Trends news
Last week’s race, The Northumberland Plate, was an exciting one with a nail-biting finish. I must admit that a furlong out, I thought we would click, but
Trueshan
outran and outstayed
Spirit Mixer. So, for two Saturdays in a row we’ve seen the Trends busted by a horse that carried too much weight.
To give credit where it’s due, the performance put up by
Trueshan
has to be acknowledged, His trainer, Alan King, was hoping for a place in the top six at best, but Hollie Doyle and
Trueshan
had other ideas. He performed to a Racing Post Rating of 128, which is the highest achieved by a stayer in the last decade and the best achieved in a British or Irish Handicap in RPR history.
Given how he blew up the Trends, I feel fortunate that my Trends selections still made a profit.
Spirit Mixer
came second at 10/1 and
Rajinsky
finished fourth at 8/1. With
extra places at Bet365, Trends followers achieved a return on both.
Trends correction
I’d also like to thank the person who spotted a small error in the profit and loss statement I made last week. At Cheltenham, BOG applied and while I had
Swinging London
included at odds of 50/1, it was pointed out that with BOG, it should have been calculated as 80/1.
A rather nice correction for me to make, as it increases the kitty (but doesn’t alter the other stats) as does the return from last weekend. This gives us a profit of just over £100 per £1 EW stake and a ROI of 77.4%. Let’s hope the results over the remaining six months of 2022 are just as rewarding.
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The Old Newton Cup Handicap, 1 Mile, 4 Furlongs - Haydock 15.15
Our Trends race this week is the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. The track is a mostly flat, left-handed oval, of around 1 mile 5 furlongs. There is a slight rise on the run-in which is quite lengthy at four and a half furlongs, so stamina is a must to see out the distance.
As usual, I’ll look back to 1988 and review the 34 previous winners to help find our Trends selections.
Age
The previous 34 winners were aged 3 years (x1,
Libk
in 1991), 4 years (x19), 5 years (x7), 6 years (x6) and 7 years (x1,
Halicarnassus
in 2011).
Weight
All previous winners carried between 07-10 and 10-00 (Key To My Heart
in 1996). Over the last 20 renewals, 18 out of 20 winners were carrying between 08-08 and 09-10, so it pays to confine our search within those boundaries.
Odds
31 of the 34 previous winners were sent off at odds of 16/1 or less. Given the superiority of those at the head of the market, it is surprising that just three Favourites have won:
Matador
in 1992,
Mad Rush
in 2008 and
Red Merlin
in 2009.
Other Trends
- Since 2000, all previous winners who were allotted an OR were rated at least 76, but not more than 110.
- The last 15 winners were rated between 85 and 110.
- Since 2000, all previous winners achieved an RPR of at least 82, but not more than 110.
- The last 19 horses who won the race, had all achieved a minimum RPR of 94.
- Since 2002, all winners achieved a top five placing in their prep run.
- The majority of previous winners had run in a Class 2 or Class 3 Handicap as their final prep race. Just
Dylan Mouth, in 2017, ran in Listed company.
- All previous winners had run within 62 days of the race.
- Winners have come from a wide variety of stalls, indicating that pace is more important than position.
- No Claiming jockey has ever ridden the winner of this race.
Seven previous winners ran in the Duke of Edinburgh and a further four ran in the Bessborough as their preparation run. However, those are facts I will address within the final selection criterion, rather than for the purposes of exclusion.
Trends review
In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse aged from four to six years, who is fancied in the market, but is not the Favourite.
I will firstly discount those runners who are likely to start at odds greater than 16/1:
- Raymond Tusk
(also too old)
- Morando
(also too old)
- On To Victory
(also too old)
- Its Good To Laugh
- Torcello
(also too old)
- Love Is Golden
- Ravenscraig Castle
However, I will not remove the reserve horse,
Vindolanda, at this point. His price could be artificially inflated because he is not guaranteed a run.
Given the poor record of Favourites in this race (including some very short priced ones) I must remove the undefeated
Gaassee. This is a potential blot, but at his current price of 6/4, I would look elsewhere for value in such a big field, whether he is qualified or not.
I will now discount any of the remaining runners who do not meet the weight, OR or RPR requirements:
- Fancy Man
(weight just too high and been off too long)
- Secret Shadow
(RPR too low)
- Vindolanda
(RPR too low)
Next, I will exclude any of the remaining runners who will be partnered by a Claimer, or who have not run in at least a Class 3 Handicap:
- Brentford Hope
(Claimer)
- Enfranchise
(Claimer)
- Liverpool Knight
(Class 4 handicap as prep)
Discussion
That leaves us with just four qualifying horses, who I will discuss individually.
Get Shirty
has been really impressive this year, winning three of his last four races, including the Copper House Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has won previously over this distance and is one to consider. He is ground-versatile and was in the lead over two furlongs out at Ascot. He showed a decent turn of foot to get there, overcame some trouble in running and showed sufficient stamina to hold on.
Trawlerman
was heavily backed to take the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes last time, but he blew his chances at the start. With a better start, he may well have placed in that race, as he was not knocked around when it was obvious his chance was gone. It is unlikely in hindsight that he would have troubled
Candleford, but it could have been in the shakeup and he is feared here.
***LATE UPDATE – TRAWLERMAN IS A NON-RUNNER***
Inchicore
won at Goodwood last time out, beating a few who reoppose here and is not guaranteed to confirm those placings, given how tight it was. His current odds are right on the cusp at 16/1, so I would prefer to look at others who are 14/1, or less. I’m also concerned about the drop back in distance, which suggests he could be tapped for toe over this shorter trip and against classier rivals.
Something Enticing
was no match for
Third Realm
last time out in a Listed race. Not many have used Listed races as their prep and she is also at her best with more give in the ground, so the recent rain will definitely play to her strengths. She looks like a potential improver and her price is shortening.
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Trends conclusion
In the absence of
Trawlerman, who has now been declared a non-runner, we are left with just one qualifying horse, meaning that
Get Shirty
@ 10/1 becomes my main selection.
I’m also putting up
Something Enticing
as a second choice, but as her odds are fluctuating by the minute, make sure you check for yourself ahead of the race.
Just a reminder
Remember, I look at the Trends to select winners, not placed runners, although I always try to find some value odds candidates for you to consider and always highlight using extra places whenever they are available.
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