UK Betting Receipts Forecast Reduced by £200 Million for 2025-26

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has lowered its forecast for betting and gaming receipts in 2025-26 to £3.8 billion, although the total is predicted to increase to £6 billion in the coming years, with online tax increases set to be introduced.

In a previous forecast, published in November, the OBR said betting and gaming receipts were expected to raise £4 billion in 2025-26. However, this has now been reduced by £200 million. The total of £3.8 billion would be representative of 0.1% of the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Based on the latest available figures released by British regulator the Gambling Commission, operators generated £8.69 billion in gross gambling yield (GGY) for the six months from the beginning of April 2025 to the end of September 2025.

In the 2024-25 financial year, total GGY for the industry was £16.8 billion, and total betting and gaming duty receipts were £3.6 billion. This means that should the OBR’s forecast be correct, the total collected in receipts will increase by 5% for 2025-26.

The currently publicly available data regarding British operator GGY across all gambling formats runs up to the end of September last year, and the data for the third and fourth quarter of 2025-26 is yet to be released.

It is therefore possible the OBR’s forecast could have been reduced due to new operator information the OBR has accessed since that previous forecast that was published in November.

A new landscape from 2026-27

In April 2026, remote gaming duty (RGD), paid on online casino bets, will increase from 21% of GGY to 40%. A further increase will be implemented from April 2027, when general betting duty (GBD), paid on online sports bets, will rise from 15% of GGY to 25%; bets on horseracing will be exempt from this.

The 2025-26 betting and gaming receipt forecast does not include the impending online tax increases, as the UK tax year runs from April to March, meaning the first of these increases will not be introduced until the start of the 2026-27 tax year.

An increase to £6 billion

According to the OBR, receipts are likely to increase to £6 billion by 2030-31 (0.2% of GDP), with about two thirds of this upturn being driven by the upcoming changes to online betting taxes.

When the new plans were announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the Autumn Budget in November, the government predicted this would generate additional revenue of more than £1 billion per year for the state by 2029/30.

However, these figures could be impacted if the number of operators paying tax decreases, and if consumers are driven towards the black market.

The Treasury has forecast the tax changes could lead to a £500 million rise in unlicensed gambling activity. At last week’s annual general meeting for UK industry trade body the Betting and Gaming Council, CEO Grainne Hurst said the Treasury’s admission was “incredulous.”

In October, prior to the November Budget, Ernst & Young (EY) made a series of forecasts based on various possibilities of what the increases could be, with the research being commissioned by the BGC.

In one model, based on the Institute of Public Policy Research’s recommendation of a 50% RGD and 25% GBD, EY forecast about 40,000 jobs could be impacted, with £8.4 billion in  betting stakes moving to the black market. This would mean £290 million in annual tax revenue would be lost.