UK Illegal Gambling Spend Forecast to Double to £33bn by 2028

The amount staked with illegal gambling websites from players based in the UK is set to double by 2028, and would mark a 5x increase in the space of a decade, according to an H2 Gambling Capital study.

The study has found black market stakes are set to increase from £16.6 billion for 2025 to £33 billion by 2028. This follows the release of previous research publicised this month, which projected the spend at illegal gambling operators had already more than tripled between 2019 and 2025, with the illegal spend in 2019 being about £5 billion.

Taking a 19% share

In the regulated market, turnover for remote betting in 2024/25 was £138.52 billion. If this number were to remain around similar levels in the following four years, this would mean the illegal market would be 24% of the size of the regulated market, and the illegal market would have a 19% share of the overall market when adding the two figures together.

Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of industry trade body the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), said: “These forecasts are a wake-up call. The black market is not a distant threat; it is growing fast, becoming more visible, and attracting billions of pounds in stakes from British customers. By 2028, almost one in five pounds staked online could be with illegal operators.

“These sites pay no UK tax, support no British jobs, and offer none of the protections that exist in the regulated sector. The lesson for policymakers is clear. If the regulated market is made less competitive through higher taxes or intrusive checks, customers will not stop betting; they will simply move to the black market.”

Financial risk assessments

In its statement reacting to the results of the study, the BGC referenced how this came as regulator the Gambling Commission was planning to consider proposals for financial risk assessments (FRAs) at its board meeting on Thursday.

Hurst said: “Any policy that unintentionally drives even more customers towards illegal operators will undermine player safety and damage the regulated sector. That is why ministers and regulators must avoid measures that hand an advantage to the black market.”

This week, the Commission’s Director of Policy Ian Angus clarified FRAs are not the same as affordability checks. FRAs are proposed as a means of identifying high-spending remote gamblers who may be in financial difficulties. The assessments would not assess a player’s income or how much an individual could afford to gamble.

In contrast, affordability checks could also be passed, where financial checks would be triggered when players spend a certain amount. Light touch vulnerability checks were initially triggered when a player spent £500 in a month as part of a trial that began in August 2024, and from February 28, 2025, this decreased to £150 spend in a month.

It is difficult for the BGC to quantify the extent to which affordability checks could push players to the black market. However, in April, the BGC announced the results of a poll it commissioned YouGov to carry out, showing 65% of betting customers are not willing to provide documents such as bank statements to prove their affordability.

Head of Illegal Markets

Earlier this month, the Commission began advertising for the position of Head of Illegal Markets. The successful applicant will be tasked with leading high-profile and criminal investigations, providing oversight to the Commission’s illegal markets response, and leading on covert surveillance, among other duties.