Gambling.com Views “More Opportunity” in the UK Despite Tax Increases

Gambling.com still sees the UK as potentially presenting increased opportunities, despite the upcoming online tax increases, according to Co-founder and COO Kevin McCrystle.

McCrystle was speaking on an earnings call after Gambling.com released its financial results for Q4 and FY 2025. The affiliate posted revenue of $165.4 million for the full year (£124.7 million), which went up 30%, and adjusted EBITDA of £58.01 million, up 19%. Gambling.com said regulatory headwinds in the UK will negatively affect revenue and EBITDA in 2026.

From April, operators will have to pay a significantly higher rate of remote gaming duty, paid on online casino bets, which will rise from 21% of gross gaming yield (GGY) to 40%.

In addition, general betting duty, paid on online sports bets, will go up from 15% of GGY to 25%, in April 2027; bets on horseracing will be exempt from this.

While affiliates such as Gambling.com are not impacted by these taxes directly, operators are expected to make cuts to their marketing budgets as a result of the increased in tax burden, which in turn will impact their dealings with affiliates.

“More of an opportunity”

McCrystle was asked about his thoughts on opportunities in the UK market following the tax increases, and whether he in fact sees it as a positive if tier two and three operators are squeezed out of the market. According to McCrystle, the overall size of the market should be able to withstand the impact.

McCrystle said:

“We are starting to see the impact and have seen the impact of the UK market changes. It’s a mix of a few different things. There will be some brands that leave the market, but overall, there’s hundreds of brands in the market, and if some leave, it’s still a very robust market. We think if anything, it will be more of an opportunity for us, if some competitors do decide to exit the market as well.

“There’s potentially some opportunity for pricing to go down a little bit. The traffic struggles that we’ve seen have also impacted the operators, and there’s some brands that we expect actually may need to increase pricing, though the macro forces will force it down for some of the top brands in the market as well.”

Budget cuts

Following the announcement of the impending tax increases by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the November Budget, Flutter Entertainment, owner of Paddy Power, Betfair and Sky Bet, said it would mitigate the approximate £240 million shortfall in 2026 and approximate £400 million shortfall in 2027 as a result of the increases by reducing operational, promotional and marketing spend.

William Hill owner Evoke also mentioned reduced marketing spend as a mitigation lever, in an attempt to make up for the £125 million to £135 million per year this will cost the company after the tax rises are fully implemented, with about £80 million of the pre-mitigation impact arising in FY26.

What happens next?

While McCrystle mentioned the overall size of the market, the real test will be whether operators are willing to offer the same commission structures following the tax increases as they are currently. While the tier one operators will still be expected to utilise affiliate marketing, this spend is very likely to be impacted.