Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner Says Only a Minor UK Tax Hike Can Be Managed

The Gambling Commissioner and Executive Director for the Government of Gibraltar has waded in on the potential online gambling tax increase debate in the UK, arguing there is only a small amount of room for a remote gaming duty increase without causing clear damage to the sector.

Andrew Lyman posted on LinkedIn about the much-debated remote betting and gaming duty (RBGD), which is expected to be announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the Autumn Budget on November 26. The RBGD would replace the current system of three separate remote betting taxes.

There has been plenty of discussion within the industry about what the RBGD rate should be. In September, 101 Labour MPs called for a rate of 50% of gross profit. Former Prime Minister and Chancellor Gordon Brown has reiterated his calls for a gambling tax hike, and wants it to make up the cost of the government scrapping the two-child benefit cap.

Gibraltar speaks up

Lyman, who has held senior legal and compliance roles at the Gambling Commission, the Association of British Bookmakers and William Hill, acknowledged he has not previously given his opinion on the topic publicly.

This is primarily due to his role being primarily a regulatory one, but he felt compelled to opine on the topic as he said UK tax rises can indirectly impact Gibraltar’s economy, with gambling contributing about 25% of Gibraltar’s gross domestic product.

Lyman referenced the Treasury Committee’s report last week which accused the industry of scaremongering about the potential impact of the RBGD when he posted: “Regardless of what people think about the industry, normal economic theory applies to the sector and it is not ‘scaremongering’ when it references (on the basis of valid external analysis) the likelihood of job losses and cost reduction to combat loss of profit.”

Some room for RGD increase

Currently, remote gaming duty (RGD) is set at 21% of gross profit on games of chance. There is also pool betting duty of 15% of gross profit on bets not at fixed odds apart from those on horse and dog racing, and general betting duty (GBD) is set at 15% of gross profit on sports bets.

Lyman believes taxes could remain separate, and did concede there could be some wiggle room for an increase, within reason. He stated:

“My view is that there is little room in the betting duty rate (15% is just about optimal), but there may be a little ‘juice’ in the RGD rate (but no more that 4-5 percentage points).

“Above that, the pips will be beyond squeaking and there will be genuine pain. Pain will mean not just reduced growth, but as cogent examples demonstrate, tax yield would reduce in the medium term (perhaps in the shorter term).”

Black market threat

Last month, a report published by Ernst & Young, commissioned by the Betting & Gaming Council, forecast more than £1 billion in annual revenue could be lost to the black market if a tax rate of 50% of gross profit is brought in, and that 40,000 jobs could be at risk.

Lyman wrote the risk of a rising black market in the UK is “real and apparent”, and also warned: “There is a tipping point and the nearer RGD gets to 30%, the more amplified the economic impact and the chances of policy failure and irrecoverable damage to the sector. Once the regulated sector is gone it’s gone!”