Matchbook Will Become First UK Regulated Prediction Markets Operator

Betting exchange operator Matchbook is set to launch the first regulated prediction markets in the UK in January 2026, in a move which will act as a test run before launching prediction markets in the US.

According to Bloomberg, Matchbook’s initial focus will be on sports-related outcomes, and will not deviate from the types of markets players can already bet on at Matchbook. The technology will also be deployed as a white-label product for EasyBet, the gambling arm of the business group founded by Stelios Haji-Ioannou, Founder of airline EasyJet.

Matchbook is licensed in Great Britain by the Gambling Commission, and has established itself in the betting exchange space, where players can bet and lay on sports events against each other and the operator takes a commission from each bet. Matchbook is set to offer prediction markets under its Gambling Commission license.

The US is evidently becoming part of Matchbook’s focus. In September, RSBIX LLC, Matchbook’s US partner, filed an application with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), seeking approval to launch an exchange.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets have rapidly become popular across the US, in part due to the simplified “Yes/No” form of bets they offer.  In the prediction market format, participants trade contracts where the payoffs are tied to a future event. The odds shift based on the betting activity from players.

Prediction markets are also fare more broad than general sports betting, as they offer markets in areas such as culture, politics, crypto and economics. An example of a prediction market bet would be a player betting Yes or No on whether President Donald Trump will attend another football game this year. If 80% of bettors vote Yes, then the Yes bet will likely cost $0.80 and the No bet will cost closer to $0.20.

Kalshi and Polymarket have become two of the standout names in the space, but more established sports betting names are following suit. Earlier this month, operator Fanatics moved into the space with the launch of Fanatics Markets, which went live in 24 states. FanDuel and DraftKings, the big two sports betting operators in the US, are also planning to launch prediction-market offerings in the coming weeks.

Legal controversy

Prediction markets have presented a number of legal and regulatory issues across the US. They can be operated under a license from the CFTC, and operators have not sought licensing from a state’s gaming regulator like with traditional sports betting.

In November, the CFTC gave permission to Polymarket to operate in all 50 US states. This followed a federal judge granting Kalshi a preliminary injunction in New Jersey in April, finding the CFTC’s jurisdiction likely pre-empted the state’s gambling laws. This week, Kalshi, along with fellow prediction markets operators Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood and Underdog announced launching the Coalition for Prediction Markets.

Some states, including Washington State and Louisiana, have made clear they do not authorise prediction markets. A number of other states have sought to shut down prediction markets, including New York, New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland, Arizona and Illinois. FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics recently left the American Gaming Association, due to the industry body’s position opposing prediction markets.

What does this mean for the UK?

It is not expected the same legal issues will be caused in the UK, as sports betting is regulated across the country and there currently are no signs of Matchbook wishing to offer markets outside that realm.

However, Matchbook’s launch could beg the question as to whether separate regulations should be drafted for prediction markets.