Betfair Chase Day at Haydock
The first Grade 1 for staying chasers on the calendar and its always a brilliant days race and one I cant wait to watch. There are plenty of betting opportunities on this day and here are my horses to follow.
Gentleman Bill Poised for Breakthrough in Haydock Handicap Chase
12:40 Haydock - 2m½f (2m67y), Bet At Your Best With Betfair Handicap Chase
The first race of the weekend Id like to cover brings a strong betting opportunity in the form of Gentleman Bill, a horse who has long been close to my heart and who looks primed to make a real impact in this 0–130 handicap chase.
Previously a bumper winner and a dual hurdles scorer for the Greenall & Guerriero team, Gentleman Bill ended his novice hurdling campaign on a mark of 123. After a summer break, he returned in excellent order and made his chasing debut at Aintree 27 days ago under Charlie Todd. The ground that day was certainly livelier than ideal, yet he jumped fluently and produced a highly encouraging first effort over fences. Tomorrow’s assignment at Haydock should play perfectly to his strengths. The track’s long, galloping nature combined with ground on the softer side of good looks tailor-made for him. He faces a field containing older rivals and several returning from lengthy absences, making this a very winnable contest. A further positive is the return of Craig Nichol from injury, who takes the ride and brings valuable experience alongside a strong rapport with the yard. Gentleman Bill, already a point-to-point winner, is expected to progress again now tackling fences for the second time. While he may ultimately prove even better over further, this two-mile trip looks an ideal stepping stone at this stage of his chasing career.
Verdict: Confident selection. Gentleman Bill appears well ahead of his current mark of 123 and has an excellent opportunity to open his chasing account in a highly suitable race.
Horse to follow: Gentleman Bill
Odds: 3/1 with BetMGM
Iroko Back for Redemption in Competitive Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase
1:50 Haydock - 2m5½f (2m5f127y), Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase
This year’s renewal of the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase is a fascinating contest, steeped in history and dominated in recent times by Paul Nicholls, who has won six of the last ten editions with names such as Bravemansgame and Clan Des Obeaux. Nicholls sends Knappers Hill this time, but with the gelding returning from a mammoth 742-day absence, it would require a monumental effort for him to win a race of this nature on reappearance.
The market is headed by The Jukebox Man, originally expected to take up an engagement at Ascot, but connections have opted for what appears the more suitable opportunity at Haydock. A top-class novice chaser last season, he won both starts, including a Grade 1, before injury halted his campaign. Proven on soft ground and with conditions looking ideal, he will take plenty of beating if fully tuned up for his seasonal return.
Yet the horse who I think I prefer here more is Iroko, a runner I hold in the highest regard. He was narrowly denied in this race last season, finishing second by half a length, before going on to run consistently all year and eventually finishing a superb fourth in the Grand National. The question for connections this will be balancing the need for further experience with protecting his handicap mark ahead of another spring campaign. This race fits that plan beautifully. The ground will be perfect for him, and crucially he receives weight from both The Jukebox Man and Knappers Hill. Even if he were to win, the handicapper is unlikely to penalise him severely given the race conditions, making this an ideal target once again. At the current prices, and with potentially testing ground bringing stamina into play, he looks the value selection.
Verdict: While The Jukebox Man may well prove a class act at odds-on, Iroko appeals strongly at the weights and in the expected conditions. He is the selection as he embarks on another campaign aimed firmly toward Aintree in the spring.
Horse to follow: Iroko
Odds: 5/2 with BetMGM
Ace Of Spades and Pearls the Value Play in Deep and Demanding Stayers’ Handicap
2:25 Haydock - 3m½f (3m58y), Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
This year’s renewal of the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle looks fiercely competitive, a proper stamina test over Haydock’s gruelling 3m½f. Last season’s victor, Shoot First, showed just how tough a horse must be to get home in these conditions, and once again this promises to be a war of attrition.
The favourite, Ma Shantou, arrives 9lb higher after winning a Pertemps Qualifier at Cheltenham. He’s a progressive horse, but under softer ground and over this extreme trip, he looks one to oppose at the current prices. Hartington, running off a low weight with Sean Bowen booked, is of interest. He comes here after defeating Florida Dreams over 2m4f and shapes as though the extra distance could unlock further improvement. Whether he has enough to win is questionable, but he certainly appeals as a place contender.
My initial focus was on the Dan Skelton pair, Joyeux Machin and Ace Of Spades. Joyeux Machin looks a big player stepping back up in trip after a quiet return over shorter. A recent wind operation should help, and the booking of Harry Atkins, claiming a valuable 7lb strengthens his claims. He’s guaranteed to stay, handles the ground, and should be competitive. However, the one I’m siding with is Ace Of Spades. Harry Skelton’s decision to ride him is very telling. Running off just 10st 13lb, he arrives on the back of an impressive reappearance win at Aintree in October, where he shaped like a horse crying out for a return to this longer trip. The Skelton yard’s runners generally improve for their first outing, and we’ve already seen several of theirs string wins together this season. Ace Of Spades has the profile to be another.
Another horse to keep firmly onside is Horaces Pearl from the Fergal O’Brien team. He arrives fresh, something that has proven to be a major positive for him, having won after breaks of 97, 224, 154, and 209 days. Proven on soft ground and with solid form at listed level over 3 miles, he looks more than capable at this grade. Tom Broughton takes a handy 5lb off, adding further appeal.
Verdict: Ace Of Spades is the main selection in a deep and demanding contest, with his low weight, upward trajectory, and suitability for the trip making him the standout. Horaces Pearl is another to keep onside at rewarding odds.
Horse to follow: Ace Of Spades and Horaces Pearl
Odds: 13/2 and 7/1 with BetMGM
Haiti Couleurs Backed to Outstay Rivals in Testing Betfair Chase
3:00 Haydock - 3m1½f (3m1f125y), Betfair Chase (Grade 1)
This year’s Betfair Chase looks to revolve around the top two in the market, Haiti Couleurs and Grey Dawning. Haiti Couleurs returned to hurdles last time and bounced straight back to winning form, landing the Pertemps Qualifier impressively off a mark of 145 and staying on powerfully under Sean Bowen. Trainer Rebecca Curtis indicated the Grade 1 Betfair Chase was under strong consideration, and his presence here is a welcome confirmation of that intention. The track, trip, and forecast conditions, officially good to soft, soft in places, should be fine for him. He was advised as a 7/2 ante-post selection in an earlier piece of mine, and with significant rain due on Saturday morning, Haydock could turn very testing very quickly. For Haiti Couleurs, the softer the better, so confidence remains high.
Turning to the favourite, Grey Dawning, he is extremely short in the market as of writing. The key question is whether he can go one better this season after being undone by the conditions in this race last year. While the ground is currently manageable, the expected rain could shift the balance once again. Team Skelton will have him fully tuned for an early-season Grade 1, but from a betting perspective, especially with potentially deteriorating ground, he’s too short to side with at current odds. I’m more than happy to let him win at the price while keeping faith with my ante-post position on Haiti Couleurs.
As for Handstands, the question is whether he can progress enough to land a race of this calibre. A Grade 1 and Grade 2 winning novice last season, mostly over shorter trips, he did come unstuck over 3m1f in the Mildmay at Aintree, though that run is easily forgiven. Beaten on his seasonal return, he did improve markedly from first to second run last year, and he’ll certainly handle the ground. The concern is whether he truly stays three miles at Grade 1 level. Haiti Couleurs looks the stronger stayer at this stage, so Handstands is reluctantly passed over. I can’t have Royale Pagaille regaining the crown at eleven years old, and Stellar Story has not quite built on his Albert Bartlett victory since entering open company. Both are readily overlooked.
Verdict: Grey Dawning is simply too short in the market, especially with conditions likely to turn tough. Haiti Couleurs shapes like the stayer to be with if the rain arrives and Haydock becomes the stamina test it so often does.
Horse to follow: Haiti Couleurs
Odds: 3/1 with BetMGM
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