BGC Warns Ministers About Future Regulation Ahead of Tax Rises

UK gambling trade body the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has warned the betting industry is in a dangerous position with regards to its future, ahead of online gambling tax increases.

In the November Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that from April 2026, remote gaming duty (RGD), paid on online casino betting, will increase from 21% to 40% of gross profit.

There will also be a rise in general betting duty (GBD), paid on online sports betting, from 15% to 25% of gross profit; bets on horseracing will be exempt from this.

“On the brink”

The BGC, which represents more than 90% of retail betting shops, online betting and gaming operators, casinos and bingo operators, has been very vocal in its opposition against the tax increases. In its latest statement on the topic, the BGC used a hyperbolic headline stating the industry is “on the brink”, arguing this will distort player behaviour and drive consumers towards the black market.

Grainne Hurst, BGC CEO, referenced analysis from Frontier Economics which shows up to 1.5 million people a year in Great Britain are already gambling on unlicensed sites, staking up to £4.3 billion a year on the black market; this research was commissioned by the BGC.

Hurst said:

“The Treasury’s decision to hike taxes on online betting and gaming is not just short-sighted but dangerous, particularly given the scale of regulatory reform the sector is already delivering in good faith. Those reforms were designed to protect consumers within a safe, regulated market.

"Piling significant new taxes on top risks achieving the opposite, driving customers away from regulated operators and towards the black market.”

EY forecasts

The BGC has also commissioned research on what the impact of the tax rises could be. In October, prior to the November Budget, Ernst & Young (EY) made a series of forecasts based on various possibilities of what the increases could be.

In one model, based on the Institute of Public Policy Research’s recommendation of a 50% RGD and 25% GBD, EY forecast about 40,000 jobs could be impacted, with £8.4 billion in  betting stakes moving to the black market.

This would mean £290 million in tax revenue would be lost, and excise revenue of £1.06 billion for operators would be gone. While those tax rates are not exactly what was confirmed by Reeves, this model was the closest.

Industry braces for impact

Following the announcement of the tax increases, several of the UK’s leading operators announced how they could be impacted. Flutter Entertainment, owner of Paddy Power and Sky Bet, expects the increases will cost the company approximately $320 million (£241.9 million) in fiscal 2026 and $540 million (£408.1 million) in fiscal 2027.

William Hill owner Evoke said its duty costs will increase by £125 million to £135 million per year after the tax rises are fully implemented, with about £80 million of the pre-mitigation impact arising in FY26. Meanwhile, Entain, owner of Ladbrokes and Coral, has forecast the changes will cost the company £200 million per year before mitigations are taken into account.

Why is the BGC doing this?

The BGC’s latest move this could be seen as the beginning of a campaign to try and prevent further regulatory measures which could have an even greater financial impact on operators.

This appeared to be the case when Hurst said:

“The choices facing ministers this year are stark.

“They can double down on a Treasury-led approach that prioritises short-term revenue while fuelling the growth of the black market. Or they can recognise that safer gambling, consumer protection and tax receipts all depend on a competitive, regulated sector.”