Newcastle dress-rehearsal: what to expect tomorrow
Tomorrow at Newcastle Racecourse the champion hurdle season really kicks off in style with the 2025 running of the BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle, the first Grade 1 over hurdles of the British National Hunt season, and potentially the most anticipated early-winter test for two-mile hurdlers that's we've had in a long time.
In the article I will give my views on the race plus a couple of other horses to follow.
Let's get into it.
Wal Buck’s Ready to Thrive Over Extreme Trip
1:25 Newcastle - 3m6f (3m5f190y) BetMGM Handicap Chase
This marathon handicap chase looks a proper test of stamina and offers several unexposed stayers the chance to step forward, and Wal Buck’s appeals as the one with the most untapped potential. The six-year-old shaped like a thorough stayer last season, notably when running out a decisive winner over 3m2f. Everything about him, his stride, his attitude, the way he finishes his races suggests these extended distances will bring out further improvement, and this looks the ideal opportunity to prove it.
His seasonal return at Kelso can be safely forgiven. Lucinda Russell’s string were generally needing the run at that stage, and Wal Buck’s found things happening a touch too quickly over the shorter trip on sounder ground. With that pipe-opener behind him, conditions now swing very much in his favour, he tackles a longer distance, gets softer ground, and has the talented Patrick Wadge taking over in the saddle.
The market leader arrives off a stylish Wetherby success just 14 days ago, but he has to back that up in deeper waters and over a far more searching trip. If he proves up to the task, fair play, but Wal Buck’s looks the more progressive option at this stage of his career. With improvement all but guaranteed over this sort of extreme distance, Wal Buck’s is the one to side with.
Horse to follow: Wal Bucks
Odds: 5/1 each each way with BetMGM
Deafening Silence Can Make A Saturday Pay For The Skeltons
3:15 Newcastle - 2m7½f (2m7f91y) BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
The feature handicap of the afternoon brings together a competitive field, but Deafening Silence stands out as the horse with the strongest profile for this Premier Handicap. The Dan Skelton-trained runner returns off a workable mark of 132 and carries just 10st 8lb, a combination that makes him highly interesting on seasonal debut. A Grade 2 winner over hurdles and a winner of a three-mile point, he has already proven that stamina is his strongest asset. Crucially, he has also shown he can win fresh, having previously returned from a 380-day absence to score.
This tilt at a valuable £40,000 prize looks a well-considered piece of placing by the Skelton team, with Harry Skelton taking over in the saddle. His final start last season at Uttoxeter is straightforward enough to forgive, he was burdened with 12 stone after a busy campaign and never looked comfortable. He arrives here with conditions set up perfectly for a bold return. With the stable in good form and his mark looking lenient based on peak hurdles ability, he makes serious appeal. Deafening Silence is very much the one to follow in the Rehearsal Chase.
Horse To Follow: Deafening Silence
Odds: 3/1 with BetMGM
The New Lion Backed to Upset as Constitution Hill Seeks Redemption
2:00 Newcastle - 2m1f BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)
All eyes will be fixed on Newcastle for the Fighting Fifth, where Constitution Hill bids to reclaim his crown and re-establish himself at the top of the two-mile division. Once a phenomenon, producing extraordinary displays between 2022 and 2023 and culminating in his demolition job in the Champion Hurdle, the eight-year-old has since endured a turbulent spell. Falls at Cheltenham and Aintree were followed by a below-par effort at Punchestown, leaving many wondering if we will ever see the same horse again. Connections have been unwavering in their belief that he retains all his old brilliance, and his recent racecourse gallop suggested a spark might indeed be returning. The public are split between hope and doubt, but the sport is a better place when he is firing, and there will be no shortage of supporters wishing to see a revival.
Standing in his way is The New Lion, who attempts to announce himself at the very highest level. Last season’s Challow Hurdle winner and Turners Novices’ Hurdle hero was faultless in every assignment, and this is his first real examination against the established elite. The question is whether he has the raw pace for a sharp two miles, but given the engine he showed over intermediate trips, and the rate at which he’s progressed for Dan and Harry Skelton, it would be no shock if he proves a genuine Champion Hurdle contender.
Adding further intrigue, Willie Mullins sends over Anzadam with Paul Townend making the journey for just this one ride. A dual Grade 3 winner who has been lightly raced and clearly not the easiest to train, he nonetheless carries significant stable confidence in a season where both State Man and (depending on circumstances) Lossiemouth leave Mullins with questions at the top of the division. Whether we’ve seen enough of him to justify a major play here is uncertain, but the raw talent is undeniable.
Nemean Lion’s connections have rolled the dice by supplementing him, and while he’s capable on his day, he faces a steep climb in this company. Golden Ace, last season’s Champion Hurdle heroine, arrives after a flat reappearance and surprisingly finds herself at double-figure odds, but on current evidence, confidence would be brave. Tactically, this could be fascinating. Will Constitution Hill bowl along for a clear sight of his hurdles? Will The New Lion aim to turn it into a stamina test and use his superior staying power? Whatever unfolds, this race has layers of uncertainty.
With questions surrounding all runners, conviction is difficult, but The New Lion appeals most. His cruising speed, professionalism, and proven stamina make him the most dependable profile coming into the race, and he is the one taken to land a breakthrough Grade 1 at two miles.
Whoever wins will be stamping their claim on the champion hurdle division with all roads leading to the Cheltenham festival. My main hope for tomorrow is that all the main players run their respective races and there is no blow outs or unfortunate events come about. We don't often get such talent packed races this early in the season so have this select field against each other here is a real treat and one we should seriously savour. A champion hurdle in November, this what we love this sport for.
Horse To Follow: The New Lion
Odds: 15/8 with BetMGM
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