4 Horses to follow at Cheltenham on Saturday
Vincenzo and Hoe Joly Smoke the Ones to Beat in a Strong Saturday Handicap
1:50 2m4½f (New) Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
I’m siding with Vincenzo here for the Sam Thomas and Dylan Johnston team, and the more I look at the race, the more confident I become that he’s the one to be with. His second-place finish in the Paddy Power Gold Cup was an excellent effort, especially when you consider the calibre of the horse who beat him. He was only denied by the vastly improved Panic Attack, who has since come out and won the Coral Gold Cup, confirming herself as one of the season’s big improvers off a mark of 147. That result alone gives Vincenzo’s run serious substance.
Importantly, Vincenzo had to give Panic Attack 2lbs that day, which makes the form look even stronger in hindsight. Despite that, he now lines up here off 5lbs higher himself without Dylans claim, a very manageable rise considering the strength of the race he contested last time. With that outing under his belt, he should strip fitter and sharper, and I fully expect him to step forward again. He has always hinted that there is more to come from him over fences, and this looks like the perfect opportunity to go one better.
As much as I like Jagwar, and I really do, he’s not a horse I want to be with first time out. There’s no doubt there is improvement in him, and he is capable of taking a nice step forward this season, but I suspect that progression will come once he has some racing in him. He’s a high-potential type, but this is a deep enough race to be asking him to win on his reappearance, and fitness could easily be the deciding factor even with the extra few weeks work after skipping the Paddy Power.
Vincenzo, by contrast, already has a very solid foundation of form from just five runs over fences. He’s consistent, he jumps well, and he’s proven in competitive big-field handicaps, an important trait for races of this nature. He also has that crucial fitness edge over the favourite, which can often be worth far more than the couple of pounds separating them on ratings.
The other horse I want onside here is Hoe Joly Smoke who poses a real threat for the Skelton team. He ran a good race behind Vincenzo in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and has looked the type to keep improving. The Skeltons have dominated many of the big handicaps so far this season, and dismissing one of theirs is always dangerous. He's 5lbs better off at the weights with Vincenzo this time, and he was ridden with what looked like experience in mind and noe Harry Skelton jumps back on him you just know he'll be bang there.
Taking everything into account, the upward trajectory, the strong form lines and the benefit of race fitness Vincenzo looks the most solid option in the race. He has already shown he belongs at this level, and with natural progression expected, I think he can take another step forward and land this. For me, he’s the one to be on and I dont mind having two onside for a big Saturday handicap so Hoe Joly Smoke makes the team as well. Both have huge chances.
Horse to follow: Vincenzo and Hoe Joly Smoke
Odds: 4/1 and 9/2
Excelero Primed to Strike as the Progressive Chaser on the Rise
2:25 2m½f (New) Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap Chase
I’m sticking with an improver in this race and siding with Excelero for Jane Williams, a horse who looks to be progressing with every run and who still has plenty of untapped potential. He has had just the two chase starts so far, but both have offered strong encouragement, and the more you dig into his form, the more he appeals.
His chasing debut came at Worcester, where he finished fourth behind Wade Out and Wendigo. That form has worked out superbly. Excelero travelled well through the race and moved comfortably with Wendigo, who is now rated 147 and has since gone on to win a Grade 2 before understandably getting tired after the second last. Wade Out, who picked them all up that day from a seemingly impossible position, has also franked the form by winning again. When you have two subsequent winners of that quality coming out of the same novice chase, you can be confident the race was far stronger than it looked on paper.
Excelero then went to Warwick for a small-field novice chase, and he absolutely bolted up. What really impressed me was his jumping, clean, confident, and quick over his fences, which at Warwick is half the battle. The course is known as a tough jumping test, especially for novices, yet he passed with flying colours. He put clear daylight between himself and the other two runners, Spirits Bay and Mister Cessna, and the performance earned him a 7lb rise. For me, that rise is entirely fair and still leaves him on a very workable mark.
He now steps up in grade, but crucially he does so carrying just 10st 3lbs, a lovely racing weight, especially in these conditions. Off that mark, and with the way he’s progressing, he’s got a major chance of taking another step forward.
The race does feature some smart opposition. JPR One carries top weight here, and we receive nearly two stone from him, which is a huge advantage. He worried me with his Exeter performance earlier in the season he looked a bit laboured, but he did take a step forward at Ascot. Even so, giving away that much weight leaves him vulnerable, and I think he’s there to be taken on.
The favourite for Chris Gordon is another improver, now effectively 9lbs higher for his latest win with the rise and no claim from Freddie, though he does gain the services of Harry Cobden. He’s three from three over fences and is the most obvious danger, but I’m still inclined to oppose him at the prices.
As for the rest, they’re easier to overlook. Country Mile is a horse I like, but he disappointed last time and may be being aimed at something else. Triple Trade, a nine-year-old up 5lbs for a narrow win, looks opposable too.
For me, it comes down to the top two in the market, and with the way Excelero jumped at Warwick, I’m convinced he can keep improving and take this. He’s the one I’m with.
Horse to follow: Excelero
Odds: 7/2
Conman John Set to Strengthen His Albert Bartlett Credentials
3:00 3m (New) Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Bristol Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2)
This race marks the next run of Conman John, a horse who is shaping more and more like a genuine Albert Bartlett contender, and he’s the one I’m firmly siding with for tomorrow’s assignment. Unbeaten in two starts over hurdles, he has already shown himself to be an out-and-out stayer with a willing, grinding style that is perfectly suited to these longer-distance novice events. Everything about him suggests that stamina is his strongest trait, and races of this nature tend to reward that attribute above all else.
His form is also beginning to look increasingly solid. The horse he beat on hurdles debut, Great Fleet, has come out and won since, which gives that line of form a nice bit of substance. Likewise, Kasino Des Mottes, who was also behind him, has boosted the form as well, further strengthening the case that Conman John is progressing really well. When the horses you’ve dismissed go on to win, it usually means you’re dealing with a proper one, and Conman John fits that profile confidently.
He does have to concede 3lbs to the entire field here, but I don’t see that being a major concern. The way he travels, coupled with the way he finishes his races, suggests he’s already operating at, or very close to, Grade 1 novice level. In the UK staying novice division, he looks the standout type, and while there will be challenges ahead, his ceiling seems higher than most. This next step in deeper waters should tell us even more, but nothing he has shown so far suggests he will be anything other than competitive at the top table.
One thing I particularly like is that he already has Cheltenham experience, even if it came on the Old Course rather than the New. That familiarity with the track, its undulations and its atmosphere can prove invaluable when returning for the Festival, especially in a gruelling race like the Albert Bartlett, which is run on the more stamina-demanding New Course. If he handles tomorrow’s task with the same assurance he has shown to date, he will cement himself as a leading British hope for that race at this point.
Overall, I see no compelling reason to desert him now. With his profile, progression, and the strong form behind him, Conman John looks every inch a top staying novice for Lucinda Russell, and if he continues on this trajectory, he’ll head to the Cheltenham Festival with a major chance.
Horse to follow: Conman John
Odds: 5/4
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