4 Horses to follow at Ascot
Ascot provides a cracking stage for today’s action, with a high-quality card that blends informative Graduation Chases, a Grade 1 staying hurdle and some fiercely competitive handicaps where proven course form is often the key. Several of the leading players look to be using these races as stepping stones towards bigger spring targets, which makes race fitness, current marks and intent just as important as raw ability when assessing the form. It’s a day where taking on short-priced favourites can be justified, particularly when some runners may still be building towards peak condition, while others are clearly primed to strike now.
The Graduation Chase in particular throws up an interesting clash between established talent and those with long-term aims such as the Grand National, while the Long Walk Hurdle will once again tests stamina at the highest level. Later on the card, Ascot’s demanding nature comes to the fore in two deep handicaps where previous course form, proven effectiveness on soft ground and well-judged preparation could make all the difference.
With conditions likely to place a premium on jumping and staying power, I’ve focused on runners who are either proven at Ascot or appear well treated by the handicapper at this stage of the season. Below are my selections for each race, highlighting where I see the strongest win claims and the most appealing each-way value.
Firefox is the one to beat.
12:40 2m5f Howden Graduation Chase
Firefox looks the one to follow here and, for me, sets the standard in this Graduation Chase. As much as I like Iroko, it’s hard to escape the feeling that his entire season is geared around another crack at the Grand National, following his excellent fourth at Aintree last spring. With that in mind, these runs are clearly being used to build experience, confidence and fitness, while also trying to protect his handicap mark as much as possible ahead of his main target. The same logic can be applied to James Du Berlais, who also appears to have bigger and more important assignments later in the season and may not be fully tuned up for a race like this.
Firefox, by contrast, looks to be very much here to do a job. He made an immediate impact on his reappearance by landing a Grade 2 at Down Royal, showing a high level of fitness and plenty of class. That performance suggested he has returned at least as good as ever, and arguably with further improvement still to come. He travelled strongly throughout, jumped accurately and found plenty when asked, all qualities that will be crucial around a demanding track like Ascot.
With Sean Bowen booked, there is added confidence that connections mean business, and tactically this race should suit him well. While Graduation Chases can be frustrating, and I’m not entirely sold on the structure that allows horses like Iroko to compete in them, it is what it is. On form, fitness and intent, Firefox stands out as the clear pick. With a clean round of jumping, he should prove very hard to beat and looks the most likely winner.
Horse to follow: Firefox
Odds: 8/11 with BetMGM
Chance give to Crambo for the hattrick
2:25 3m½f Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)
Honest Policy is likely to be well supported in the market after finishing second to Jasmin De Vaux when last seen in April. However, I’m happy to take him on here, as he may well need the run after his absence.
Impose Toi is an obvious danger. Now two from two over three miles, the step up in trip has brought about significant improvement. He won with plenty in hand on his reappearance at Aintree before seeing off Strong Leader last time in a steadily run race while receiving 5lb. He continues to progress with each run and could easily go in again, but I’m inclined to look elsewhere at an each-way price against the top of the market.
That brings me to Crambo, who I’m prepared to give one last chance after running no race at all on his seasonal return. He has won this race the last two years and looks good value each way. Now eight, he may simply have needed that reappearance run. He’s back up to three miles, conditions should suit, and with a run under his belt, he can certainly make his presence felt.
Horse to follow: Crambo
Odds: 10/1 each way
One Last Big Chance for Threeunderthrufive
3:00 3m Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap
I know what you’re thinking, how are we backing this horse after last time? Here’s why. Firstly, his Ascot form reads 1-3-2, with that win coming off a mark of 152, which is 2lb higher than Saturday’s mark of 150. He beat Victorino by four lengths that day and even idled towards the finish. The third was in this race last year off a mark of 155, in fairness, Victorino beat him off 143, but Threeunderthrufive is 8lb better off here for that form. The second he was also beaten by Victorino, but only by a nose, and again we are 3lb better off with him on Saturday for that.
All in all, his Ascot form is solid and off a mark of 150 he can certainly be competitive. With Ga Law in the race, he doesn’t have to shoulder top weight of 12st, which is another positive. Ground-wise, he’s won on soft and good to soft, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue if the rain gets into the ground. He’s also now second run after a wind operation, which he had prior to the Badger Beer.
The hope is that he takes a big step forward from that run. He’s 10 years old now, and I’m hoping Paul Nicholls has had this race in mind, using the Badger Beer as a prep. Watching that back, he looked like he really needed the run, and trying to go with the lightweight Gustavian took its toll, with his jumping falling apart. He might be a bit of a mini cliff horse, but he goes well around here, is on a good mark, the ground holds no fears, and this could be his last chance to land a big pot. Hopefully he goes close, and hopefully he can win.
Paul Nicholls had Isaac Des Obeaux win yesterday second run off a wind op so hopefully thats a good omen for Threeunderthrufive tomorrow.
Horse to follow: Threeunderthrufive
Odds: 12/1 each way 4 places.
Fiercely Proud to go back to back.
3:35 1m7½f Ascot Rotary Club Festive Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap
Fiercely Proud won this race last season off a mark 7lb lower and, while he is higher in the ratings this time, I still think there is enough for him to run a big race. He beat Kabral Du Mathan last year, who has since gone on to be rated 154 , 23lb higher than his rating at the time, and he also had Be Aware back in third, who has similarly progressed to a much higher mark. On that form, there looks to be some wiggle room for Fiercely Proud off 135.
After that win last year he was pulled up twice, before making his reappearance in the Greatwood again where he was beaten 13 lengths by Alexei. Alexei had already had a run going into the Greatwood and now meets Fiercely Proud on 14lb worse terms, having won again since. Alexei is clearly a big improver, but to win this off top weight he would need to be a proper graded performer, which he may well be. On those terms, this looks a no-brainer for an each-way play. Fiercely Proud also meets Helnwein on 5lb better terms from the Greatwood.
Willful and Mondo Man are obvious dangers. Willful looks well treated on his Welsh Champion Hurdle form, but I’m not filled with confidence in Jonjo O’Neill at the moment. Mondo Man appeared to settle better on his reappearance, but even so, the way he was beaten doesn’t tempt me to take him as favourite. Overall, there looks to be enough here to take a chance on the Ben Pauling runner, and with four places on offer, I’m hopeful he can hit the frame.
A small mention as well for Love Conti who is a horse I really like, making his reappearance here. I'd be watching him in the betting closely to see if support arrives but he'd be one for me to have a nice intro back into it here before being aimed at something later on, he could be extremely competitive in a big handicap off a marl of 143 with fitness on his side.
Horse to follow: Fiercely Proud
Odds: 8/1 each way 4 places
Overall, this looks a card where patience and selectivity are key. With several runners clearly being aimed at bigger prizes later in the season, siding with horses who arrive fit, well treated and with proven Ascot form feels the sensible approach. There are strong cases for each of the selections to run big races, whether it’s a progressive type still on the upgrade or a seasoned performer given one last opportunity to strike from a workable mark. If the jumping holds up and conditions fall kindly, there’s every chance we see a few of these angles pay off. As ever at Ascot, it’s a track that rewards bravery, stamina and accuracy, and hopefully today’s races provide both a good spectacle and a profitable afternoon.
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