
15th-placed Crystal Palace travel to the King Power Stadium on Wednesday night to face 2nd-bottom Leicester City. The hosts are heading into the game off the back of 5 straight Premier League defeats.
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s Foxes are marooned in the bottom three, two points behind 17th-placed Wolves and safety, with the Dutchman winning only 1 of his 7 PL matches since taking charge.
An upturn in form for Oliver Glasner and Palace has seen them pull 5 points clear of the relegation zone. After suffering just 1 defeat in the last 9 in the league, and currently unbeaten in their last 4 in all competitions, things are finally soaring upwards for The Eagles.
Despite winning only 4 of their 20 fixtures, Glasner’s men have also actually lost the fewest number of games in the bottom half, with 7 defeats.
In contrast, The Foxes have only managed 3 wins all campaign and have lost 12 in the PL, the joint-2nd highest along with Wolves. Only Southampton have tasted defeat more times.
It’s no surprise Leicester City are floundering in the relegation zone with just 1 win in 12 and 0 clean sheets in any of the last 16 games. It’s been a woeful run of form for The Foxes, who are without a shut-out since a 1-0 victory against Bournemouth in early October, their only clean sheet all season.
By contrast, Palace have gained the 6th-highest number of points across the last 5 matches and their recent run of form has steered them clear of the dreaded drop zone after a tricky start to the campaign.
With 44 goals conceded, just 1 fewer than Wolves, van Nistelrooy’s men have the 2nd worst goals-against-per-game ratio of all 20 top-flight sides and have conceded a staggering 2.20 goals per match this term.
No side has shipped more goals than Leicester’s 14 in the last 5 fixtures, and this vulnerability in defence has been for all to see since the beginning of the season.
Alarmingly The Foxes have let in 2 or more goals in 10 of the last 11 matches in all competitions. That’s the worst record in the top flight over this run of games. I expect Palace to target the susceptible backline and take aim at the Foxes at any given opportunity.
Glasner’s Palace, on the other hand, have the joint 8th-best defence away from Selhurst Park. The 11 goals The Eagles have conceded away is the same as leaders Liverpool and 2 less than champions Manchester City.
Furthermore, Palace seem to have struck the right balance between defence and attack now after their struggles in front of goal earlier in the season.
The Eagles have scored in 13 of their previous 15 games in all competitions. In over half of these, they have found the net on 2 or more occasions, a stark contrast to the measly 5 goals they managed in the first 8 PL matches.
Leicester City have the 4th-highest number of yellow cards overall this campaign and the 3rd-highest total at home. Therefore, it wouldn’t be a surprise if referee Robert Madley continued this trend on Wednesday night.
Palace have received the joint-8th highest number of cards with 45, over half of these coming when The Eagles are on their travels.
Madley isn’t afraid to brandish the cards and get the notebook out, with the referee already showing 38 yellows in just 8 PL games he’s officiated this term. This is an average of 4.75 yellow cards per game.
Given this can be deemed a bit of a relegation scrap, I would expect a tense and tough affair.
Looking into the array of markets available for this one, I am firstly drawn towards a Palace victory. Mainly because of Leicester’s rotten recent results of losing 8 of the last 10 in the Premier League and the fact that they have lost 5 of their 10 matches on home soil.
AKBets are offering the best odds of 19/20 with Ladbrokes on Palace claiming a vital win and it would be difficult to argue against them leaving the King Power with all 3 points and adding to van Nistelrooy’s woes come full-time.
However, at the prices, I’m happy to let that one go against a side who more than often find the net. Despite The Eagles flying back up the table in recent games, the fact they have only won twice on the road this term is just enough to avoid me tipping this to pay out.
Instead, the basis for my bet is taken from looking at the discipline side of the game (or lack of it). With The Foxes scrapping for every point down at the bottom of the league, it could lend itself to desperation and possibly tempers boiling over as the tackles mount up.
For Leicester to have over 2.5 cards in the match, Ladbrokes are offering the best price of 23/20. There does look to be value with this bet, particularly as The Foxes have averaged 2.6 cards in their 10 home games this term.
I am also considering Leicester’s defensive midfielder Boubakary Soumare 12/5 with Unibet to be shown a card during the 90 minutes.
The Frenchman has already received the most cards out of all the Leicester squad, with 8 yellow cards in 13 appearances. That’s 3 more than the next highest, his teammate Facundo Buonanotte.
Taking into account the fact he has played in 10 of The Foxes' last 11 fixtures, and the pressure and desperation they will be playing under, the odds are tempting.
As my main bet, I’m backing Madley to produce over 4.5 cards in total during this clash, best priced at evens with Ladbrokes.
It’s not only van Nistelrooy’s men who have the high card count. Glasner’s Palace aren’t afraid to stick the boot in either, with an average of 2.6 cards per game away from home. Moreover, their 22 tackles per game is the most of any side and is proof of how the game could go in my opinion.
Namely, midfield battler Will Hughes has received the highest total yellow cards with 7. This is 2 more than Daniel Munoz and Marc Guehi, so I expect the man in the middle to be writing more cards again during this one.
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