What happened in The London Cup last week?
Unfortunately, whilst well supported and backed when I wrote last week’s article (from 10/1 down to 9/2, based on
best odds from Ladbrokes)
Red Vineyard
failed to win or even place, which was a huge disappointment, as he had proven his stamina.
Although he was taken on for the lead, he was out of contention too far out for this to be a true gauge of his running. The horse was found to be lame after the race, which explains his poor run, but that does not alter the lack of any benefit to our pockets!
The winner,
Israr, was one who also qualified on the Trends and managed to overcome the high draw, which had put me off making him the selection.
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Trends results update
I have also reviewed how we have progressed since we started the Trends. Over the first 25 Trends episodes, we have made a decent profit to level stakes. If you had bet £1 EW on every selection and followed the advice to use the best odds and offers available, then you would have made £44 profit. That’s really not too shabby when you consider we had a few races where the Trends were smashed.
Bearing in mind that I have also chosen the wrong horse from the qualifiers in a few races, going with the alternative selection would have resulted in an even more profitable outcome. However, as with all betting strategies, the expectation is not to win every week, but over time.
The aim is always to take more from the bookies than we give them and I hope you can see how the Trends help us make this possible.
The lowdown on this weekend
In Ireland this weekend we will see Native Trail attempt to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. From a Trends perspective, he is the most likely winner, but he is also much too short for me to consider putting up at his current price of 4/11.
There have been shocks in this race for the last three of the last four years, so it may pay to look for a local outsider to get some value in the race. But with so few runners, that is not an appealing strategy for me either, so I will stick with watching the race but not punting on it.
Unfortunately, racing in the UK has cut up badly ahead of the weekend. There is only the York Handicap with a decent number of runners, but that race has no historical data to work with. As a result, I’ll look to Haydock and an alternative three-year-old Handicap to see if we can find a selection.
The Silver Bowl, 14.35 Haydock
Unlike the London Cup last weekend, the Silver Bowl has been running since 1988, so we have a decent data set to review and help us find our selection.
Age
This is a race confined to three-year-olds horses only, so this criterion will not help us whittle the runners down.
Weight
The previous 33 winners have carried a variety of weights between 08-02 and 09-07. Eighteen of the last 20 winners carried 09-02 or less, when taking their jockey’s Claim into account. One of the remaining two,
Tobosa, carried 9-07, but had run in the 2000 Guineas. Both horses had run six times or more.
Odds
The Silver Bowl fields have not been large, with around 10 to 15 runners generally lining up. Looking at all 33 renewals, 31 horses winners went off with an SP of 12/1 or less and eight Favourites have obliged.
Other trends
- All previous winners with an OR allotted were rated at least 79.
- Only
Tobosa
was rated over 100, with the remainder being rated 97 or less.
- All previous winners achieved an RPR of at least 84, but not more than 104.
- 28 of the winners had between three and six lifetime runs.
- 32 out of 33 winners had made their seasonal debut.
- All 32 of those who ran that season did so within 35 days of this race.
Trends review
In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse who has not been over-raced and has the ability to see out the distance.
I will start by discounting the runners with odds that are greater than 14/1. The ideal is 12/1, but there is the chance some will drift out, while others will inevitably shorten, so bear in mind that this is a fluid selection criterion. This excludes:
I will also discount any horse that has had more than six lifetime runs, or not has not run within 40 days of the race:
Discussion
We now have five qualifying runners left, who I will review individually. They are in race card order, not order of preference. All odds quoted are at the time of writing.
Mighty Ulysses
is the short-priced Favourite and would have been discounted but for his jockey’s Claim. De La Sayette is well worth his Claim and is definitely a stylish jockey who should be followed. He also has a whopping 26% strike rate at present. My concern is that the horse is borderline on multiple Trends and is too short-priced at 11/8 to make him a selection.
Dirtyoldtown
changed stables over the winter and ran well behind
Spirit Catcher
on his reappearance. He gets 2lbs for that half-length beating and could progress again. However, my concern here is that the yard is not firing at present and have not had a winner in over three weeks, so I will pass him over this time around. He is also drifting out from 10/1 already and if that continues, he could easily be discounted on SP as well.
Spirit Catcher
is from the Mark Johnston team. He was a little too free last time when making the pace, but could do well for a yard that has supplied three previous winners of this race. He’s the right price at 12/1 and he may well go close, but is in danger of setting the race up for a finisher if he fails to settle properly.
Tollard Royal
represents the in-form Boughey camp and won his last race decisively from the front. He flopped at Chelmsford over a mile last October when heavily fancied, but given that is a unique surface, that run can be excused. The key factor to help me chose this horse over the other possible qualifiers is the strike rate of the trainer and jockey when they team up. Five wins and a second place have been achieved from their last seven races in fact. His current price of 10/1 bodes well too.
Whoputfiftyinyou
is undefeated at this point and is another who has run well this year. The fact that David Probert (who does not ride for the yard too often) has been booked is a definite plus. He is weighted to run well, but the Boughey yard have a good line on him with their runner,
My Little Tip, who he beat by three lengths when getting 9lbs. He is weighted to be around
Outgate
based on their runs against that yardstick. Given the doubts as to whether he will beat a horse I’ve already discounted on Trends and despite being priced at 10/1, I’ll pass him over too.
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Trends conclusion
There is a decent data set which has helped us to prune the field for this year’s renewal of The Silver Bowl and as I mentioned above, the strike rate when Boughey and Curtis team up is just another Trend to augment.
With all facts considered and in-keeping with the Trends criteria,
Tollard Road
is an easy selection to make.
Finally
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