On a line through Outgate, I think he will end up behind both Whoputfiftyinyou and Tranquil Night. He is also another who will not have met such fast ground before and his jockey has only had two previous rides at Ascot, so I’ll pass on him too.

Yanafis is from the Haggas yard, who enjoy bringing them on slowly. On his seasonal reappearance, the race was run without early pace, resulting in a bunch finish, which may be a good thing as the Handicapper was unable to raise him too much.

Atrium won well over course and distance last time out, but that was a lower grade affair than this and his form looks average to this point. Additionally, just three previous winners had run at Ascot before this race and this one has run at the course twice, so on that basis I will remove him.

Wanees, who won for the Discord community (he was a Ginger Joe NAP last time out) has also run at Ascot before. Although he was impressive in his last race, I feel he may encounter traffic problems in this large field, given his running style. So, with a heavy heart I’ll have to pass on him as well.

Jimi Hendrix, from the Beckett yard, is the last one we need to consider. He is 16/1 in places and not more than 20/1 generally, so he is right on the cusp. He beat a Haggas hotpot, Thunder Legend, last time out by a length, coming from well off the pace to win late on. However, Thunder Legend was beaten by Outgate when getting 9lbs. His jockey that dau was Jim Crowley, who will not be on board today. So, based on the form line through Outgate, I think there are others with stronger claims, so I will have to discount him.

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The Britannia Handicap Trends conclusion

I think this race will come down to a battle between a number of horses, but my two against the field are Tranquil Night (9/1) and Yanafis (14/1). Both are decent prices and with the extra places on offer, both present excellent chances of getting us a return.