UK Offshore GGY to More than Double to £1.4bn by 2031, Report Forecasts

Offshore gross gambling yield (GGY) in the UK has grown by more than three times since 2019, and is expected to more than double to £1.4 billion by 2031, which will in part be accelerated by the increase in remote gaming duty (RGD), according to a report by H2 Gambling Capital.

The report, published in collaboration with industry trade body the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), showed offshore GGY rose from £200 million for 2019 to £685 million for 2025, with offshore turnover growing from £5 billion to £16.6 billion in the same period. By 2031, offshore turnover is set to reach £36 billion.

RGD increase driving migration

From the start of April, remote gaming duty, paid on online casino bets, was raised from 21% of GGY to 40%. In addition, general betting duty, paid on online sports bets, will increase from 15% of GGY to 25% in April 2027; bets on horseracing will be exempt from this. According to H2 Gambling Capital, this combined with lower onshore return-to-player (RTP) is expected to drive offshore migration.

While the UK iGaming market remains predominantly onshore, offshore has been taking an increasing share of it. GGY channelisation dropped from 97% onshore in 2019 to 92% in 2025. GGY channelisation is forecast to drop to 85% by 2031. Total UK online GGY is expected to climb to £9.6 billion by 2031.

The RGD increase is not expected to have a significant impact on total iGaming GGY for 2026, falling just 1% to £5.64 billion, as a result of operators maintaining promotional spend in the short-term and shift to a lower RTP for online slots. Maximum stakes on online slots were cut in 2025, to £5 for adults aged 25 and over, and to £2 for adults aged between 18 and 24.

Problems in 2027

However, a greater impact from the RGD rise is expected in 2027, with iGaming GGY set to fall to £5.39 billion, down 5%. This would mark an overall 6% decline across two years and would be an 11% decrease in real terms. The impact of the increase in GBD was not specified in the report, although online sports betting is not as heavily influenced by factors like marketing and bonusing, so perhaps less likely to lose players to offshore.

The increase in offshore activity since 2019 could potentially be explained by the onshore market becoming more restrictive. In 2020, gambling with credit cards was banned, and this was followed by the 2023 Gambling White Paper, which was one of the most significant publications in the history of gambling in the UK, setting out more than 60 proposals to update the country’s gambling laws.

Among the terms recommended were affordability checks, in an attempt to protect players spending a certain amount within a certain timeframe, improved identification checks, a statutory levy, and the cap on maximum stakes on online slots. Earlier this month, regulator the Gambling Commission confirmed the introduction of financial risk assessments (FRAs), which will aim to identify players experiencing financial difficulties.

Further H2 info

In May, a separate report released by H2 Gambling Capital showed the amount staked with illegal gambling websites from players based in the UK is set to double to £33 billion by 2028, and would mark a 5x increase in the space of a decade.

That report suggested the illegal market is set to take an approximate 19% share of the overall online market within four years.